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91.
Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasting Based on Ensemble Output Using Generalized Additive Models and Bayesian Model Averaging 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2 下载免费PDF全文
A probabilistic precipitation forecasting model using generalized additive models (GAMs) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) was proposed in this paper.GAMs were used to fit the spatial-temporal precipi... 相似文献
92.
气候波动和人类活动对南水北调中线工程典型流域径流影响的定量评估 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
以南水北调中线工程典型流域汉江上游流域和滦河流域为研究对象,采用敏感性分析法、降水?径流双累积曲线法、累积量斜率变化率比较法定量评估了气候波动和人类活动对流域径流变化的影响。结果表明:汉江上游流域和滦河流域变异Ⅰ/Ⅱ期年均径流深相对于基准期分别减少了29.5% / 19.1%和49.8% / 70.0%;对于汉江上游流域,1991-1999年(变异Ⅰ期)气候波动是径流减少的主要影响因素,2000-2008年(变异Ⅱ期)人类活动则是径流减少的主要影响因素,且人类活动对汉江上游流域径流减少的影响逐步增加;对于滦河流域,1980-2010年(变异Ⅰ/Ⅱ期)人类活动一直是径流减少的主要影响因素,且气候波动和人类活动对径流减少的影响贡献率基本保持不变。 相似文献
93.
Remote estimation of surficial seafloor properties through the application Angular Range Analysis to multibeam sonar data 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:2
The variation of the backscatter strength with the angle of incidence is an intrinsic property of the seafloor, which can
be used in methods for acoustic seafloor characterization. Although multibeam sonars acquire backscatter over a wide range
of incidence angles, the angular information is normally neglected during standard backscatter processing and mosaicking.
An approach called Angular Range Analysis has been developed to preserve the backscatter angular information, and use it for
remote estimation of seafloor properties. Angular Range Analysis starts with the beam-by-beam time-series of acoustic backscatter
provided by the multibeam sonar and then corrects the backscatter for seafloor slope, beam pattern, time varying and angle
varying gains, and area of insonification. Subsequently a series of parameters are calculated from the stacking of consecutive
time series over a spatial scale that approximates half of the swath width. Based on these calculated parameters and the inversion
of an acoustic backscatter model, we estimate the acoustic impedance and the roughness of the insonified area on the seafloor.
In the process of this inversion, the behavior of the model parameters is constrained by established inter-property relationships.
The approach has been tested using a 300 kHz Simrad EM3000 multibeam sonar in Little Bay, NH. Impedance estimates are compared
to in situ measurements of sound speed. The comparison shows a very good correlation, indicating the potential of this approach for
robust seafloor characterization. 相似文献
94.
T. Ibungochouba Singh I. Ablu Meitei K. Yugindro Singh 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2013,345(1):177-181
Hawking radiation of Kerr-de Sitter black hole is investigated using Hamilton-Jacobi method. When the well-behaved Painleve coordinate system and Eddington coordinate are used, we get the correct result of Bekenstein-Hawking entropy before and after radiation but a direct computation will lead to a wrong result via Hamilton-Jacobi method. Our results show that the tunneling probability is related to the change of Bekenstein-Hawking entropy and the derived emission spectrum deviates from the pure thermal but it is consistent with underlying unitary theory. 相似文献
95.
一种基于对象和多种特征整合的分类识别方法研究 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
遥感图像空间分辨率的提高,为目标物的纹理特征和形状特征的提取提供了客观基础,同时也使得传统的基于像元的分类识别方法受到了严重的挑战。因此,需要对传统的方法进行改进或发展新的方法。本文采用面向对象的分析思想,通过图像分割和分割对象的矢量化等一系列的预处理,并在此基础上实现了目标形状信息的提取,最后综合利用光谱特征和形状特征应用模糊分类器实现两种典型的人造目标的分类提取实验。识别的精度评价主要通过目视解译完成。分析表明,形状信息的提取大大丰富了目标识别的特征库,尤其在感兴趣目标与背景物具有相近的光谱反应而形状特征有明显差异的条件下,这种利用光谱与形状特征整合的提取方法能够大大提高目标的识别精度。 相似文献
96.
The 03 February 2002 Çay Earthquake (Mw ~6.7) occurred on the fault segment between Eber and Ak?ehir Lakes followed by a large aftershock (Mw ~5.6) near the western end of the fault and two sequential aftershocks. We computed the coseismic surface displacements from static GPS measurements to determine the fault geometry parameters and uniform slip components. The coseismic displacements were obtained through combining the regional pre-earthquake and post-earthquake GPS data. Fault geometry and slips were acquired through the inversion of GPS data modeling the events as elastic dislocations in a half-space and assuming all four events took place on the same fault plane. Results suggest that one-segment fault of ~33 km length and dipping ~43° northward suffices to model the dislocation, assuming uniform slip distribution with 0.51 m dip slip, 0.26 m left-lateral slip extending to a depth down to ~11.5 km which is consistent with seismological evidence. The results also verify the normal faulting in the eastern flank of Isparta Angle which has long been assumed as a thrusting structure. While the available data cannot identify the four individual events on the same day, an attempted distributed slip model differentiates dip slip and left-lateral slips near the hypocenter with maximum values of ~1 and 0.6 m, respectively. 相似文献
97.
