一种插值相似方法作温度预测的应用研究

将插值方法运用到短期气象预测中，其基本原理是按照相似原理将产生相似结果来作预报。对云南昆明等四站温度进行了九年定性和定量预报检验，结果表明：这种方法具有良好的预报能力，可以作要素预报应用。     

ANALYSIS OF SOIL EROSION CHARACTERISTICS AND SEDIMENT SOURCES FOR THE YANTZE THREE GORGES REGION

In this paper the researches made in 1981-1990 have identified that the annual soil loss in the Three Gorges region is 157 million t. and the annual incoming sediment load of the Three Gorges reservoir is 40 million t. Soil erosion increases with the destruction of vegetative cover and its subsequent evolution. The annual amounts of sediment erosion for forest land, shrub land, grassland and farmland make up respectively 6.19%, 10.76%, 23.05% and 60% of the total erosion of the Three Gorges region; the quantities of incoming sediment load to the Yangtze River from the above four types of land account for 5.95%, 12.42%, 35.46% and 46.1 % of the total amount of sediment transported to the reservoir. The farmland of offers the main source of sediment. Gravitational erosion produces more bed loads, which will present serious threat to the Three Gorges Project if entering the reservoir. Resettlement of people to the upper parts of the mountainous areas for agricultural production will increase the sediment yield of the Three Gorges region by 10-20 million t and increase the incoming sediment of the Yangtze River by 50-60 million t. Consequently, it is necessary to make a realistic assessment of the soil erosion in the Three Gorges region.     

大欧拉角的空间直角坐标转换方法探讨

首先指出建立使用大旋转角的空间直角坐标转换模型的必要性，接着推导出以罗德里格矩阵为旋转矩阵的大欧拉角空间直角坐标转换的数学模型，然后以布尔沙模型为例、以Visual C#．NET2003编制了计算软件。该算法具有性能稳定、计算收敛速度快、精确度高、转换参数初始值可以为任意值的优点。     

Numerical Simulation of Long-Term Climate Change in East Asia

A 10-yr regional climate simulation was performed using the fifth-generation PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 3 (MM5V3) driven by large-scale NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Simulations of winter and summer mean regional climate features were examined against observations. The results showed that the model could well simulate the 10-yr winter and summer mean circulation, temperature, and moisture transport at middle and low levels. The simulated winter and summer mean sea level pressure agreed with the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data. The model could well simulate the distribution and intensity of winter mean precipitation rates as well as the distribution of summer mean precipitation rates, but it overestimated the summer mean precipitation over North China. The model's ability to simulate the regional climate change in winter was superior to that in summer. In addition, the model could simulate the inter-annual variation of seasonal precipitation and surface air temperature. Geopotential heights and temperature at middle and high levels between simulations and observations exhibited high anomaly correlation coefficients. The model also showed large variability to simulate the regional climate change associated with the El Nino events. The MM5V3 well simulated the anomalies of summer mean precipitation in 1992 and 1995, while it demonstrated much less ability to simulate that in 1998. Generally speaking, the MM5V3 is capable of simulating the regional climate change, and could be used for long-term regional climate simulation.     

晋南中条山古元古代花岗岩的锆石U—Pb年龄

用单颗粒锆石U-Pb稀释法测定了中条山古元古代花岗岩的时代,获得寨子英云闪长质片麻岩、横岭关花岗闪长质片麻岩和烟庄钾长-二长花岗质片麻岩的成岩年龄分别为2321 Ma±2Ma、2256Ma±35Ma和2297Ma±21 Ma.结合区域地质背景和地球化学资料,认为中条山地区可能存在时限为2350～2250Ma的构造-热事件.     

盐井二次定向对接连通施工工艺

新汶矿业集团泰山盐化工ZJ03-PJ03井组为一对定向连通采卤井井组，采用二次定向钻井连通施工工艺，技术套管下入深度907．6m（8矿层顶板），有效地阻隔了上部含较多杂质的岩盐矿层，确保了卤水质量能满足盐化工的需要。本对接连通井组，采用随钻测量井斜、方位及钻进轨迹控制技术，为该井组的顺利对接提供了技术保障。     

