Identification and categorization of climate change risks

The scientific evidence that climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emission is now incontestable, which may put many social, biological, and geophysical systems in the world at risk. In this paper, we first identified main risks induced from or aggravated by climate change. Then we categorized them applying a new risk categorization system brought forward by Renn in a framework of International Risk Governance Council. We proposed that ＂uncertainty＂ could be treated as the classification criteria. Based on this, we established a quantitative method with fuzzy set theory, in which ＂confidence＂ and ＂likelihood＂, the main quantitative terms for expressing uncertainties in IPCC, were used as the feature parameters to construct the fuzzy membership functions of four risk types. According to the maximum principle, most climate change risks identified were classified into the appropriate risk types. In the mean time, given that not all the quantitative terms are available, a qualitative approach was also adopted as a complementary classification method. Finally, we get the preliminary results of climate change risk categorization, which might iay the foundation for the future integrated risk management of climate change.     

黄河下游悬河决溢风险评价指标体系的构建

针对黄河下游存在决溢风险的现状,根据环境因素对悬河决溢的作用机制,通过对地质构造评价在决溢风险评价中的地位、洪水要素对悬河决溢的影响、不同决溢模式的形成机理进行了分析,从而建立了一套较为系统的黄河下游悬河决溢风险评价指标体系。文中提出了以下观点：1.将洪水要素纳入评价指标体系; 2. 决溢风险评价分为地质构造环境背景评价和决溢情景评价两部分; 3.决溢情景评价与决溢模式相结合; 4. 以不同决溢模式的形成机理为基础确定评价因子。     

沉积盆地中金属成矿与油气成藏的耦合关系

沉积盆地中与油气密切相关的金属矿床主要包括密西西比河谷型(MVT)铅锌矿床、砂页岩型铜-铀矿床、黑色页岩中的金属硫化物矿床、沉积岩容矿的金-锑-砷-汞-铊矿床等。金属矿床与(古)油气藏在空间上的密切共生/伴生关系,暗示了二者成因上的有机联系。在许多MVT铅锌矿床和砂页岩型铜矿床中,与成矿关系密切的原油及其衍生物形成于矿化前,它们为随后的金属成矿直接提供还原硫或充当硫酸盐还原反应的还原剂。在另一些情况下,某些低温热液金属矿床,特别是Au、As、Hg、Sb、Tl矿床与油气表现出同源、同运、同聚的耦合关系,金属成矿与油气成藏同时或近同时进行。与油气具不同耦合关系的金属矿床常表现出不同的特点。与成藏和/或成矿有关的盆地流体大致可分为以碳氢化合物为主的有机流体、以含金属盐水溶液为主的无机流体以及同时富含烃类和金属组分的有机成矿流体3类,盆地中的成矿、成藏作用及其耦合关系受控于这三类流体的演化过程。沉积盆地中金属矿床与油气藏空间上密切的共生/伴生关系以及成矿、成藏过程和机理的相似性,使金属与油气矿产资源的协同勘探和综合预测成为可能。     

非饱和渗流模拟中非均匀空间网格的改进方法

Richards方程在非饱和渗流模拟及其他相关领域应用广泛。在数值求解过程中,可以采用有限差分方法进行数值离散并迭代求解,为了获得较可靠的数值解,常规的均匀网格空间步长往往是较小的。在一些不利数值条件下,如入渗于干燥土壤,迭代计算费时甚至精度也不能得到很好改善。因此,文章提出Chebyshev空间网格改进方法,结合有限差分方法对Richards方程进行数值离散以获得线性方程组,并通过经典的Picard迭代方法进行迭代求解线性方程组以得到Richards方程的数值解。通过均质土和分层土2个不利情况下的非饱和渗流算例,又结合模型解析解和软件Hydrus-1D,对比研究了改进网格方法与均匀网格方法获得数值解的精度。结果表明,提出的Chebyshev网格方法相较于传统的均匀网格,可以在较少的节点数下获得较高的数值精度,又具有较小的计算开销,有较好的应用前景。     

Hyperextended crustal structure of the Qiongdongnan Basin and subsequent magmatic influence from the Hainan mantle plume

Science China Earth Sciences - The Qiongdongnan Basin (QDNB) is a rift basin located in the extension direction of the oceanic ridge of the Northwest Subbasin of the South China Sea. This basin is...     

