条件区域云概率分布模型

本文在引入区域相关场和正态化转换技术的基础之上,通过MonteCarlo模拟建立了条件区域概率分布模型,较好地解决了单点概率和区域分布概率之间的关系,并通过大量计算,得到了条件区域概率分布模型的拟合函数,从而使区域范围内的概率天气预报成为可能。特别是为战时气象信息封锁条件下,进行区域范围内的概率天气预报提供了新的思路。     

电磁排列剖面法（EMAP）原理及应用

电磁排列剖面法是在MT法基础上发展起来的一种新方法,其工作效率高,横向分辨率强,可减少“静态效应”对测深曲线的畸变。在近几年油气勘探中取得比较好的地质效果并深受重视。作为一种新方法有很多问题需要研究,就方法的原理、仪器、野外采样及推断解释做了初步总结     

New interpretation on the provenance changes of the upper Pinghu–lower Huagang Formation within Xihu Depression,East China Sea Shelf Basin

Both Pinghu and Huagang formations are important hydrocarbon reservoirs of the Xihu Depression in the East China Sea Shelf Basin. Clarifying the source suppliers and restoring source-to-sink transport routes are of great significance to the future petroleum and gas undertakings. Previous researchers were largely confined by either limitation of geological records, highly dependence on a singular method or low-precision dating techniques. Our study integrated heavy mineral assemblages, geochemica...     

Late Eocene–early Miocene provenance evolution of the Crocker Fan in the southern South China Sea

There are many large-scale Cenozoic sedimentary basins with plentiful river deltas, deep-water fans and carbonate platforms in the southern South China Sea. The Crocker Fan was deposited as a typical submarine fan during the late Eocene–early Miocene, and stretches extensively across the entire Sarawak–Sabah of the northern Borneo area. However, systematic analyses are still lacking regarding its sediment composition and potential source suppliers. No consensus has been reached yet on the provenance evolution and sedimentary infilling processes, which seriously impeded the oil-and-gas exploration undertakings. By combining with sedimentary-facies identification, heavy mineral assemblages, elemental geochemistry and detrital zircon U-Pb dating, this paper aims to generalize an integrated analysis on the potential provenance terranes and restore source-to-sink pathways of the Crocker Fan. In general, the Crocker Fan was initially formed over the Cretaceous–lower/middle Eocene Rajang Group by an angular Rajang unconformity. The continual southward subduction of the proto-South China Sea resulted in magmatic activities and subsequent regional deformation and thrusting along the Lupar Line in the northern Borneo. The lowermost Crocker sequence is featured by a thick conglomerate layer sourced from in-situ or adjacent paleo-uplifts. From the late Eocene to the early Miocene, the Crocker Fan was constantly delivered with voluminous detritus from the Malay Peninsula of the western Sundaland. The Zengmu Basin was widely deposited with delta plain and neritic facies sediments, while the Brunei-Sabah Basin, to the farther east, was ubiquitously characterized by turbiditic sequences. The Crocker Fan successions are overall thick layers of modest-grained sandstones, which formed high-quality reservoirs in the southern South China Sea region.     

Implementation of DSC model and application for analysis of field pile tests under cyclic loading

The disturbed state concept (DSC) model, and a new and simplified procedure for unloading and reloading behavior are implemented in a nonlinear finite element procedure for dynamic analysis for coupled response of saturated porous materials. The DSC model is used to characterize the cyclic behavior of saturated clays and clay–steel interfaces. In the DSC, the relative intact (RI) behavior is characterized by using the hierarchical single surface (HISS) plasticity model; and the fully adjusted (FA) behavior is modeled by using the critical state concept. The DSC model is validated with respect to laboratory triaxial tests for clay and shear tests for clay‐steel interfaces. The computer procedure is used to predict field behavior of an instrumented pile subjected to cyclic loading. The predictions provide very good correlation with the field data. They also yield improved results compared to those from a HISS model with anisotropic hardening, partly because the DSC model allows for degradation or softening and interface response. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

