气候变化影响的最新认知

政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第二工作组于2007年4月6日正式发布了第四次评估报告,该报告客观、全面而审慎地评估了气候变化已有的和未来的可能影响。现有观测证据表明,人为增暖可能已对许多自然和生物系统产生了可辨别的影响,但由于适应以及非气候因子的作用,许多影响还难以辨别。21世纪中期,某些中纬度和热带干旱地区年平均河流径流量和可用水量会减少10%～30%;如果全球平均温度增幅超过1.5～2.5℃,目前所评估的20%～30%动植物物种可能面临灭绝的风险会增大;从全球角度看,局地平均温度增加1～3℃,预计粮食生产潜力会增加,但若超过这一范围,则会减少。兼顾适应和减缓的措施能够降低气候变化相关风险。     

“一带一路”区域气候变化事实、影响及可能风险

“一带一路”区域国家经济、政治发展极不平衡,随着全球气候变暖,区域内的自然环境、气候资源、水资源等都将面临着显著而复杂的变化,并且干旱、洪涝等多种气候灾害是“一带一路”区域可持续发展和重大基础设施建设面临的重大威胁之一。目前,“一带一路”倡议已经进入实质性建设阶段,沿线地区的气候变化及其灾害风险关乎“一带一路”倡议能否顺利实施及亚投行的投资安全。在此背景下,2016—2018年中国科学院地球科学学部实施了“‘一带一路’区域气候变化问题”咨询评议项目,项目针对该区域气候变化的事实、未来变化预估、气候变化的可能影响以及带来的潜在风险等问题进行了系统的调研,并开展了若干分析和研究。经过两年的努力,项目组完成了有关进展报告四份,包括一份总报告和三份分报告。本文扼要地概括和介绍了项目取得的主要成果。     

一次大雾天气过程的分析

利用高空、地面探测资料以及卫星云图和天气雷达资料,对2007年11月6日清晨至上午发生在通辽市科尔沁区及通辽市南部科左后旗的一次大雾天气进行了分析。结果表明:这次大雾为辐射雾,因前一日通辽市南部受低空高压脊外围的影响,西南气流将渤海以及南方的水汽输送上来,使通辽市南部有了充沛的水汽储备,加之地面形势以均压区为主,气压梯度小,风速弱,晴朗少云,近地面有逆温层,这些都为辐射雾的形成提供了很好的条件,另外从多普勒雷达产品上也反映了一些雾的特征。     

Aridity/humidity status of land surface in China during the last three decades

To understand regional status and differences is groundwork for researching environmental change, such as regional response to global change, land use/land-cover change, land desertification, and sand/dust storms. At present, geographers are search- ing for driving forces of environmental change and making efforts to reflect human actions on these changes[1―4]. To recognize regional difference, most researches focus on single factor, such as temperature, precipitation, soil and vegetation. Ho…     

Rare earth element geochemistry of the Woxi W–Sb–Au deposit, Hunan Province, South China

The Woxi W–Sb–Au deposit in Hunan, South China, is hosted by Proterozoic metasedimentary rocks, a turbiditic sequence of slightly metamorphosed (greenschist facies), gray-green and purplish red graywacke, siltstone, sandy slate, and slate. The mineralization occurs predominantly (> 70%) as stratabound/stratiform ore layers and subordinately as stringer stockworks. The former consists of rhythmically interbedded, banded to finely laminated stibnite, scheelite, quartz, pyrite and silty clays, whereas the latter occurs immediately beneath the stratabound ore layers and is characterized by numerous quartz + pyrite + gold + scheelite stringer veins or veinlets that are typically either subparallel or subvertical to the overlying stratabound ore layers. The deposit has been the subject of continued debate in regard to its genesis. Rare earth element geochemistry is used here to support a sedimentary exhalative (sedex) origin for the Woxi deposit. The REE signatures of the metasedimentary rocks and associated ores from the Woxi W–Sb–Au deposit remained unchanged during post-depositional processes and were mainly controlled by their provenance. The original ore-forming hydrothermal fluids, as demonstrated by fluid inclusions in quartz from the banded ores, are characterized by variable total REE concentrations (3.5 to 136 ppm), marked LREE enrichment (La_N/Yb_N = 28–248, ∑LREE/∑HREE = 16 to 34) and no significant Eu-anomalies (Eu/Eu = 0.83 to 1.18). They were most probably derived from evolved seawater that circulated in the clastic sediment pile and subsequently erupted on the seafloor. The bulk banded ores are enriched in HREE (La_N/Yb_N = 4.6–11.4, ∑LREE/∑HREE = 3 to 14) and slightly depleted in Eu (Eu/Eu = 0.63 to 1.14) relative to their parent fluids. This is interpreted as indicating the influence of seawater rather than a crystallographic control on REE content of the ores. Within a single ore layer, the degree of HREE enrichment tends to increase upward while the total REE concentrations decrease, reflecting greater influence and dilution of seawater. There is a broad similarity in chondrite-normalized REE patterns and the amount of REE fractionation of the banded ores in this study and exhalites from other sedex-type polymetallic ore deposits, suggesting a similar genesis for these deposits. This conclusion is in agreement with geologic evidence supporting a syngenetic (sedex) model for the Woxi deposit.     