内蒙古夏季干旱的水汽输送特征分析

对于大气中水汽的定性、定量测量是提高内蒙古干旱研究与预测的有效手段。利用NCEP再分析资料和内蒙古地区实测降水资料（1961-2000年），定性、定量地分析东亚水汽分布、水汽输送与内蒙古夏季干旱的关系。得出内蒙古地区上空低层大气的含水量偏少是内蒙古夏季干旱的一个重要因素。由于青藏高原大地形作用，孟加拉湾和南海的水汽北上受阻，不能达到内蒙古高原是形成内蒙古干旱的又一原因。受大气环流影响，内蒙古高原水汽辐合偏弱是内蒙古夏季干旱的重要原因。青藏高原的水汽通量与内蒙古东西部降水都存在明显负相关；孟加拉湾至内蒙古西部是内蒙古西部地区降水的水汽通道，南海至中国东北地区为内蒙古东部降水的水汽通道。     

Testing the Ability of Numerical Model to Simulate Climate and Its Change With 4D-EOF Analysis

The four-dimensional empirical orthogonal function (4D-EOF), which in reality is a simple combination of three-dimensional EOF (3D-EOF) and extended EOF (EEOF), is put forward in this paper to test the ability of numerical model to simulate climate and its change. The 4D-E0F analysis is able to reveal not only the horizontal characteristic pattern of analyzed variable, and its corresponding annual and inter-annual variations, but also the vertical structural characteristics. The method suggested is then used to analyze the monthly mean 100-, 500-, 70G-, and 1000-hPa geopotential height fields (4941 grids and grid spacing 60 km) and their anomaly fields in 1989-1998 simulated by the MM5V3 from the RMIP (Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project for East Asia)-II, as well as their counterparts (used as the observed fields) from the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis dataset in the same period. The ability of MM5V3 in simulating East Asian climate and its change is tested by comparing the 4D-EOF analysis results of the simulated and observed datasets. The comparative analyzed results show that the horizontal pattern of the first eigenvector of the observed monthly mean geopotential height fields and its vertical equivalent barotropic feature were well simulated; the simulations of the first two eigenvectors of the observed monthly mean geopotential height anomaly fields were also successful for their horizontal abnormal distributions and significant equivalent barotropic features in the vertical were well reproduced; and furthermore, the observed characteristics, such as the variation with height, the annual and inter-annual variations of the monthly mean geopotential height/anomaly fields were also well reflected in the simulation. Therefore, the 4D-EOF is able to comprehensively test numerical model's ability of simulating the climate and its change, and the simulation ability of MM5V3 for the climate and its change in East Asia in the 1990s was satisfactory.     

Accurate Determination of Electron Densities in Active and Quiescent Prominences: the Mid-Infrared Advantage

We have analyzed all lines in the MIR (8 to 20 micron) spectra of a quiescent and two time-frames of an active prominence. In the quiescent prominence, in addition to those lines found by Zirker (1985), we have identified a higher excitation hydrogen line and two helium recombination lines. Accounting for instrumental broadening, we can further separate out the Doppler and the Stark contributions to the line width. The former yields maximum temperatures of 6200 K, 34000 K and 12000 K and the latter electric field strengths of 7, 17, and 10 V cm^-1 for the above prominences, respectively. We show that these electric fields when divided by 2.2 are equal to the normal electric field in Holtsmark's quasi-static Stark broadening theory. Hence, we obtain electron densities of N₃=2.4(0.3), 9.1(1.2), and 5.5(0.6) in units of 10¹⁰ cm^-3 respectively. Using the same assumptions as made by Zirker, namely, (1) the strongest line (7-6) is optically thin, (2) the population of the lower level (n=6) is determined by direct radiative recombination and photo-ionization, (3) the equality of proton and electron densities, and (4) the thickness of the prominence is at least 10⁸ cm, we derive a new inequality, N_e 1.83 × 10⁸ T^0.75 e^-2195/T. Substituting our maximum temperatures into the right-hand side, we find upper bound N_e values of 9, 43, and 30 in the same units as above. These upper bound values are comfortably higher than our measurement, unlike those of Zirker's derived from the same set of assumptions. We have also observed the helium recombination spectrum which has been postulated by Tandberg-Hanssen as one of three possible ways of equilibrating the triplet/singlet ratio. Surprisingly, it is present in the quiescent as well as in the active prominence. We show that no meaningful values can be found for the turbulent velocities by combining the helium with the hydrogen line widths.