Agent-based model simulations of future changes in migration flows for Burkina Faso

Attempts to quantify the numbers of migrants generated by changes in climate have commonly been calculated by projecting physical climate changes on an exposed population. These studies generally make simplistic assumptions about the response of an individual to variations in climate. However, empirical evidence of environmentally induced migration does not support such a structural approach and recognises that migration decisions are usually both multi-causal and shaped through individual agency. As such, agent-based modelling offers a robust method to simulate the autonomous decision making process relating to environmental migration. The Theory of Planned Behaviour provides a basis that can be used to effectively break down the reasoning process relating to the development of a behavioural intention. By developing an agent-based model of environmental migration for Burkina Faso from the basis of a combination of such theoretical developments and data analysis we further investigate the role of the environment in the decision to migrate using scenarios of future demographic, economic, social, political, and climate change in a dryland context. We find that in terms of climate change, it can be seen that that change to a drier environment produces the largest total and international migration fluxes when combined with changes to inclusive and connected social and political governance. While the lowest international migration flows are produced under a wetter climate with exclusive and diverse governance scenarios. In summary this paper illustrates how agent-based models incorporating the Theory of Planned Behaviour can be used to project evidence based future changes in migration in response to future demographic, economic social and climate change.     

Structural relaxation in silicate melts and non-Newtonian melt rheology in geologic processes

The timescale of structural relaxation in a silicate melt defines the transition from liquid (relaxed) to glassy (unrelaxed) behavior. Structural relaxation in silicate melts can be described by a relaxation time, , consistent with the observation that the timescales of both volume and shear relaxation are of the same order of magnitude. The onset of significantly unrelaxed behavior occurs 2 log₁₀ units of time above . In the case of shear relaxation, the relaxation time can be quantified using the Maxwell relationship for a viscoelastic material; _S = _S/G (where _S is the shear relaxation time, G is the shear modulus at infinite frequency and _S is the zero frequency shear viscosity). The value of G known for SiO₂ and several other silicate glasses. The shear modulus, G , and the bulk modulus, K , are similar in magnitude for every glass, with both moduli being relatively insensitive to changes in temperature and composition. In contrast, the shear viscosity of silicate melts ranges over at least ten orders of magnitude, with composition at fixed temperature, and with temperature at fixed composition. Therefore, relative to _S, G may be considered a constant (independent of composition and temperature) and the value of _S, the relaxation time, may be estimated directly for the large number of silicate melts for which the shear viscosity is known.For silicate melts, the relaxation times calculated from the Maxwell relationship agree well with available data for the onset of the frequency-dependence (dispersion) of acoustic velocities, the onset of non-Newtonian viscosities, the scan-rate dependence of the calorimetric glass transition, with the timescale of an oxygen diffusive jump and with the Si-O bond exchange frequency obtained from ²⁹Si NMR studies.     

Predicting the optical properties of the West Florida Shelf: resolving the potential impacts of a terrestrial boundary condition on the distribution of colored dissolved and particulate matter

Predicting the distribution of Inherent Optical Properties (IOPs) in the water column requires predicting the physical, chemical, biological, and optical interactions in a common framework that facilitates feedback responses. This work focuses on the development of ecological and optical interaction equations embedded in a 2D hindcast model of the shallow water optical properties on the West Florida Shelf (WFS) during late summer/fall of 1998. This 2D simulation of the WFS includes one case with a Loop Current intrusion above the 40-m isobath and one with the Loop Current intrusion in addition to a periodic terrestrial nutrient supply below the 10-m isobath. The ecological and optical interaction equations are an expansion of a previously developed model for open ocean conditions (Bissett, W.P., Carder, K.L., Walsh, J.J., Dieterle, D.A., 1999a. Carbon cycling in the upper waters of the Sargasso Sea: II. Numerical simulation of apparent and inherent optical properties. Deep-Sea Research, Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers, 46 (2), 271–317; Bissett, W.P., Walsh, J.J., Dieterle, D.A., Carder, K.L., 1999b. Carbon cycling in the upperwaters of the Sargasso Sea: I. Numerical simulation of differential carbon and nitrogen fluxes. Deep-Sea Research, Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers, 46 (2), 205–269). The expansion includes an increase in the number of elemental pools to include silica, phosphorus, and iron, an increase in the number of phytoplankton functional groups, and a redevelopment of the Dissolved Organic Matter (DOM) and Colored Dissolved Organic Matter (CDOM) interaction equations. It was determined from this simulation that while the Loop Current alone was able to predict the water column conditions present during the summer, the Loop Current alone was not enough to simulate the magnitude of optical constituents present in the fall of 1998 when compared to satellite imagery. Simulating terrestrial inorganic and organic nutrients and CDOM pulses coinciding with significant meteorological events and high freshwater pulses released from the major rivers feeding the WFS were required to accurately predict the distribution and scale of the inherent optical properties at the surface during the fall months. Modeling the in situ light field for phytoplankton growth and community competition requires addressing the CDOM optical constituent explicitly. The majority of the annually modeled CDOM on WFS was created via in situ production; however, it was also rapidly removed via advection and photochemical destruction. A pulse of terrestrial nutrient and organic color was required to simulate the dramatic changes in surface color seen in satellite imagery on the WFS. The dynamics of the biogeochemical portion of the simulation demonstrate the importance of nonstoichiometric supplies of terrestrial nutrients on the WFS to the prediction of nutrient and CDOM fluxes.     