1981-2010 年气候变化对青藏高原实际蒸散的影响

基于1981-2010 年青藏高原80 个气象台站观测数据, 通过改进的LPJ 动态植被模型, 模拟并分析了青藏高原实际蒸散及其与降水的平衡关系(P-E) 的时空变化。研究结果表明, 在过去三十年来青藏高原气候呈现以变暖为主要特征的背景下, 降水量整体略有增加, 潜在蒸散呈减少趋势, 特别是2000 年以前减少趋势显著;青藏高原大部分地区实际蒸散呈增加趋势, P-E的变化趋势呈西北增加-东南减少的空间格局。大气水分蒸散发能力降低理论上会导致实际蒸散减少, 而青藏高原大部分地区实际蒸散增加, 主要影响因素是降水增加, 实际蒸散呈增加(减少) 趋势的区域中86% (73%) 的降水增加(减少)。     

Advances in terrestrial system research in China

Land surface is of spatial-temporal heterogeneity. Terrestrial system (TS) comprehensively studies on land surface and physical regionalization objectively describes geographical zonation of the system. China has a vast area with apparent spatial variations in resources and environmental conditions, which highly influence on socio-economic development. In this paper, progress of the TS studies in China is overviewed and research priorities in the near future are prospected. Since the 1950s, China has paid great attention to the TS study as its socio-economic development, and conducted research on physical geographical regionalization, eco-geographical regionalization and comprehensive regionalization. Along with the deepening of global change research, dynamics of TS have been highly concerned. During the studies, methodology has been developed from qualitative research of integration of experts’ brainpower gradually to quantitative research based on field observation and experiments of the natural processes, including physical, chemical and biological processes, as well as application of information technology and mathematical simulation. In the near future, TS would combine with the ideology, objectives and key researches of Future Earth program, to focus on the mechanism and regional effects of interaction among land surface elements, the response of TS to global change, the quantitative recognition on regional unit boundary, and the application to TS in sustainable socio-economic development.     

全球变化背景下中国自然地域系统研究前沿

中国地域辽阔,基于陆地表层地域分异规律,开展自然地域系统研究是支撑自然资源有序开发和产业合理布局、保障区域可持续发展的重要基础。本文在总结分析中国自然地域系统及相关方法研究进展的基础上,探讨全球变化背景下自然地域系统研究前沿问题。1950s以来,伴随着社会经济发展,中国高度重视自然地域系统研究,包括综合自然区划、生态地理区划和综合区划工作,目前随着全球变化研究的深入,地域系统的动态研究被高度关注。在此过程中,研究方法从以专家智能集成为主的定性研究,逐步发展至以观测、实验和信息技术、数理模拟方法为主的定量研究。随着全球变化研究的日益深入,自然地域系统研究将与未来地球计划的理念、目标和研究内容结合,重点开展陆地表层关键要素相互作用机理及区域效应,地域系统对全球变化的动态响应,陆地表层地域单元界线定量化识别等研究,加强地域系统研究中自然要素与人文要素的结合。     

自然地理学综合研究理论与实践之继承与创新

自然地理综合研究是指将陆地表层地貌、气候、水文、植被、土壤等基本要素融为一体,研究各要素之间总的联系,研究单个要素及其周围现象之间的联系,从而揭示出陆地表层要素相互作用的过程及其形成的格局。这是认识自然地理环境形成和发展的根本途径。地理学家郑度先生,在自然地理综合研究的理论与实践的长期探索中取得开拓性成果,是当代自然地理综合研究的引领者之一。他在青藏高原自然环境的地域分异与格局研究中,构建了高原山地垂直带谱系统,阐明了高海拔区域三维地带性规律,揭示出高原独特的地生态现象及其空间格局,证实并确认高原寒冷干旱的核心区域,提出了青藏高原自然地域系统方案;在自然地域系统综合研究中,建立了适用于山地与高原的自然区划原则和方法,提出中国生态地理区域系统的新方案;在生态建设领域,强调要重视地域分异和尊重自然规律,指出干旱区土地和水资源的开发利用要重视区域发展和环境的协调;基于人类与自然界和谐的理念,他积极推动区域发展中环境伦理的研究和应用。本文回顾分析郑度先生半个多世纪以来,在自然地理学综合研究的理论与实践成果,力图从中参悟郑度先生自然地理综合研究的系统性思想以及开拓进取、探索创新的科研方法。     

过去50年气候变化下中国潜在植被NPP的脆弱性评价

借助动态植被模型IBIS,首先模拟了过去50年（1961-2010年）气候变化下中国潜在植被NPP的动态变化,然后采用IPCC第五次评估报告选定的标准气候态时段（1986-2005年）平均气候状态作为“标准年气候”,并将该气候条件下的潜在植被NPP作为评价基准。通过与基准进行比较,计算每一年潜在植被NPP的波动情况,进而评价该年的气候条件是否使潜在植被“不适应”以及“不适应”的程度,最后根据过去50年的“不适应”次数和程度综合判断气候变化下潜在植被NPP的脆弱性。评价结果显示：在过去50年的气候变化下,天山以南的暖温带荒漠生态系统、北方温带草原生态系统以及青藏高原西部的高寒草原生态系统更容易受到气候变化的不利影响,NPP呈现出较高的脆弱性;而大部分以森林为主的生态系统则不容易受到气候变化的影响,NPP脆弱性较低,其中以常绿阔叶林和针叶林为主的生态系统NPP脆弱性更低。此外,天山以北的温带荒漠生态系统以及青藏高原中部和东部的高寒草原草甸生态系统NPP也呈现出较低的脆弱性。