南海北部沉积物特征及其对珠江演变的响应

采用沉积地球化学、沉积物矿物成分分析等手段研究发现,自渐新世以来,南海北部沉积物成分具有阶段性改变的特征.在早渐新世,沉积物反映出其母岩以花岗岩和区域变质岩为主;到晚渐新世,母岩中区域变质岩类型消失,而以花岗岩、沉积岩和接触变质岩为特征;进入中新世,沉积物主要反映出碳酸盐岩等沉积岩为主的源区特点.这种沉积物成分演变特征与南海北部盆地基底及珠江流域不同区域物质组成特征极为一致,反映出珠江流域演化与南海北部沉积充填之间的对应关系.因此,通过这种研究方法,可以更好地理解32Ma以来南海北部沉积物成分发生改变的原因.同时,可以通过对比南海北部古珠江来源沉积物各时期的成分特点,建立珠江流域的侵蚀-搬运-沉积过程,探讨珠江流域演化历史.     

Spatial response patterns of subtropical forests to a heavy ice storm: a case study in Poyang Lake Basin,southern China

Natural Hazards - In early 2008, an unexpected ice storm hits southern China, severely affected the subtropical forest ecosystems. We used the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer products...     

数字流域与雨量站网论证技术的集成应用研究

针对传统站网论证方法难以与降雨分布的影响因素相关的局限性,将数字流域引入站网论证方法中,阐述了数字流域建设和信息提取的相关技术,并将数字流域与站网密度、相关分析、雨量等值线、历史洪水预报分析4种站网论证技术进行集成和应用研究。研究结果表明,数字流域与雨量站网论证技术的集成考虑了地形等因素影响,论证结果更合理,其基本思想可为类似的站网论证分析提供借鉴。     

天津地磁房改造中的磁性控制

天津市地震局利用天津市地震安全基础工程,对区域地磁台站的地磁观测室进行改造,拆除原有混凝土浇筑的观测墩及墩基,安装无磁大理石观测墩,拆除原屋顶新建木结构屋顶,对室内进行保温处理.在施工过程中,建筑材料及施工环节的磁性控制是磁房改造的关键环节.     

Statistical downscaling of extremes of precipitation and temperature and construction of their future scenarios in an elevated and cold zone

Reliable projections of extremes at finer spatial scales are important in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on societal and natural systems, particularly for elevated and cold regions in the Tibetan Plateau. This paper presents future projections of extremes of daily precipitation and temperature, under different future scenarios in the headwater catchment of Yellow River basin over the 21st century, using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM). The results indicate that: (1) although the mean temperature was simulated perfectly, followed by monthly pan evaporation, the skill scores in simulating extreme indices of precipitation are inadequate; (2) The inter-annual variabilities for most extreme indices were underestimated, although the model could reproduce the extreme temperatures well. In fact, the simulation of extreme indices for precipitation and evaporation were not satisfactory in many cases. (3) In future period from 2011 to 2100, increases in the temperature and evaporation indices are projected under a range of climate scenarios, although decreasing mean and maximum precipitation are found in summer during 2020s. The findings of this work will contribute toward a better understanding of future climate changes for this unique region.     

万全断裂的几何结构和活动特征

本文根据实地调查和探测资料对万全断裂的几何结构和构造活动进行分析与研究,结果表明：该断裂是洋河盆地北缘断裂带的组成断裂之一,由南、北两段斜列组成,呈北东-北北东走向展布,为正断层,长约15km;断裂在第四纪期间持续活动,控制着附近地区的构造演化和地貌发育：西北侧中生代地层抬升,形成低山丘陵;东南侧地块下降,接受第四纪堆积,构成山间盆地;晚更新世以来单条断层的平均垂直活动速率大于0.03—0.3mm/a。     

The Runoff Declining Process and Water Quality in Songhuajiang River Catchment,China under Global Climatic Change

