An Experiment Using the High Resolution Eta and WRF Models to Forecast Heavy Precipitation over India

In the present study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Eta models, recent heavy rainfall events that occurred (i) over parts of Maharastra during 26 to 27 July, 2005, (ii) over coastal Tamilnadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during 24 to 28 October, 2005, and (iii) the tropical cyclone of 30 September to 3 October, 2004/Monsoon Depression of 2 to 5 October 2004, that developed during the withdrawal phase of the southwest monsoon season of 2004 have been investigated. Also sensitivity experiments have been conducted with the WRF model to test the impact of microphysical and cumulus parameterization schemes in capturing the extreme weather events. The results show that the WRF model with the microphysical process and cumulus parameterization schemes of Ferrier et al. and Betts-Miller-Janjic was able to capture the heavy rainfall events better than the other schemes. It is also observed that the WRF model was able to predict mesoscale rainfall more realistically in comparison to the Eta model of the same resolution.     

Dynamic vertical compliance of strip foundations in layered soils

In this paper, results of a detailed investigation on the dynamic response of rigid strip foundations in viscoelastic soils under vertical excitation are presented. An advanced boundary element algorithm developed by incorporating isoparametric quadratic elements and a sophisticated self-adapting numerical integration scheme has been used for this investigation. Foundations supported on three types of soil profiles, namely, homogeneous half-space, stratum-over-half-space and stratum-over-bedrock are considered. The influence of material properties like Poisson's ratio and material damping as well as the influence of geometrical properties such as depth of embedment and layer thickness are studied. The effect of the type of contact at the soil-foundation interface is also investigated.     

Iron-Titanium Oxide Geothermometry and Petrogenesis of Lava Flows and Dykes from Mandla Lobe of the Eastern Deccan Volcanic Province, India

Compositional studies on different forms of magnetite, ulvospinel, ilmenite and hematite mineral phases occurring in 37 lava flows and 6 dykes of the Mandla lobe are presented in this paper. Ilmenite (0001) in equilibrium with titanomanetite show high values of temperature of equilibration, ranging from 1172–974°C, for high alumina quartz normative tholeiitic lava flows of Chemical Type - A; 1129–1229°C for low alumina quartz normative tholeiitic lava flows of Chemical Type - B; 1283–1124°C for tholeiitic lava flows of Chemical Type - F and 1243°C and 99O°C for two diopside olivine normative tholeiite flows of Chemical Type D. High olivine normative flows of Chemical Type - G and H show 1095°C and 1092°C respectively. Whereas, high hypersthene normative tholeiite flow of Chemical me C shows temperature of 1187°C. Data plots disposition over iron-titanium oxide equilibration temperature vs – logfo₂, diagram for Mandla lava flows and other parts of the Deccan (Igatpuri, Mahabaleshwer, Nagpur and Sagar areas) revealed that tholeiitic (evolved) basalt of the eastern Deccan volcanic province formed at high temperatures whereas, picritic (primitive) lavas of Igatpuri and tholeiitic basalt of Mahabaleshwar areas were formed at low temperatures. Mahabaleshwer basalts follow FMQ (fayalite-magnetite-quartz) buffer curve but, plots of the Mandla basalts lie above this curve indicating higher temperatures of crystallisation of ilmenite-titanomagnetite than that of the lava flows from other parts of Deccan 'Raps. The eastern Deccan Traps are most evolved types of lava as characterised by its low Mg-number and Ni content whereas, Igatpuri lava flows are picritic (primitive), having high Mg-number and Ni contents. Temperature vs FeO + Fe₂O₃ / FeO + Fe₂O₃ + MgO ratio data plots for Mandla and other Deccan lava flows and liquidus data for Hawaiian tholeiites, indicated that Igatpuri basalts lie parallel to the liquidus line of Hawaiian tholeiite but at lower temperatures. Large data plots of Mandla lava flows lie along the liquidus line of the Hawaiian lava. The highly vesicular nature of compound lava flows having large amount of volatile is responsible for low temperature values whereas, lava flows represented by high temperatures show high modal values of glass and opaque minerals.     

