Precise Seismic Substructural Model of the Eocene Chorgali Limestone in the Turkwal Oil Field,Central Potwar,Pakistan

The precise seismic substructural interpretation of the Turkwal oil field in the Central Potwar region of district Chakwal of Pakistan has been carried out. The research work was confined to the large fore-thrust that serves as an anticlinal structural trap through ten 2D seismic lines. A precise seismic substructural model of the Eocene Chorgali Limestone with precise orientation of thrust and oblique slip faults shows the presence of a huge fracture, which made this deposit a good reservoir. The abrupt surface changes in dip azimuth for the Eocene Chorgali Limestone verifies the structural trends and also the presence of structural traps in the Turkwal field. The logs of three wells (Turkwal deep X-2, Turkwal-01 and Fimkassar-01) were analyzed for petrophysical studies, well synthetic results and generation of an Amplitude Versus Offset (AVO) model for the area. The AVO model of Turkwal deep X-2 shows abrupt changes in amplitude, which depicts the presence of hydrocarbon content. Well correlation technique was used to define the overall stratigraphic setting and the thickness of the reservoir formation in two wells, Turkwal-01 and Turkwal deep X-2. The Eocene Chorgali Limestone in Turkwal-01 is an upward thrusted anticlinal structure and because of the close position of both wells to the faulted anticlinal structure, its lesser thickness differs compared to Turkwal deep X-2. The overall results confirm that the Turkwal field is comparable to several similar thrust-bound oil-bearing structures in the Potwar basin.     

Frequency-interval control reconfigurability for automated processes

Faults in automated systems will often result in undesired behavior and shut-down of the processes. The consequences of these could be damage to the plant, to personnel and resources, or even to the environment. In particular, in the case of natural disasters, faults are often inevitable. The objective of the methods for fault-tolerant control (FTC) is to prevent simple faults turning into severe failure. Therefore, FTC methods help to increase plant availability and to reduce the risk of safety hazards. However, these methods cannot be effective if sufficient redundancy does not exist in the system. A measure for control reconfigurability which reveals the level of redundancy in connection with feedback control is proposed in this paper. The proposed control reconfigurability measure is developed in particular for many applications in which one is interested in analysis and control within a frequency-interval. Compared to the other counterparts, the proposed measure encodes more information on the level of redundancy within the frequency-interval of interest. An illustrative example is given to show the computation of frequency-interval control reconfigurability and its relevance to redundant actuating capabilities in the models.     

A combined geological, hydrochemical, and geophysical approach to understanding a disease contamination hazard in groundwaters at a state fish hatchery

At the Midway, Utah, USA fish hatchery, a groundwater development program was conducted to help transition the facility from surface to groundwater in response to contamination by whirling disease, which is caused by a trout parasite. The unconfined aquifer system that provided the hatchery water became infected through the recharge of infected irrigation water obtained from the Provo River. Whirling disease was first discovered in Utah in 1991 at a private fish farm. Infected fish from the farm quickly infected many of Utah’s waterways and infected the hatchery in 2000. Because the parasite completes its life cycle in multiple organisms and can survive for decades in a variety of harsh environments, a comprehensive study of the hydrostratigraphy and hydrodynamics at the hatchery was critical in order to understand the hazard and avoid further contamination. Drilling revealed the presence of a shallow unconfined (surface to 10 m) and two deeper confined aquifer systems (~20–35 m and >40 m bgs). Confinement is related to tufa layers, detected both by drilling and reflection seismology. The tufa layers are associated with past discharge of the thermal system. Vertical leakage is apparent from upward hydraulic head gradients and incrementally increasing unconfined aquifer discharge into downstream on-site drainage canals. High-resolution seismic profiles reveal small-offset faults that provide pathways for upward flow. Analysis of water quality data demonstrates an inverted geochemical gradient in that apparent ¹⁴C ages, solute concentrations, and temperatures decrease with depth. The origin of the inverted geochemical gradient is related to mixing of upwelling thermal, high-TDS waters with cold, low-TDS systems several kilometers up-gradient from the hatchery. Thermal upwelling appears to be fault controlled. Up-gradient of the hatchery, near-surface groundwater mixes with a larger proportion of thermal groundwater than does deeper groundwater. As these mixed systems flow toward the hatchery, a major locus of groundwater discharge, they are segregated into confined and unconfined compartments. Our study requires integration of hydrological, geochemical, and geophysical strategies in order to understand a complex natural hazard and thus may serve as a model for other similarly complex hydrological environments.     

