Prediction of drought in dry lands through feedforward artificial neural network abilities

Drought is one of the most important natural hazards in Iran. It is especially more prevalent in arid and hyper arid regions where there are serious limitations in regard to providing sufficient water resources. On the other hand, drought modeling and particularly its prediction can play important role in water resources management under conditions of lack of sufficient water resources. Therefore, in this study, drought prediction in a hyper arid location of Iran (Ardakan region) has been surveyed based on the abilities of artificial neural. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in different time scales (3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 monthly time series) computed based on the data gathered from four rain gauge stations. After evaluation and testing of different artificial neural networks (ANN) structures, gradient descent back propagation (traingd) network showed higher abilities than others. Then, the predictions of SPI time series with different monthly lag times (1:12 months) were tested. Generally, drought prediction by ANNs in the Ardakan region has shown considerable results with the correlation coefficient (R) more than 0.79 and in the most cases and it rises more than 0.90, which indicates the ANN’s ability of drought prediction.     

A Bonded Particle Model Simulation of Shear Strength and Asperity Degradation for Rough Rock Fractures

Different failure modes during fracture shearing have been introduced including normal dilation or sliding, asperity cut-off and degradation. Attempts have been made to study these mechanisms using analytical, experimental and numerical methods. However, the majority of the existing models simplify the problem, which leads to unrealistic results. With this in mind, the aim of this paper is to simulate the mechanical behaviour of synthetic and rock fracture profiles during direct shear tests by using the two-dimensional particle flow computer code PFC2D. Correlations between the simulated peak shear strength and the fracture roughness parameter D _R1 recently proposed by Rasouli and Harrison (2010) are developed. Shear test simulations are carried out with PFC2D and the effects of the geometrical features as well as the model micro-properties on the fracture shear behaviour are studied. The shear strength and asperity degradation processes of synthetic profiles including triangular, sinusoidal and randomly generated profiles are analysed. Different failure modes including asperity sliding, cut-off, and asperity degradation are explicitly observed and compared with the available models. The D _R1 parameter is applied to the analysis of synthetic and rock fracture profiles. Accordingly, correlations are developed between D _R1 and the peak shear strength obtained from simulations and by using analytical solutions. The results are shown to be in good agreement with the basic understanding of rock fracture shear behaviour and asperity contact degradation.     

A study of erosion rates on salt diapir surfaces in the Zagros Mountains, SE Iran

Salt exposures and weathering residuum on several salt diapirs in different geographic/climatic settings were studied. Anhydrite, gypsum, hematite, calcite, dolomite, quartz, and clay minerals are the main constituents of the weathering residuum covering the salt diapirs in various thicknesses. Erosion rates of residuum as well as of rock salt exposures were measured at selected sites for a period of 5 years by plastic pegs as benchmarks. Recorded data were standardized to a horizontal surface and to long-term mean precipitation. For the rock salt exposures the following long-term denudation rates were determined of 30–40 mm a⁻¹ for coastal diapirs and up to 120 mm a⁻¹ for mountain salt diapirs. Long-term mean superficial denudation rate measured on weathering residuum of low thickness reached 3.5 mm a⁻¹ on coastal diapirs. The total denudation rate estimated for the thin residuum is close to 4–7 mm a⁻¹ based on apparent correlation with the uplift rate on Hormoz and Namakdan diapirs. Denudation of rock salt exposures is much faster compared to parts of diapirs covered by weathering residuum. The extent of salt exposures is an important factor in the morphological evolution of salt diapirs as it can inhibit further expansion of the diapir. Salt exposures produce huge amounts of dissolved and clastic load, thus affecting the surrounding of the diapir.     

Role of Multiple Décollement Horizons in the Structural Style of the Sefid-Zakhur Anticline in the Fars Province,Zagros Belt

Geotectonics - The geometry of the Sefid-Zakhur anticline, a gas reservoir in the Fars province, and the main controlling factors of the structural style in this anticline are studied in this...     