联合钻孔资料及地形数据估算宝鸡地区vS30

将地形数据经过坡度计算,利用坡度与v_S30相关关系,计算宝鸡地区场地近似v_S30。为了得到接近实际的波速分布,借助宝鸡地区钻孔资料,研究选定区域内v_S30近似值与实测结果的差异,并对差异的空间变化趋势进行分析,在此基础上,对模型估算的v_S30进行修正,进而得到接近实际的v_S30分布,并给出基于NEHRP的宝鸡地区场地分类。     

Paleogene marine deposition records of rifting and breakup of the South China Sea: An overview

A compilation of available marine deposition data from offshore S-SE China reveals evidence of rifting and breakup of the South China Sea (SCS) during the Paleogene. Marine deposition started earlier in the Paleocene in the East China Sea (ECS)-Taiwan region before expanding southwestward into the SCS region in the middle Eocene. Our data indicate the existence of an elongated Paleogene China Sea in these areas stretching along the northeasterly structural belts, probably as part of the marginal western paleo-Pacific. The southwestward shift of marine influence in the middle Eocene was responding to a period of intensive rifting and subsidence in the SCS region, while the sea in the ECS-Taiwan region started to shrink and shoal after the late Eocene, likely associated with local breakup and initial spreading in the Taiwan-Taixinan Basin area. The accumulation of hemipelagic sediments at ODP 1148 and IODP U1435 from near the continent-ocean boundary and at many other shelf-slope sites was in response to a large-scale breakup 34 to 33 Ma ago, subsequently leading to the birth of the SCS in the Oligocene.     

Statistical downscaling of reference evapotranspiration in Haihe River Basin: applicability assessment and application to future projection

Future changes in reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) are of increasing importance in assessing the potential impacts on hydrology and water resources systems of more pronounced climate change. This study assesses the applicability of the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in projecting ET₀, and investigates the seasonal and spatial patterns of future ET₀ based on general circulation models (GCMs) across the Haihe River Basin. The results indicate that SDSM can downscale ET₀ well in term of different basin-averaged measures for the HadCM3 and CGCM3 GCMs. HadCM3 has a much superior capability in capturing inter-annual variability compared to CGCM3 and thus is chosen as the sole model to assess the changes in future ET₀. There are three homogeneous sub-regions of the Haihe River Basin: Northwest, Northeast and Southeast. Change points are detected at around 2050 and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. The Northwest is revealed to have a slight to strong increase in ET₀, while the Northeast and the Southeast tend to experience a pattern change from decrease to increase in ET₀.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR J. Thompson     

加勒比板块多学科研究综述及其对地震预测的启示

2010年1月12日海地M_W7.0地震打破了Enriquillo断层近240余年的地震平静期, 可能意味着加勒比地区新的活跃周期的到来。 本文通过收集该地区地质构造演化、 地球物理场、 发震构造、 震源物理、 运动学特征及应力场演化等方面的研究成果, 分析由于海地地震的发生所带来的区域地震危险性等相关认识的改变。 通过对多学科资料的梳理, 分析利用多学科研究成果开展加勒比地区地震危险性分析的基本思路, 以期为未来的中国大陆区域动力学模型构建、 地震预测预报研究提供基础参考。     

滇西南普洱强震群地区地壳形变的数值模拟

滇西南普洱一带地质构造复杂,中-强地震成群活动特征明显,地壳的形变特征与形变机制引起了地学界的广泛关注和深入研究。在参考、借鉴以往研究成果的基础上,本文构建了普洱一带包含活动断裂的二维板有限元模型,以GPS测量得到的块体年运动量作为模型区域的边界约束,模拟计算获得了普洱地区的构造形变空间分布,以NEE、NNW 2个方向、从数值模拟角度对普洱地区的水平形变特征和区域地壳垂直形变场进行了分析和探讨。结果表明:在青藏高原东南缘扩展、高原物质重力滑塌型南东向移动的动力学背景下,研究区内NEE向断裂的活动带动牵引NNW向断裂共轭运动,隆升性质的垂直形变场与60年的大区域水准测量结果相吻合,沿NNW向形变场的分布无规律,应是区域应力累积和震后调整双重作用的结果。沿NEE向形变场呈现了较明显的西部大于东部的分布图像,特别是西北部高值区对应了2014年景谷6.6级强震,最后对研究区的区域动力学问题进行了初步探讨。