Locally modified surface winds on linear dunes as derived from directional raingauges

The study deals with local airflow patterns induced by 12–16 m high, partly vegetated dunes, under various prevailing wind conditions. Detailed empirical data were derived by means of an unconventional use of directional raingauges. The utility and accuracy of the method have been previously tested in a combined empirical and numerical study over ridges on a similar scale. Results are presented on the nature, extent and intensity of locally modified patterns of surface flow and on their dependence on wind conditions and slope inclination. Results may serve to verify or refine existing perceptions or models of the flow affecting sand movement over dunes. For example, deflected surface wind flow and even stationary vortices were found to form under winds with resultant angles of incidence of only 5–10° relative to the axes of the dunes, and on slopes inclined only 12–15°, i.e. lower angles than often assumed in previous studies of dune morphology. Various effects of the resulting surface flow on the dune ecosystem are also referred to, e.g. the distribution of settling dust and seed dispersal. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A methodology for historical assessment of compliance with environmental water allocations: lessons from the Crocodile (East) River,South Africa

Abstract

Environmental flow provisions are a legal obligation under South Africa’s National Water Act (1998) where they are known as the “ecological reserve”, which is now being realized in river operations. This article presents a semi-quantitative method, based on flow–duration curve (FDC) analysis, used to assess the compliance of the Crocodile (East) River with the reserve in an historical context. Using both monthly and daily average flow data, we determine the extent and magnitude of non-compliant flows against environmental water requirements (EWRs) for three periods (1960–1983, 1983–2000, and 2000–2010). The results suggest a high degree of non-compliance, with the reserve increasing with each of these periods (14%, 35%, and 39% of the time), respectively, where effects were most pronounced in the low-flow season. The results also suggest that, whilst the magnitudes of reserve infringements for the latter period are relatively high, there appears to have been some improvement since the implementation of the river’s operating rules.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman

Citation Riddell, E., Pollard, S., Mallory, S., and Sawunyama, T., 2014. A methodology for historical assessment of compliance with environmental water allocations: lessons from the Crocodile (East) River, South Africa. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 831–843.     

Parameterizations of the daytime friction velocity,temperature scale,and upslope flow over gently inclined terrain in calm synoptic conditions

A set of new parameterizations for the friction velocity and temperature scale over gently sloped terrain and in calm synoptic conditions are theoretically derived. The friction velocity is found to be proportional to the product of the square root of the total accumulated heating in the boundary layer and the sinusoidal function of the slope angle, while the temperature scale is proportional to the product of the boundary layer depth, the sinusoidal function of the slope angle and the potential temperature gradient in the free atmosphere. Using the new friction velocity parameterization, together with a parameterization of eddy diffusivity and an initial potential temperature profile around sunrise, an improved parameterization for the thermally induced upslope flow profile is derived by solving the Prandtl equations. The upslope flow profile is found to be simply proportional to the friction velocity.     

Uptake and depuration of PAHs and chlorinated pesticides by semi-permeable membrane devices (SPMDs) and green-lipped mussels (Perna viridis)

Semi-batch seawater experiments were conducted to follow the uptake and release of selected PAHs (anthracene, fluorathene, pyrene and B[a]P) and organochlorine pesticides (α-HCH, aldrin, dieldrin, p,p′-DDT) in semi-permeable membrane devices (SPMDs) and green-lipped mussels (Perna viridis). Mathematical models were applied to describe the uptake and elimination curves of the contaminants for SPMDs, and kinetic parameters, such as uptake rate constants, and equilibrium triolein/water partitioning coefficients were calculated. SPMD data showed a good fit to estimate rate constant and partition coefficient equations, but only those contaminants which partitioned mainly in the dissolved phase (α-HCH and dieldrin) were well explained for mussels. Poor conformity of the other contaminants indicated mussels uptake by routes other than diffusion, such as ingestion of algae. An apparent equilibrium state was only noted for α-HCH in mussels. Aldrin was not detected in mussels in the first few days of exposure, indicating potential metabolism of this compound. B[a]P was not detected in the triolein of SPMDs, which suggests that the membrane may act as a reservoir. Loss of spiked B[a]P from the triolein was evident in a depuration experiment, which may indicate transfer to the membrane. Rate constants for mussels were higher than those for SPMDs, but the reverse was true for partition coefficients. Overall, mussels and SPMDs had similar uptake rates for all compounds in this study, excluding p,p′-DDT and dieldrin. Contaminant elimination took place more rapidly in mussels, implying that SPMDs are better candidates for detecting episodic discharge of organic contaminants.     

Seasonal controls on sediment transport and deposition in Lake Ohau,South Island,New Zealand: Implications for a high‐resolution Holocene palaeoclimate reconstruction

Laminated sediments in Lake Ohau, Mackenzie Basin, New Zealand, offer a potential high‐resolution climate record for the past 17 kyr. Such records are particularly important due to the relative paucity of detailed palaeoclimate data from the Southern Hemisphere mid‐latitudes. This paper presents outcomes of a study of the sedimentation processes of this temperate lake setting. Hydrometeorological, limnological and sedimentological data were collected over a 14 month period between 2011 and 2013. These data indicate that seasonality in the hydrometeorological system in combination with internal lake dynamics drives a distinct seasonal pattern of sediment dispersal and deposition on a basin‐wide scale. Sedimentary layers that accumulate proximal to the lake inflow at the northern end of the lake form in response to discrete inflow events throughout the year and display an event stratigraphy. In contrast, seasonal change in the lake system controls accumulation of light (winter) and dark (summer) laminations at the distal end of the lake, resulting in the preservation of varves. This study documents the key processes influencing sediment deposition throughout Lake Ohau and provides fundamental data for generating a high‐resolution palaeoclimate record from this temperate lake.