Fluxes of Sr into the headwaters of the Ganges

Himalayan weathering is recognized as an important agent in modifying sea water chemistry, but there are significant uncertainties in our understanding of Himalayan riverine fluxes. This paper examines causes of the variability, including that of the seasons, by analysis of downstream variations in Sr, ⁸⁷Sr, and major ions in the mainstream, in relation to the composition of tributary streams from subcatchments with differing geologic substrates.Water samples were collected over four periods spanning the premonsoon, monsoon, and postmonsoon seasons. Uncertainties in the relative fluxes have been estimated, using Monte Carlo techniques, from the short-term variability of mainstream chemistry and the scatter of tributary compositions. The results show marked seasonal variations in the relative inputs related to high monsoon rainfall in the High and Lesser Himalaya, contrasting with the major contribution from glacial melt waters from the Tibetan Sedimentary Series (TSS) at times of low rainfall. Much of the spread in previously published estimates of the sources of Sr in Himalayan rivers may result from these seasonal variations in Sr fluxes.The annual fluxes of Sr into the headwaters of the Ganges are derived from the three main tectonic units in the proportions 35 ± 1% from the TSS, 27 ± 3% from the High Himalayan Crystalline Series (HHCS), and 38 ± 8% from the Lesser Himalaya. The particularly elevated ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios characteristic of the HHCS and the Lesser Himalaya enhance their influence on seawater Sr-isotope composition. The TSS contributes 13 ± 1%, the HHCS 30 ± 3%, and the Lesser Himalaya 57 ± 11% of the ⁸⁷Sr flux in excess of the seawater ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of 0.709.     

Markov CA,Multi Regression,and Multiple Decision Making for Modeling Historical Changes in Kirkuk City,Iraq

The cellular automata (CA) model is an important tool in land use change studies. Swift increases in population and long-term expectations of rapid urbanization have led to extensive land use change, and normal living conditions have affected the natural resources of the land. This paper highlights and analyzes the historical urban changes in Kirkuk City, Iraq, considering repeated changes undergone by the state such change as government infrastructures, wars, and economic blockade. In this paper, an integrated model, built-in multi regression model, and multi-criteria evaluation were considered to improve the representation of CA transition rules. Environmental and socioeconomic factors were used to produce Suitable Maps (SMs). These SMs were practicalities to create factor layers and weight usage, rating method process for variance expert decision-making groups, and geographic information systems for the periods 1984, 1990, 2000, and 2010. The roots of the equation (R²) values are compared and these values are chosen to produce a good model of suitable maps. The approach used in this study provides a mechanism for monitoring suitability maps in Kirkuk. Furthermore, the model Markov CA is implemented and evaluated. The results indicate that the model, its related concepts performs sufficiency     

The origin of tin deposits in the Mount Wells region,Pine Creek Geosyncline,Northern Territory

Tabular steeply dipping cassiterite‐bearing lodes in the Mount Wells region are hosted by lower greenschist fades metasediment of the Pine Creek Geosyncline within the contact aureole of late orogenic granitoids. The latter are predominantly I‐type, but S‐type phases are developed near the sediment‐granitoid contact.

Quartz, cassiterite, pyrite, arsenopyrite, chalcopyrite and pyrrhotite are the main minerals. Two types of lodes are present: (i) Sn‐quartz lodes containing 5–10 vol% sulphide minerals; and (ii) Sn‐sulphide lodes containing ～ 70 vol% sulphide minerals. At the surface, the former appear as normal quartz veins and the latter as hematite‐quartz breccia resulting from the collapse of original sulphide‐rich lodes as a consequence of volume reduction due to oxidation and leaching.

Two stages of quartz veining are recognized in both types of lodes. Cassiterite is present in stage I while stage II is composed of barren quartz with minor pyrite. Late stage III carbonate veinlets are present in Sn‐sulphide lodes. The lode‐wallrock contact is sharp with weak alteration effects confined to the fringe of the lodes. The alteration minerals include sericite, quartz, tourmaline, chlorite, pyrite and minor K‐feldspar.

