COHERENT GENERATION OF NARROW-BAND CIRCULARLY POLARIZED RADIO BURSTS FROM THE SUN AND FLARE STARS

It is shown that narrow-band radio bursts of right- and left-hand circular polarizations from the Sun and flare stars can be produced via nonlinear conversion of Langmuir waves into high-frequency electromagnetic electron cyclotron waves near the plasma frequency by coupling to low-frequency electromagnetic cyclotron waves such as Alfvén-ion cyclotron or magnetosonic-whistler waves.     

The bayesian probabilistic prediction of the next earthquake in the ometepec segment of the mexican subduction zone

A predictive equation to estimate the next interoccurrence time () for the next earthquake (M6) in the Ometepec segment is presented, based on Bayes' theorem and the Gaussian process.Bayes' theorem is used to relate the Gaussian process to both a log-normal distribution of recurrence times () and a log-normal distribution of magnitudes (M) (Nishenko andBuland, 1987;Lomnitz, 1964). We constructed two new random variablesX=InM andY=In with normal marginal densities, and based on the Gaussian process model we assume that their joint density is normal. Using this information, we determine the Bayesian conditional probability. Finally, a predictive equation is derived, based on the criterion of maximization of the Bayesian conditional probability. The model forecasts the next interoccurrence time, conditional on the magnitude of the last event.Realistic estimates of future damaging earthquakes are based on relocated historical earthquakes. However, at the present time there is a controversy between Nishenko-Singh and Gonzalez-Ruiz-Mc-Nally concerning the rupturing process of the 1907 earthquake. We use our Bayesian analysis to examine and discuss this very important controversy. To clarify to the full significance of the analysis, we put forward the results using two catalogues: (1) The Ometepec catalogue without the 1907 earthquake (González-Ruíz-McNally), and (2) the Ometepec catalogue including the 1907 earthquake (Nishenko-Singh).The comparison of the prediction error reveals that in the Nishenko-Singh catalogue, the errors are considerably smaller than the average error for the González-Ruíz-McNally catalogue of relocated events.Finally, using the Nishenko-Singh catalogue which locates the 1907 event inside the Ometepec segment, we conclude that the next expected damaging earthquake (M6.0) will occur approximately within the next time interval =11.82 years from the last event (which occurred on July 2, 1984), or equivalently will probably occur in April, 1996.     

Biogeochemistry of surface sediments off Concepción (∼36°S), Chile: El Niño vs. non-El Niño conditions

We compared the signals of several water column properties (upwelling intensity, sea level anomaly, temperature, nutrients, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll-a, and surface sediments) of the continental shelf off Concepción (36°S) during the 1997-1998 El Niño with those of a normal year (2002-2003). We found that the primary hydrographic effect of El Niño 1997-1998 was a reduction in the input of nutrient-rich, oxygen-poor Equatorial Subsurface Water over the shelf. This affected the biology of the water column, as evidenced by the reduced phytoplankton biomass. Surface sediment properties (biogenic opal, organic carbon, bulk δ¹⁵N) observed during El Niño 1997-1998 reflected a reduced export production and the sediments failed to show the water column seasonality that occurs under normal conditions. In addition, weakened denitrification and/or upper water column fertilization could be inferred from the sedimentary δ¹⁵N. Although diminished, export production was preserved in the surface sediments, revealing less degraded organic matter in the upwelling period of the El Niño year than in the normal year. We suggest that the fresher organic material on the seafloor was probably associated with a severe reduction in the polychaete Parapronospio pinnata, which is considered to be the most important metazoan remineralizer of organic carbon at the sediment-water interface in the study area.     

An evaluation of sampling and full enumeration strategies for Fisher Jenks classification in big data settings

Large data contexts present a number of challenges to optimal choropleth map classifiers. Application of optimal classifiers to a sample of the attribute space is one proposed solution. The properties of alternative sampling‐based classification methods are examined through a series of Monte Carlo simulations. The impacts of spatial autocorrelation, number of desired classes, and form of sampling are shown to have significant impacts on the accuracy of map classifications. Tradeoffs between improved speed of the sampling approaches and loss of accuracy are also considered. The results suggest the possibility of guiding the choice of classification scheme as a function of the properties of large data sets.     

