环渤海地区4～10天风速预报中相似预报法的应用

依据逐步相似过滤法和最小相似离度原理,利用NCEP逐日再分析资料、T213数值预报产品和环渤海72站1958—2008年地面观测站风速资料,建立不同因子组合的相似过滤方案,制作环渤海72站4～10天每日4次、日最大风速预报。通过多个相似过滤方案预报准确率检验,确定“最佳”逐步相似过滤方案。经过2007—2008年预报检验表明：每日4次风速预报中,0~2级风速的预报效果最好,4～10天平均TS评分达到67%;日最大风速预报中,3~4级4～10天平均TS评分为54.1%,5级及以上的TS评分为17.1%。在风力不太强的情况下,该方法对于中期风速预报有一定的参考价值。     

信阳市渔业气象服务效益分析

对信阳市南湾水库渔业气象服务效益调查分析结果表明:在亲鱼培育、种苗繁殖、苗种培育、成鱼养殖、捕捞等主要生产阶段,成鱼养殖阶段服务效益最大,为21.98万元;繁殖、亲鱼培育阶段服务效益占该阶段渔业总产值的比例分别列第一和第二,说明这两个生产阶段气象服务尤为重要.由于对渔业气象服务还不够重视,加之还缺乏渔业与气象条件关系的研究,目前渔业气象服务层次较低,渔业气象服务效益贡献率也较低.     

Experimental evidence for eukaryotic fossil preservation: Onion skin cells in silica solution

Research on the origin of eukaryotes often focuses on the exceptional preservation found in silicified Precambrian fossils. Nuclei like subcellular structures in well-preserved fossil becomes confusion and arguments, which focus on whether the partial degradation of prokaryotes produces artifacts that resemble a ‘nucleus’, or fossilized nuclei of eukaryotes. In order to understand the mechanisms of silicification and identify the fossilized subcellular and microstructures in rocks, a series of laboratory controlled experiments were performed for simulating the silicification process. The effects of different silica solutions in eukaryote fossilization were studied in our experiments by exposing onion skin cells (epidermis) to silica solutions. Onion skin provides a good experimental model because of its well characterized cellular structures which are easily observed. The designed experiments revealed that the possibility of onion cell preserved as a “fossil” with nuclear structures, the first week fossilization, or mineralization as rapid as 1 week is important. And the experiment also revealed interactions between silica and the onion skin cell wall surface functional groups were weak. The preservation of nuclei in the onion skin model was due to precipitation in highly supersaturated silica solutions rather than simply the high silica concentration. When the silica gel precipitates slowly at low supersaturation states, the nuclei were not well preserved, but the rapid precipitation at high supersaturated silica conditions preserved nuclear structures. A better understanding of the processes involved in onion skin fossilization will further contribute to issues concerning the silicification of other eukaryotic materials.     

Dynamic Regulation of Reservoir Drought Limit Water Level

Water Resources - Drought limit water level has been presented to guide reservoir drought resistance for years. However, current static drought limit water levels neglected the water transfer...     

Role of reservoir regulation and groundwater feedback in a simulated ground-soil-vegetation continuum: A long-term regional scale analysis

The regional terrestrial water cycle is strongly altered by human activities. Among them, reservoir regulation is a way to spatially and temporally allocate water resources in a basin for multi-purposes. However, it is still not sufficiently understood how reservoir regulation modifies the regional terrestrial- and subsequently, the atmospheric water cycle. To address this question, the representation of reservoir regulation into the terrestrial component of fully coupled regional Earth system models is required. In this study, an existing process-based reservoir network module is implemented into NOAH-HMS, that is, the terrestrial component of an atmospheric–hydrologic modelling system, namely, the WRF-HMS. It allows to quantitatively differentiate role of reservoir regulation and of groundwater feedback in a simulated ground-soil-vegetation continuum. Our study focuses on the Poyang Lake basin, where the largest freshwater lake of China and reservoirs of different sizes are located. As compared to streamflow observations, the newly extended NOAH-HMS slightly improves the streamflow and streamflow duration curves simulation for the Poyang Lake basin for the period 1979–1986. The inclusion of reservoir regulation leads to major changes in the simulated groundwater recharges and evaporation from reservoirs at local scale, but has minor effects on the simulated soil moisture and surface runoff at basin scale. The performed groundwater feedback sensitivity analysis shows that the strength of the groundwater feedback is not altered by the consideration of reservoir regulation. Furthermore, both reservoir regulation and groundwater feedback modify the partitioning of the simulated evapotranspiration, thus affecting the atmospheric water cycle in the Poyang Lake region. This finding motivates future research with our extended fully coupled atmospheric–hydrologic modelling system by the community.     

