The complex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics of annual runoff processes in the three headwaters of the Tarim River

This paper attempted to identify fractal and chaotic characteristics of the annual runoff processes in headwaters of the Tarim River. Methods of fractal analyses were used to explore several aspects of the temporal changes from 1957 to 2002. The main findings are as follows: (1) The annual runoff processes of the three headwaters of the Tarim River are complex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics. (2) The correlation dimensions of attractor derived from the time series of the annual runoff for the Hotan, Yarkand and Aksu rivers are all greater than 3.0 and non-integral, implying that all three rivers are chaotic dynamical systems that are sensitive to initial conditions, and the dynamic modeling of their annual runoff process requires at least four independent variables. (3) The time series of annual runoff in each river presents a long-term correlation characteristic. The Hurst exponent for the period of 1989 to 2002 suggests that we may expect to see an increasing trend in the annual runoff of the Aksu and Yarkand rivers in the years after 2002, but a decreasing tendency for the Hotan River in the same period.     

大型直流电压发生器塔架结构地震响应分析

本文以某一大型直流电压发生器塔架结构为例,建立有限元计算模型,采用调幅正弦五波、Taft地震波、El-Centro地震波、云南澜沧地震波和正弦三波5种地震动输入,通过数值计算,讨论了不同输入地震波对于结构抗震设计的影响。结果表明,地震作用效应在这类特种结构的组合响应中起重要影响,采用调幅正弦五波、正弦三波作为地震输入,过分夸大了实际的地震作用效应。最后,对这类特种结构的输入地震动提出了相应建议。     

Age and nature of eclogites in the Huwan shear zone,and the multi-stage evolution of the Qinling-Dabie-Sulu orogen,central China

In situ LA-ICPMS U-Pb, trace element, and Hf isotope data in zircon demonstrate a Carboniferous age for eclogite-facies metamorphism in Siluro-Devonian protoliths in the Huwan shear zone, Dabie Mountains, Central China. This age contrasts with the more prevailing Triassic age for high- to ultrahigh pressure (HP to UHP) metamorphism in the Qinling-Dabie-Sulu orogen. Metamorphic zircon in two eclogite samples from Sujiahe is characterized by low Th/U ratios, small negative Eu anomalies, flat HREE patterns, and low ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf ratios. These geochemical signatures suggest that the zircon crystallized in the presence of garnet and in the absence of plagioclase feldspar. Furthermore, temperatures of ~ 655 and ~ 638 °C, calculated using the Ti content of zircon, are consistent with their formation during eclogite-facies metamorphism. The weighted mean ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age of 309 ± 4 Ma (2δ) for this zircon improves previous age estimates for eclogite-facies metamorphism in the Huwan shear zone, ranging from 420 to 220 Ma. Metamorphic zircon from one eclogite sample from Hujiawan, most likely formed during prograde metamorphism, yields an equivalent age estimate of 312 ± 11 Ma. Magmatic zircon cores in the three samples yield ages for the magmatic protoliths of the eclogites ranging from 420 ± 7 to 406 ± 5 Ma, and post-dating the middle Paleozoic collision of the North China and the Qinling terrain. The zircon crystals in the three eclogite samples display a large variation of ε_Hf (t) values of ? 4.9 to 21.3. The metamorphic zircon overgrowths show the same range of ε_Hf (t) values as those of the inherited magmatic crystal interiors. This suggests that the metamorphic zircon overgrowths may have formed by dissolution-reprecipitation of pre-existing magmatic zircon thereby preserving their original Hf isotopic composition. The high ε_Hf (t) values suggest that the protoliths were derived from depleted mantle sources, most likely Paleotethyan oceanic crust; while the low ε_Hf (t) values are attributed to crustal contamination. Some eclogites in the Huwan shear zone have a distinctive signature of continental crust most probably derived from the Yangtze Craton. The coexistence of Paleozoic oceanic crust and Neoproterozoic continental crust with similar metamorphic ages in the Huwan shear zone implies that Paleozoic Paleotethyan oceanic crust was produced within a marginal basin of the northern Yangtze Craton. The opening of the Paleo-Tethyan ocean was slightly younger than the collision of the North China Craton and the Qinling terrain during the Late Paleozoic in the Qinling-Dabie-Sulu orogen. Subduction of the Paleo-Tethyan oceanic crust and associated continental basement resulted in the 309 ± 2 Ma (2σ) eclogite-facies metamorphism in the Huwan shear zone. The subsequent Triassic continent-continent collision led to the final coalescence of the Yangtze and Sino-Korean cratons. Amalgamation of the Yangtze and North China cratons was, therefore, a multistage process extending over at least 200 Ma.     