Four types of fluid inclusions are present in vein quartz and cassiterite: Type A (CO₂ ± H₂O ± CH₄); Type B (H₂O+～ 20% vapour); Type C (H₂O+ < 15% vapour) and Type D (H₂O+ < 15% vapour + NaCl). Early ‘primary’ inclusions represented by Types A and B are present in stage I only and have a well‐defined temperature mode at ～300°C and a salinity range of 1–20 wt% eq NaCl. Types C and D inclusions are ‘secondary’ in stage I and primary in stage II and have a temperature mode at 120–160°C and salinities from about 1 to more than 26 wt% eq NaCl. Variable H₂O‐CO₂ ratios of Type A inclusions and homogenization in CO₂ or H₂O phase at near identical temperature indicate entrapment at the H₂O‐CO₂ solvus and define a pressure of ～ 100 MPa. The melting sequence of frozen inclusions suggests that the ore fluids were mainly H₂O‐CO₂‐CH₄‐Na‐Ca‐Cl brines. This is also confirmed by Raman Laser Spectrometry.

Oxygen and sulphur isotope data are consistent with a magmatic origin of the ore fluids. The δD values are up to 20%0 higher than those expected for magmatic fluids and probably resulted from interaction of the latter with the carbonaceous strata. This interpretation is supported by δ¹³C data on the fluid inclusion CO₂.

Fluid inclusions, stable isotope and mineralogical data are used to approximate the physico‐chemical parameters of the ore fluids which are as follows: T 300°C, m Cl～2, fO₂ ～ 10^‐35, mSS ～ 0.01, Sn ～ 1 ppm, Cu ～ 1 ppm and pH ～ 5.5.

It is suggested that fluids of granitic parentage interacted with the enclosing sediment and picked up CO₂, CH₄ and possibly Ca. The granitic phases became reduced due to this interaction and developed S‐type characteristics. Tin was probably partitioned into the CH₄‐bearing reduced fluids. At some stage the fluid overpressure exceeded the lithostatic lode enforcing failure of the carapace and the intruded rocks by hydraulic fracturing causing CH₄ and CO₂ loss resulting in the precipitation of the ore minerals.     

Household vulnerability and resilience in flood hazards from disaster-prone areas of Punjab,Pakistan

Natural Hazards - An environmental variation has caused Pakistan an alarming portrait of vulnerability in flood disasters. The government has focused on a number of realistic actions, heartening...     

Evaluation of the real-time TRMM-based multi-satellite precipitation analysis for an operational flood prediction system in Nzoia Basin,Lake Victoria,Africa

Many researchers seek to take advantage of the recently available and virtually uninterrupted supply of satellite-based rainfall information as an alternative and supplement to the ground-based observations in order to implement a cost-effective flood prediction in many under-gauged regions around the world. Recently, NASA Applied Science Program has partnered with USAID and African-RCMRD to implement an operational water-hazard warning system, SERVIR-Africa. The ultimate goal of the project is to build up disaster management capacity in East Africa by providing local governmental officials and international aid organizations a practical decision-support tool in order to better assess emerging flood impacts and to quantify spatial extent of flood risk, as well as to respond to such flood emergencies more expediently. The objective of this article is to evaluate the applicability of integrating NASA’s standard satellite precipitation product with a flood prediction model for disaster management in Nzoia, sub-basin of Lake Victoria, Africa. This research first evaluated the TMPA real-time rainfall data against gauged rainfall data from the year 2002 through 2006. Then, the gridded Xinanjiang Model was calibrated to Nzoia basin for period of 1985–2006. Benchmark streamflow simulations were produced with the calibrated hydrological model using the rain gauge and observed streamflow data. Afterward, continuous discharge predictions forced by TMPA 3B42RT real-time data from 2002 through 2006 were simulated, and acceptable results were obtained in comparison with the benchmark performance according to the designated statistic indices such as bias ratio (20%) and NSCE (0.67). Moreover, it is identified that the flood prediction results were improved with systematically bias-corrected TMPA rainfall data with less bias (3.6%) and higher NSCE (0.71). Although the results justify to suggest to us that TMPA real-time data can be acceptably used to drive hydrological models for flood prediction purpose in Nzoia basin, continuous progress in space-borne rainfall estimation technology toward higher accuracy and higher spatial resolution is highly appreciated. Finally, it is also highly recommended that to increase flood forecasting lead time, more reliable and more accurate short- or medium-range quantitative precipitation forecasts is a must.