The runoff in Songhuajiang River catchment has experienced a decreasing trend during the second half of the 20th century. Serially complete daily rainfall data of 42 rainfall stations from 1959 to 2002 and daily runoff data of five meteorological stations from 1953 to 2005 were obtained. The Mann–Kendall trend test and the sequential version of Mann–Kendall test were employed in this study to test the monthly and annual trends for both rainfall and runoff, to determine the start point of abrupt runoff declining, and to identify the main driving factors of runoff decline. The results showed an insignificant increasing trend in rainfall but a significant decreasing trend in runoff in the catchment. For the five meteorological stations, abrupt runoff decline occurred during 1957–1963 and the middle 1990s. Through Mann–Kendall comparisons for the area‐rainfall and runoff for the two decreasing periods, human activity, rather than climatic change, is identified as the main driving factor of runoff decline. Analysis of land use/cover shows that farmland is most related with runoff decline among all the land use/cover change in Nenjiang catchment. From 1986 to 1995, the area of farmland increased rapidly from 6.99 to 7.61 million hm². Hydraulic engineering has a significant influence on the runoff decline in the second Songhuajiang catchment. Many large‐scale reservoirs and hydropower stations have been built in the upstream of the Second Songhuajiang and lead to the runoff decline. Nenjiang and the Second Songhuajiang are the two sources of mainstream of Songhuajiang. Decreased runoff in these two sub‐catchments then results in runoff decrease in mainstream of Songhuajiang catchment. It is, therefore, concluded that high percent agricultural land and hydraulic engineering are the most probable driving factors of runoff decline in Songhuajiang River catchment, China.     

A hybrid stochastic-weather-generation method for temporal disaggregation of precipitation with consideration of seasonality and within-month variations

Linking atmospheric and hydrological models is challenging because of a mismatch of spatial and temporal resolutions in which the models operate: dynamic hydrological models need input at relatively fine temporal (daily) scale, but the outputs from general circulation models are usually not realistic at the same scale, even though fine scale outputs are available. Temporal dimension downscaling methods called disaggregation are designed to produce finer temporal-scale data from reliable larger temporal-scale data. Here, we investigate a hybrid stochastic weather-generation method to simulate a high-frequency (daily) precipitation sequence based on lower frequency (monthly) amounts. To deal with many small precipitation amounts and capture large amounts, we divide the precipitation amounts on rainy days (with non-zero precipitation amounts) into two states (named moist and wet states, respectively) by a pre-defined threshold and propose a multi-state Markov chain model for the occurrences of different states (also including non-rain days called dry state). The truncated Gamma and censored extended Burr XII distributions are then employed to model the precipitation amounts in the moist and wet states, respectively. This approach avoids the need to deal with discontinuity in the distribution, and ensures that the states (dry, moist and wet) and corresponding amounts in rainy days are well matched. The method also considers seasonality by constructing individual models for different months, and monthly variation by incorporating the low-frequency amounts as a model predictor. The proposed method is compared with existing models using typical catchment data in Australia with different climate conditions (non-seasonal rainfall, summer rainfall and winter rainfall patterns) and demonstrates better performances under several evaluation criteria which are important in hydrological studies.     

阿尔金南缘断裂东段晚第四纪活动特征

阿尔金断裂的几何学和运动学特征对研究青藏高原构造演化和陆内地震机理非常重要。为定量科学研究较为薄弱的阿尔金南缘断裂东段的运动学参数,我们采用航卫片的解译、野外调查、地形测绘和年代学样品测试等多种方法对该段进行了初步研究。结果显示该段断裂主要以左旋走滑运动为主,且沿线存在较多的小位移,其位移空间分布的3个明显峰值分别为4.5m、8m和13m。根据河流阶地的左旋位移和相应的地貌面沉积年龄,得到晚第四纪以来阿尔金断裂东段的走滑速率约为2.7±0.9mm/a。基于所获得的定量参数,认为该段断裂向东以应变分解的形式将其应变量传递到相邻的逆冲断裂上。