华北地下水位强震短期异常演化及前兆判别标志研究

对地下水位地震前兆异常开展了参数提取方法的研究, 并以其提取的结果为输入, 对1984～2002年华北地区地下水位异常参数分布做了全时空扫描, 继而将全部图像与华北地区构造活动性量化评估的数字化图像进行了叠加, 实现了地下水位异常动态扫描与区域构造活动性背景的结合。 在此基础上, 对1985年以来华北地区5级以上地震前的地下水位短期图像演化情况做了全面分析, 提取出了判别异常区的指标以及地震短期异常区的演化特征, 并最终建立了华北地区强震前地下水位短期前兆的判别标志。     

ZD8仪地电阻率整点值短临异常研究

高精度的地电阻率测量其观测资料中有否短临地震前兆信息, 为此分析处理了宝坻台ZD8地电仪自1987年5月至2001年3月的地电阻率整点值观测资料, 分别对发生在宝坻台附近的中等地震和华北北部5级以上地震前该项资料的短临前兆变化的对应情况和异常形态特征进行了全面的分析研究, 结果表明该项资料的短临异常指标分别为0. 5%和1. 0%, 其预报效能的R值分别为0. 4和0. 373。     

江苏省专业气象服务终端及其产品的设计

本文介绍了江苏省气象台专业气象服务终端及其产品的设计,用较 为直观、丰富的气象图文信息产品取代以往公众服务中以口传服务为主的落后形 式,为各行各业提供更具针对性的专业气象服务。     

四川汶川,都江堰,崇州,大邑等毗邻地区的旅游资源与开发前景

汶川县、都江堰市、崇州市、大邑县等毗邻地区,分布着诸多的旅游景点,根据景点的开发情况和地质地貌 景象特征,可以划分为已开发旅游景区和特开发旅游景区两大类,分别阐述了各景点、景区的特征及其形成的地质背景,并对旅游片区的旅游资源的开发与保护提出了建议。     

摩擦桩沉降变形规律及承载力确定的探讨

在现场的桩基垂直静载荷试验基础上 ,进行荷载传递机理分析和沉降变形的阶段性划分 ,探讨了确定单桩竖向承载力的新方法 ,为工程合理、充分地利用承载力提供参考。     

渤海"9216"特大风暴潮过程的数值模拟

本文论述了我国渤海地区风暴潮的特点,指出渤海地区一年四季均有风暴潮发生,而且发生在这里的温带风暴潮较台风风暴潮既频繁又严重。建立了一个球坐标系下的温带风暴潮数值模式,并利用该模式对发生在渤海地区的9216号特大风暴潮进行了数值模拟,成功地再现了这次过程,这表明：只要计算的风场准确,温带风暴潮的数值预报是可行的．     

林业科技推广工作的实践与思考

<正> 林业的发展和现代化建设要依靠科学技术,科技推广应用是促进科技转化为现实生产力的关键环节,是科技兴林的中心任务。北京市狠抓林业科技推广工作,取得明显的经济、生态和社会效益,为我市林业生产发展起到了重要的支撑作用。据统计,每年科技成果应用面积均在13.3万公顷以上,科技进步贡献率达到28.3％。由于多种因素的制约,林业科技推广工作距经济发展的要求还有较大的差距,本文将就影响我市林业科技推广的