Outburst susceptibility assessment of moraine‐dammed lakes in Western Himalaya using an analytic hierarchy process

Glacier retreat results in the formation and expansion, and sometimes outburst, of moraine‐dammed lakes worldwide. Sudden outburst floods from such lakes have caused enormous damage to settlements and infrastructure located downstream. Such lakes located in the Himalayan region are highly prone to outburst floods due to climatic conditions and geotectonic settings. In this study, multi‐temporal Landsat images from 2002–2014, digital elevation models (DEMs), geomorphic analysis and modelling were used to assess the changes in glacial lakes and the outburst susceptibility of moraine‐dammed lakes in the Chandra–Bhaga basin of the north‐western Indian Himalaya. An inventory of lakes was developed using satellite data, thematic maps and ground‐based investigations for the Chandra–Bhaga basin. The total area of all glacial lakes (size >5000 m²) increased by 47% from 2002 to 2014, with a pronounced increase of 57% for moraine‐dammed lakes. Sixteen moraine‐dammed lakes were identified and assessed for outburst susceptibility using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Forty‐one reported glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) events from moraine‐dammed lakes in Himalayan regions were analysed, culminating in the identification of 11 critical factors for assessing outburst susceptibility using the AHP, including those related to the lake area and change, surrounding terrain characteristics, dam geometry, regional seismicity and rainfall history. The past three GLOF events in the Himalayan region were used to validate the method and to classify moraine‐dammed lakes as having very high, high, medium or low outburst susceptibility. Eight lakes classified as very high and high outburst susceptibility should be further investigated in detail. The proposed AHP‐based approach is suitable for first‐order identification of critical lakes for prioritising future detailed investigation and monitoring of moraine‐dammed glacial lakes in the Himalayan region. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical Characteristics on SEPs,Radio-Loud CMEs,Low Frequency Type II and Type III Radio Bursts Associated with Impulsive and Gradual Flares

We have statistically analyzed a set of 115 low frequency (Deca-Hectometer wavelengths range) type II and type III bursts associated with major Solar Energetic Particle (SEP: E_p?>?10 MeV) events and their solar causes such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed from 1997 to 2014. We classified them into two sets of events based on the duration of the associated solar flares:75 impulsive flares (duration <?60 min) and 40 gradual flares (duration >?60 min).On an average, the peak flux (integrated flux) of impulsive flares?×?2.9 (0.32 J m^?2) is stronger than that of gradual flares M6.8 (0.24 J m^?2). We found that impulsive flare-associated CMEs are highly decelerated with larger initial acceleration and they achieved their peak speed at lower heights (??27.66 m s^?2 and 14.23 R_o) than the gradual flare-associated CMEs (6.26 m s^?2 and 15.30 R_o), even though both sets of events have similar sky-plane speed (space speed) within LASCO field of view. The impulsive flare-associated SEP events (R_t?=?989.23 min: 2.86 days) are short lived and they quickly reach their peak intensity (shorter rise time) when compared with gradual flares associated events (R_t?=?1275.45 min: 3.34 days). We found a good correlation between the logarithmic peak intensity of all SEPs and properties of CMEs (space speed: cc?=?0.52, SE_cc?=?0.083), and solar flares (log integrated flux: cc?=?0.44, SE_cc?=?0.083). This particular result gives no clear cut distinction between flare-related and CME-related SEP events for this set of major SEP events. We derived the peak intensity, integrated intensity, duration and slope of these bursts from the radio dynamic spectra observed by Wind/WAVES. Most of the properties (peak intensity, integrated intensity and starting frequency) of DH type II bursts associated with impulsive and gradual flare events are found to be similar in magnitudes. Interestingly, we found that impulsive flare-associated DH type III bursts are longer, stronger and faster (31.30 min, 6.43 sfu and 22.49 MHz h^?1) than the gradual flare- associated DH type III bursts (25.08 min, 5.85 sfu and 17.84 MHz h^?1). In addition, we also found a significant correlation between the properties of SEPs and key parameters of DH type III bursts. This result shows a closer association of peak intensity of the SEPs with the properties of DH type III radio bursts than with the properties DH type II radio bursts, atleast for this set of 115 major SEP events.