In-depth investigation of precipitation-based climate change and cyclic variation in different climatic zones

Climate change and cyclic variation are investigated based on station data of 61 years (1951–2011), representing twelve climatic zones in Iran. Climate change is investigated by applying the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and the three-dimensional loglinear model to the12-month SPI time series, and by applying the likelihood ratio test to precipitation time series. Cyclic variation is studied by applying the three-dimensional loglinear model to the 12-month SPI time series. Analysis included entire data period, two sub-periods [(1951–1981), (1982–2011)] and three sub-periods [(1951–1971), (1972–1991), (1992–2011)]. The Mann–Kendall test results indicated combinations of different trend behaviors, whereby climate change could not be evaluated. The likelihood ratio test did not confirm climate change (at 95 % confidence level), in most of the studied stations. However, the more in-depth analysis by the three-dimensional loglinear model, i.e., detection of significant differences among drought frequencies, did not confirm climate change (at 95 % confidence level), in any of the studied stations. Cyclic variation was not confirmed by the three-dimensional loglinear model (at 95 % confidence level), in any of the studied stations. The findings of this research illustrate the need for meticulous techniques like the three-dimensional loglinear model, as a necessary tool for climate change and cyclic variation studies.     

Electrokinetic Stabilization of Soft Soil Using Carbonate-Producing Bacteria

The carbonate (CO ₃ ^?2 ) produced by Sporosarcina pasteurii was injected electrokinetically to enhance the mechanical properties of soft clay soils. In this method the Ca²⁺ was injected into the anode chamber and moved towards the cathode by electromigration and electroosmotic flow. Then the released CO ₃ ^?2 from a blend of bacteria and urea was injected into the cathode chamber. The CO ₃ ^?2 ions were moved from the cathode to the anode under electromigration mechanism. The CaCO₃ was precipitated in the presence of calcium in porous medium of the soil, and consequently increased the shear strength of the soil. The polarity reversal was applied to have a homogeneous distribution of CaCO₃.     

Assessing the impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow,water quality and suspended sediment in the Kor River Basin,Southwest of Iran

This research addressed the separate and combined impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow, suspended sediment and water quality in the Kor River Basin, Southwest of Iran, using (BASINS–WinHSPF) model. The model was calibrated and validated for hydrology, sediment and water quality for the period 2003–2012. The model was run under two climate changes, two land use changes and four combined change scenarios for near-future period (2020–2049). The results revealed that projected climate change impacts include an increase in streamflow (maximum increases of 52% under RCP 2.6 in December and 170% under RCP 8.5). Projected sediment concentrations under climate change scenarios showed a monthly average decrease of 10%. For land use change scenarios, agricultural development scenario indicated an opposite direction of changes in orthophosphate (increases in all months with an average increase of 6% under agricultural development scenario), leading to the conclusion that land use change is the dominant factor in nutrient concentration changes. Combined impacts results indicated that streamflows in late fall and winter months increased while in summer and early fall decreased. Suspended sediment and orthophosphate concentrations were decreased in all months except for increases in suspended sediment concentrations in September and October and orthophosphate concentrations in late winter and early spring due to the impact of land use change scenarios.     

Preparation of frost atlas using different interpolation methods in a semiarid region of south of Iran

In this research, suitability of different kriging and inverse distance weighted (IDW) methods in estimating occurrence date of frost was evaluated. Data included minimum daily air temperature values from 27 meteorological stations of Fars province in southern Iran from 18 to 45 years. Data ranges of 0 to ?1.5, ?1.5 to ?3 and below ?3°C were considered as mild, moderate and severe frost intensities, respectively. Starting with the first day of autumn, iso-occurrence days for the frost intensities and occurrence probabilities (25%, 50%, 75% and 90%) were estimated using ordinary kriging, cokriging, residual kriging type 1 (RK1), residual kriging type 2 (RK2), universal kriging and IDW methods. In these models, the errors of estimated frost intensities at different probabilities were lowest in the RK2 model, but lack of establishment of spatial structure due to long distance between stations caused the predictions not to be acceptable in some cases. In a proposed method (modified inverse distance weighted, MIDW), the trend between the first and last days of frost occurrence with earth elevation was removed, and the reminder values were estimated by (IDW) method. Although, the errors for estimated frost dates by MIDW and RK2 methods were the same, but the MIDW method did not have the spatial establishment shortcoming. Furthermore, the simplicity and practicality of the MIDW method makes it a reasonable selection.