Shift-share Analysis on International Tourism Competitiveness - A Case of Jiangsu Province 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
SHI Chunyun ZHANG Jie YANG Yang ZHOU Zhang 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2007,17(2):173-178
Shift-share analysis has been confirmed a useful approach in the study of regional economics and many kinds of extended shift-share models have been advanced and put into practice in economic studies, but few have hitherto been introduced and applied to the tourism research in China. Moreover understanding the spatially competitive relationship is of paramount importance for marketers, developers, and planners involved in tourism strategy development. Based on international tourism receipts from 1995 to 2004, this study aims at probing into the spatial competitiveness of interna- tional tourism in Jiangsu Province in comparison with its neighbors by applying a spatially extended shift-share model and a modified dynamic shift-share model. The empirical results illustrate that exceptional years may exist in the ap- plication of dynamic shift-share models. To solve this issue, modifications to dynamic shift-share model are put forward. The analytical results are not only presented but also explained by the comparison of background conditions of tourism development between Jiangsu and its key competitors. The conclusions can be drawn that the growth of international tourism receipts in Jiangsu mainly attributes to the national component and the competitive component and Zhejiang is the most important rival to Jiangsu during the period of 1995-2004. In order to upgrade the tourism competitiveness, it is indispensable for Jiangsu to take proper positioning, promoting and marketing strategies and to cooperate and integrate with its main rivals. 相似文献
98.
Tom Beer 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(3):469-480
The United Nations has declared 2008 to be the International Year of Planet Earth. It is being organised under the auspices of the International Union of Geological Sciences and UNESCO. Planning for the International Year of Planet Earth has consisted of establishing 10 major science themes including Hazards. The Hazards Theme is centred around the following key questions: (1) How have humans altered the geosphere, the biosphere and the landscape, thereby creating long-term changes detrimental to life and the environment and triggering certain hazards, while increasing societal vulnerability to geophysical (geological and hydrometeorological) hazards? (2) What technologies and methodologies are required to assess the vulnerability of people and places to hazards and how might these be used at a variety of spatial scales? (3) How do geophysical hazards compare relative to each other regarding current capabilities for monitoring, prediction and mitigation and what can be done in the short-term to improve these capabilities (4) What barriers exist to the utilisation of risk and vulnerability information by governments (and other entities) for risk and vulnerability reduction policies and planning (including mitigation) from each of the geophysical hazards? Following the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami and the UN World Conference on Disaster Reduction held in Kobe, Japan in January 2005, the International Council for Science (ICSU) decided to establish a major research programme and initiative on Natural and Human Induced Environmental Hazards and Disasters that will co-operate with the Hazards theme of the International Year and continue through to 2011. 相似文献
99.
煤岩复合承载结构所处的应力边界条件不同,冲击地压在巷道中的显现特征和前兆规律亦不相同。采用高频振动采集及孔内成像三轴动静载试验系统,开展了高静载和动静载耦合作用下煤岩组合体真三轴单面临空试验,分析了煤岩组合体界面处力学特征和强度条件,探究了不同应力边界下煤岩组合体的破坏形态、动力显现特征和声发射信号的演变规律。研究结果表明:(1)受煤岩变形相互制约的影响,交界面处砂岩强度被"弱化"。当界面处煤体裂隙尖端的应力大于"弱化"后砂岩强度时,裂隙将穿过煤岩界面发育至砂岩中,砂岩呈现出屈曲层裂、劈裂成板的破坏形态。(2)高静载作用下,煤岩组合体变形破坏特征和声发射信号具有明显的前兆规律,组合体发生承载失效前煤体局部颗粒弹射动能增大、弹射颗粒块度降低,声发射信号由"高频低能"向"高频高能"转变,组合体的破坏形态以剪切-张拉复合破坏为主。(3)受冲击动载影响,顶底板砂岩夹持作用减弱,煤体裂纹尖端应力得不到有效积聚,裂纹扩展到煤岩交界面时被阻隔,组合体以煤样的张拉破坏为主,声发射信号呈现出"高频高能"的特点,但大多集中在冲击破坏之后,导致组合体动力破坏难以预测。(4)与纯静载作用相比,虽然动静载耦合作... 相似文献
100.
Wenguang Yang Hongbo Zheng Ke Wang Xin Xie Guocheng Chen Xi Mei 《Frontiers of Earth Science》2008,2(2):170-176
Sediments with high sedimentation rate at site MD05-2905 in the Northeastern slope of the South China Sea provide unique materials
for a high-resolution study on the paleoenvironment. Based on precise dating of AMS 14C, grain size analysis of terrigenous debris at core MD05-2905 was conducted after organic matter, biological carbonate and
biogenic opal were removed. The results show that 15.5–63.5 μm coarse grain size ingredients may indicate East Asian winter
monsoon changes and that 2–9 μm fine grain size ingredients may be used as a proxy of evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon.
The results of grain size analysis, which suggest East Asian monsoon intensity, reveal that a winter monsoon dominated the
glacial regime and a summer monsoon dominated the Holocene regime. It was also shown that the summer monsoon increased gradually,
experienced several abrupt changes and reached a culmination in the early Holocene (11200–8500 a B.P.) since 36 ka. Controlled
by precession periodicity, it may be related with the amount of solar radiation at the highest stage, which needs further
study.
__________
Translated from Advances in Earth Science, 2007, 22(10): 1012–1018 [译自: 地球科学进展] 相似文献