     

Geology and geochemistry of giant quartz veins from the Bundelkhand Craton,central India and their implications

Giant quartz veins (GQVs; earlier referred to as ‘quartz reefs’) occurring in the Archean Bundelkhand Craton (29,000 km²) represent a gigantic Precambrian (∼2.15 Ga) silica-rich fluid activity in the central Indian shield. These veins form a striking curvilinear feature with positive relief having a preferred orientation NE-SW to NNE-SSW in the Bundelkhand Craton. Their outcrop widths vary from ≤1 to 70m and pervasively extend over tens of kilometers along the strike over the entire craton. Numerous younger thin quartz veins with somewhat similar orientation cut across the giant quartz veins. They show imprints of strong brittle to ductile-brittle deformation, and in places are associated with base metal and gold incidences, and pyrophyllite-diaspore mineralization. The geochemistry of giant quartz veins were studied. Apart from presenting new data on the geology and geochemistry of these veins, an attempt has been made to resolve the long standing debate on their origin, in favour of an emplacement due to tectonically controlled polyphase hydrothermal fluid activity.     

Large-scale precipitation estimation using Kalpana-1 IR measurements and its validation using GPCP and GPCC data

Large-scale precipitation estimation is very important for climate science because precipitation is a major component of the earth's water and energy cycles. In the present study, the GOES precipitation index technique has been applied to the Kalpana-1 satellite infrared (IR) images of every three-hourly, i.e., of 0000, 0300, 0600,??., 2100?hours UTC, for rainfall estimation as a preparatory to the INSAT-3D. After the temperatures of all the pixels in a grid are known, they are distributed to generate a three-hourly 24-class histogram of brightness temperatures of IR (10.5?C12.5???m) images for a 1.0°?×?1.0° latitude/longitude box. The daily, monthly, and seasonal rainfall have been estimated using these three-hourly rain estimates for the entire south-west monsoon period of 2009 in the present study. To investigate the potential of these rainfall estimates, the validation of monthly and seasonal rainfall estimates has been carried out using the Global Precipitation Climatology Project and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre data. The validation results show that the present technique works very well for the large-scale precipitation estimation qualitatively as well as quantitatively. The results also suggest that the simple IR-based estimation technique can be used to estimate rainfall for tropical areas at a larger temporal scale for climatological applications.     

Increasing trend of northeast monsoon rainfall over the equatorial Indian Ocean and peninsular India

Peninsular India and Sri Lanka receive major part of their annual rainfall during the northeast monsoon season (October–December). The long-term trend in the northeast monsoon rainfall over the Indian Ocean and peninsular India is examined in the vicinity of global warming scenario using the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) dataset available for the period 1979–2010. The result shows a significant increasing trend in rainfall rate of about 0.5 mm day^?1 decade^?1 over a large region bounded by 10 °S–10 °N and 55 °E–100 °E. The interannual variability of seasonal rainfall rate over peninsular India using conventional rain gauge data is also investigated in conjunction to the Indian Ocean dipole. The homogeneous rain gauge data developed by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology over peninsular India also exhibit the considerable upward rainfall trend of about 0.4 mm day^?1 decade^?1 during this period. The associated outgoing longwave radiation shows coherent decrease in the order of 2 W?m^?2 decade^?1 over the rainfall increase region.     

On thermal-convective instability in a stellar atmosphere with finite Larmor radius and Hall effects

The thermal-convective instability of a stellar atmosphere is considered to include rotation, finite Larmor radius and Hall effects in the presence of a uniform vertical magnetic field. The criterion for monotonic instability is found to be the same even if the above effects are included.