A bootstrap based space–time surveillance model with an application to crime occurrences

This study proposes a bootstrap-based space–time surveillance model. Designed to find emerging hotspots in near-real time, the bootstrap based model is characterized by its use of past occurrence information and bootstrap permutations. Many existing space–time surveillance methods, using population at risk data to generate expected values, have resulting hotspots bounded by administrative area units and are of limited use for near-real time applications because of the population data needed. However, this study generates expected values for local hotspots from past occurrences rather than population at risk. Also, bootstrap permutations of previous occurrences are used for significant tests. Consequently, the bootstrap-based model, without the requirement of population at risk data, (1) is free from administrative area restriction, (2) enables more frequent surveillance for continuously updated registry database, and (3) is readily applicable to criminology and epidemiology surveillance. The bootstrap-based model performs better for space–time surveillance than the space–time scan statistic. This is shown by means of simulations and an application to residential crime occurrences in Columbus, OH, year 2000.     

地壳的拆离作用与华北克拉通破坏:晚中生代伸展构造约束

伸展条件下的地壳拆离作用是岩石圈减薄的重要浅部构造响应。晚中生代时期的伸展构造(包括拆离断层、变质核杂岩构造和断陷盆地)在华北、华南、东北和东蒙古及贝加尔地区普遍发育,它们切过上部地壳(断陷盆地)、中、上地壳(拆离断层)或中部地壳(变质核杂岩)。地壳拆离作用具有运动学极性(NWW或SEE)、几何学宏观(区域)对称与微观(局部)不对称性、遍布全区但不均匀性,以及形成时间的跨越性(140~60Ma)等特点,并使得地壳和岩石圈发生显著的减薄。本文研究揭示出现今岩石圈厚度变化与晚中生代伸展构造的发育程度和分布之间并没有必然的联系。其变化的基本规律是,除新生代裂陷发育区岩石圈厚度明显较小且厚度有迅速变化外,从华北向贝加尔地区总体的变化趋势是逐渐加厚,也即东亚地区岩石圈具有楔形形态。晚中生代时期的地壳(或地幔)拆离作用伴随着广泛的岩石圈减薄作用,区域岩石圈同时遭受到一定程度的减薄和破坏,华北克拉通在这一时期的破坏仅仅是区域岩石圈减薄在华北的具体体现。     

四川南充嘉陵江曲流的形成及曲流地质公园建立的意义

嘉陵江曲流地貌景观在世界曲流地貌中具有典型性和代表性。系统的阐述了嘉陵江曲流的演化、形成,并进行了与国际河谷曲流的对比研究,提出建立国家级曲流地质公园的意见和保护建议。