Quality control and homogenization of daily meteorological data in the trans-boundary region of the Jhelum River basin

Many studies such as climate variability, climate change, trend analysis, hydrological designs, agriculture decision-making etc. require long-term homogeneous datasets. Since homogeneous climate data is not available for climate analysis in Pakistan and India, the present study emphases on an extensive quality control and homogenization of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation data in the Jhelum River basin, Pakistan and India. A combination of different quality control methods and relative homogeneity tests were applied to achieve the objective of the study. To check the improvement after homogenization, correlation coefficients between the test and reference series calculated before and after the homogenization process were compared with each other. It was found that about 0.59%, 0.78% and 0.023% of the total data values are detected as outliers in maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation data, respectively. About 32% of maximum temperature, 50% of minimum temperature and 7% of precipitation time series were inhomogeneous, in the Jhelum River basin. After the quality control and homogenization, 1% to 11% improvement was observed in the infected climate variables. This study concludes that precipitation daily time series are fairly homogeneous, except two stations (Naran and Gulmarg), and of a good quality. However, maximum and minimum temperature datasets require an extensive quality control and homogeneity check before using them into climate analysis in the Jhelum River basin.     

巴基斯坦地方地震台网的检测能力和可靠性分析

利用Bungum和Husebye的方法,分析了地方地震台网的检测能力和可靠性．用标准的计算机定位程序重新测定了地震位置．根据25年的地震记录,分别由震级-频度关系导出的50%、90%和100%的累积检测率估计了检测水平．对台网内地震,相应于100%检测率的震级下限为ＭＬ＝1.7．用台网内固定的实际震源,研究了台网对震源位置的测定精度．对网内地震,震中测定误差小于4 km．最后讨论了台网连续工作时可能会遇到的影响检测能力的一些问题．      

The 2014 seismic hazard model of the Middle East: overview and results

The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) Project aimed to develop regional scale seismic hazard and risk models uniformly throughout a region extending from the Eastern Mediterranean in the west to the Himalayas in the east and from the Gulf of Oman in the south to the Greater Caucasus in the North; a region which has been continuously devastated by large earthquakes throughout the history. The 2014 Seismic Hazard Model of Middle East (EMME-SHM14) was developed with the contribution of several institutions from ten countries. The present paper summarizes the efforts towards building a homogeneous seismic hazard model of the region and highlights some of the main results of this model. An important aim of the project was to transparently communicate the data and methods used and to obtain reproducible results. By doing so, the use of the model and results will be accessible by a wide community, further support the mitigation of seismic risks in the region and facilitate future improvements to the seismic hazard model. To this end all data, results and methods used are made available through the web-portal of the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.efehr.org).     

Delay in the onset of South Asian summer monsoon induced by local black carbon in an AGCM

The influence of local black carbon (BC) on monthly mean precipitation and the associated circulation in South Asia is investigated. The results show that the amplified shortwave radiative heating rate by BC absorption enhances convective activity near the Himalayas and the southern Tibetan Plateau with increased rainfall anomalies in April and May, which is consistent with previous studies. However, the enhanced vertical motions and the precipitation ultimately lead towards cooling of the lower troposphere especially in May, which is extended till June. This favored negative rainfall responses in June, implying delay in the onset of South Asian summer monsoon rainfalls over Arabian Sea and western parts of the subcontinent. The negative precipitation response is further associated with the prevailing anomalous high pressure and the anticyclonic wind circulations induced by BC. Thus, we present here one different feature associated with BC-induced elevated heat pump-like circulations in South Asia.     

Numerical modeling of rock failure under dynamic loading with polygonal elements

Polygonal finite elements are gaining an increasing attention in the computational mechanics literature, but their application in rock mechanics is very rare. This paper deals with numerical modeling of rock failure under dynamic loading based on polygonal finite elements. For this end, a damage-viscoplastic constitutive model for rock based on the Mohr-Coulomb criterion with the Rankine criterion as a tensile cutoff is employed and implemented with the polygonal finite element method. Moreover, the mineral mesostructure or rock is described by randomly mapping groups of polygonal elements representing the constituent minerals into a global mesh and assigning these groups with the corresponding mineral material properties. The performance of the polygonal elements is compared with that of the linear and quadratic triangular and bilinear quadrilateral elements in numerical simulations of controlled shear band formation under uniaxial compression and lateral splitting failure in the dogbone tension test. Numerical simulations of uniaxial tension and compression tests as well as dynamic Brazilian disc test under increasing loading rates demonstrate that the present approach predicts the correct failure modes as well as the dynamic increase in strength of rock.