冀北赤城二堡子片麻状角闪二长岩的锆石SIMS U-Pb年龄及其地质意义

运用岩相学研究理论和元素地球化学研究理论,针对冀北赤城二堡子片麻状角闪二长岩,进行岩相学(4件样品)和地球化学分析(4件样品),结果表明:角闪二长岩的矿物成分为斜长石(30%~35%)、碱性长石(25%~30%)、角闪石(15%~20%)、石英(10%~15%)和黑云母(5%~10%)等。岩石中w(SiO2)介于60.16%~62.16%之间,w(K2O+Na2O)为8.56%~8.82%,稀土总量较高(ΣREE为246.30×10-6~317.76×10-6),(La/Yb)N值为28.18~42.79,具有轻稀土富集、重稀土亏损的分配模式,Eu异常(Eu/Eu*值为0.90~1.03)及Ce异常(Ce/Ce*值为0.91~0.98)均不明显,富集大离子亲石元素(如Ba,Rb,Sr和Th等)及轻稀土元素(如La,Ce和Nd等),亏损高场强元素(如Nb,Ta,Zr和Hf等)。角闪二长岩的锆石SIMS U-Pb年龄为243.1Ma±1.8 Ma,锆石的Th/U比值为0.709~1.258,表明其形成于三叠纪,应该是中生代印支期岩浆作用的产物,这是赤城地区确定的第二个印支期中酸性侵入岩体,其形成可能与赤城-崇礼断裂带在印支期重新活动有关。赤城印支期角闪二长岩体的确定表明赤城、崇礼地区存在印支期(~239Ma^243Ma)岩浆-变质-构造热事件,这对于冀北大地构造演化特征的确定具有重要的指示意义。     

Multivariate adaptive regression splines for estimating riverine constituent concentrations

Regression-based methods are commonly used for riverine constituent concentration/flux estimation, which is essential for guiding water quality protection practices and environmental decision making. This paper developed a multivariate adaptive regression splines model for estimating riverine constituent concentrations (MARS-EC). The process, interpretability and flexibility of the MARS-EC modelling approach, was demonstrated for total nitrogen in the Patuxent River, a major river input to Chesapeake Bay. Model accuracy and uncertainty of the MARS-EC approach was further analysed using nitrate plus nitrite datasets from eight tributary rivers to Chesapeake Bay. Results showed that the MARS-EC approach integrated the advantages of both parametric and nonparametric regression methods, and model accuracy was demonstrated to be superior to the traditionally used ESTIMATOR model. MARS-EC is flexible and allows consideration of auxiliary variables; the variables and interactions can be selected automatically. MARS-EC does not constrain concentration-predictor curves to be constant but rather is able to identify shifts in these curves from mathematical expressions and visual graphics. The MARS-EC approach provides an effective and complementary tool along with existing approaches for estimating riverine constituent concentrations.     

Land surface temperature and its impact factors in Western Sichuan Plateau,China

The understanding influence of multiple factors variations on land surface temperature (LST) remains elusive. LST was retrieved by the atmospheric correction algorithms. Based on the correlation coefficients, stepwise regression analysis was developed to examine how multiple factors variability led to LST variations. The differences in LST between impact factors vary depending on time in a day. The elevation and land use types significantly affect the LST in sunny slope or shadow areas has a significantly quadratic curve correlation or a negative linear correlation with it, the influence of slope and aspect is not very significant. LST for forestland, grassland and bare land in the sunny slope and shadow area was the cubic polynomial related to its elevation. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference moisture index (NDMI) effectively express LST in mountainous. LST and NDMI or NDVI have a significantly negative correlation, NDMI is more effective and more applicable for the expression of LST.     

湖南省油菜春季涝渍过程灾变判别指标

以湖南省油菜为研究对象,综合洪涝与连阴雨的致灾因子,利用历史灾情数据反演涝渍过程样本,构建临灾、受灾状态样本,采用均值t检验方法,定量分析不同降水累积衰减系数w情况下,降水因子差异的显著性,构建有效累积降水量P_E。基于Fisher判别准则,计算涝渍灾害临灾与受灾的临界线,构建逐日动态的油菜春季涝渍过程灾变判别指标y,并进行涝渍过程样本反演及独立样本验证。分析春季涝渍受灾频率与相对气象产量的关系,构建灾害影响评价模型。结果表明:当w=0.899时,受灾与临灾样本P_E的差异最显著。灾变判别指标y可逐日动态监测涝渍灾变过程及灾害后续影响,为动态监测区域油菜涝渍过程提供了数据支撑;指标指示的灾变范围与实际受灾情况基本一致,为区域防灾减灾提供了科学参考。开花期及结荚期湖南油菜涝渍受灾频率较高,成熟期较低。湖南省油菜春季涝渍灾害影响指数呈东南高西北低,长沙东部、株洲中部及北部、湘潭、永州及郴州中部油菜产量受涝渍灾害影响最重。     

辽东复州湾中石炭世地层兼论华北地台中石炭统的划分

华北地台中石炭统本溪组一般仅代表中石炭世晚期沉积。从已知的几十个海陆交互相本溪组剖面来看,其中（虫筳）类生物群为Fusulina-Fusulinella带;牙形石生物群为Idtognathodus magnificus-Ⅰ.claviformis-Neognathodus ruondyi带,在整个华北地台均可依此进行对比。但在辽东半岛南缘的复州湾一带,中石炭世沉积特征却恰好与本溪剖面相反,下部层段以灰岩为主,上部层段以碎屑岩为主。下部含6层灰岩,（虫筳）类以Profusulinella的丰富种群为特征,可建立Profusulinella带,并可进而划分为3个亚带。牙形石则为Idiognathoides sinuatus-Ⅰ.corrugatus-Declinognathodus lateralis带。复州湾含灰岩为主的下部层段和本溪含碎屑岩为主的下部层段对比,依前者之生物组合建立本溪组下部复州湾段（c21）,代表华北地台中石炭世早期沉积;复州湾以碎屑岩为主的上部层段和本溪含5层灰岩的上部层段对比,依后者之生物组合限定为本溪组上部牛毛岭段（c22）,代表华北地台中石炭世晚期沉积。