蒸散发测定方法研究进展

蒸散发过程是水文循环的重要环节, 也是全球能量交换的重要组成部分, 决定了土壤－植被－大气系统中水、热传输过程, 对其进行定量估算是评价陆地生态系统生产力、水源涵养能力、区域耗水及土壤水分运移的基础, 是全球气候变化研究的重要内容。本文根据蒸散发测定思路和方法的不同, 将蒸散发测定按照实测法和模型法两类方法进行总结, 系统回顾了实测法和模型法的不同算法, 评述不同方法的原理和优劣, 并总结和分析了目前蒸散发测定工作中应重点研究的内容, 指出未来蒸散发估算的发展方向, 以期为相关研究的开展提供参考。     

未来气候情景下中国生态地理区域系统温度带的北移(英文)

Despite the well-documented effects of global climate change on terrestrial species' ranges,eco-geographical regions as the regional scale of ecosystems have been poorly studied especially in China with diverse climate and ecosystems.Here we analyse the shift of temperature zones in eco-geographical study over China using projected future climate scenario.Projected climate data with high resolution during 1961-2080 were simulated using regional climate model of PRECIS.The number of days with mean daily temperature above 10℃ and the mean temperature of January are usually regarded as the principal criteria to indicate temperature zones,which are sensitive to climate change.Shifts due to future climate change were calculated by comparing the latitude of grid cells for the future borderline of one temperature zone with that for baseline period(1961-1990).Results indicated that the ranges of Tropical,Subtropical,Warm Temperate and Plateau Temperate Zones would be enlarged and the ranges of Cold Temperate,Temperate and Plateau Sub-cold Zones would be reduced.Cold Temperate Zone would probably disappear at late this century.North borderlines of temperature zones would shift northward under projected future climate change,especially in East China.Farthest shifts of the north boundaries of Plateau Temperate,Subtropical and Warm Temperate Zones would be 3.1°,5.3° and 6.6° latitude respectively.Moreover,northward shift would be more notably in northern China as future temperature increased.     

新疆阿勒泰地区的生态环境问题及解决对策

新疆阿勒泰地区的生态环境从上世纪50年代至今经历了曲折的变化过程,但是总体来说该区生态环境一直在退化,只是在不同时期其退化的速度有所不同。虽然目前阿勒泰地区的生态环境恶化趋势有所减缓,但是曾经导致阿勒泰地区生态环境退化的问题并没有完全得到解决。纵观从1950年代至今的生态环境变化,阿勒泰地区的草场退化、森林资源剧减、耕地次生盐渍化、沼泽化、土地沙漠化、河流水量减少、虫鼠灾害及工矿对环境破坏等生态环境问题及其形成原因在我国的西部具有较强的代表性,因此本文试图通过回顾阿勒泰地区生态环境问题和恶化过程,分析其生态环境恶化的原因,并探寻在科学发展观指导下的可持续发展对策。     

森林择伐研究进展

山地森林采伐应注重经济效益与生态效益的有机结合已成为共识。择伐能充分发挥每棵树木生长潜力,最大限度利用林地生产力,增加林分组成和结构的多样性,提高森林的抗病能力,有利于营养物质的合理循环,减小森林的破碎化程度,提高森林的防护效能,形成和谐的景观。择伐由于符合森林的自然演替规律和自然作业法则,因而越来越受到森林生态学家、生物学家、林学家和森林采伐学家的高度重视。针对国内外森林择伐研究新进展及其存在的问题,进一步探索适合我国森林择伐的理论和作业技术,指出我国今后森林择伐研究的对策及前景。     

建立在Indigo工作站上的航空气象业务系统

航空气象业务系统选用高性能的Ｉｎｄｉｇｏ工作站，收集与处理的资料量大，提供的航线、机场和独特的三维图产品丰富。系统采用开放式模块化结构设计，在网络状态下运行，网上用户可共享其全部的资源和产品。