Cosmology after COBE

The measured anisotropies in the temperature of the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMB) by the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) are consistent with models of gravitational collapse for the formation of large scale structure in the universe. The amplitude of cosmological fluctuations on the largest scales is fixed by COBE. From COBE's data it is also possible to test for the shape of the primordial spectrum. Statistical tests using COBE's two year data and based on the geometric characteristics of anisotropy spots taking into account cosmic variance and the relevant experimental details indicate that the primordial spectrum has a slope in the rangen = 0.8 – 1.3. Possible identification of hot and cold spots of cosmological origin is also given.Presented at the Fourth United Nations/European Space Agency Workshop on Basic Space Science. Cairo, Egypt, 27 June - 1 July 1994.     

Large thrust earthquakes and volcanic eruptions

Forty-eight hours after the occurrence of the May 22, 1960 (M _W =9.5) Chile earthquake, Puyehue volcano initiated its eruptive activity. The closeness in space and time of both phenomena provides us with a unique opportunity to examine the possible causal relationship between the sudden strain change and the mechanism of the eruption. From the slip distribution of the 1960 event (Barrientos andWard, 1990) and a static propagator technique, which allows for variable slip faults in vertically heterogeneous media, I calculate the strain field and its depth dependence in the region beneath the volcano. The presented semi-analytical formalism can be applied to any two-dimensional dipping fault. Calculations show extension at the surface of the order of 40 strain, in agreement with what was observed in triangulation networks in the central valley about 50 km oceanward from the line of volcanoes. The amplitude of the strain field beneath the volcano is uniform up to a depth of 20 km and decreases downward. The sudden extension of the region is thought to be the main factor in facilitating the eruption of the volcano. It is postulated that strain beneath the volcano triggered the eruption of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcanic system because it was in a mature stage of its eruptive cycle and there was lack of eruptive activity in other volcanoes located along the 1960 rupture region in the immediate period following the earthquake.     

Contrasts in sedimentation flux below the southern California Current in late 1996 and during the El Niño event of 1997–1998

The vertical flux of particulate matter at 330 m depth in San Lázaro Basin off southern Baja California ranged from 63 to 587 mg m⁻² d⁻¹ between August and November 1996. Organic carbon contents were between 5.6 and 14.8%, yielding flux rates of 9–40 mgC m⁻² d⁻¹. In December 1997 and January 1998, at the height of the strong El Niño event, the respective fluxes (47–202 mg m⁻² d⁻¹ and 3–8 mgC m⁻² d⁻¹) were comparable. The February–June 1998 records, however, revealed sharply reduced mass (1–6 mg m⁻² d⁻¹) and organic carbon (0.2–0.8 mgC m⁻² d⁻¹) fluxes. The organics collected in 1996 were predominantly autochthonous (δ¹³C=−22‰; C/N=8). The variations in δ¹⁵N (8.3–11.0‰) suggest an alternation of new and regenerated production, possibly associated with fluctuations in the intensity of deep mixing during that autumn. The relatively high organic matter fluxes in December 1997 appear to be associated with regenerated production. The average composition from February to June 1998 (δ¹³C=−23.6‰; ¹⁵N=11.7‰; C/N=10.5) indicates degraded material of marine origin. The maximum δ¹⁵N value found (14‰) suggests that deeper, denitrified waters were brought to the surface and possibly advected laterally. Regime changes in the waters of the basin occur at 6–10 week intervals, evidenced by concurrent shifts in most of the measured parameters, including fecal pellet types and metal chemistry. The marine snow-dominated detritus collected showed a shift from a mixed diatom-rich-radiolarian-coccolith assemblage in late 1996 to a coccolith-dominated assemblage, including the contents of fecal pellets, during the 1997–1998 El-Niño period. T–S profiles, plankton analysis and chlorophyll contents of the upper water column indicated that the strong phytoplankton bloom, normally associated with seasonal upwelling along the Pacific coast of Baja, did not occur during the spring of 1998. The persistence of oligotrophic conditions during the 1997–1998 El Niño event favored the dominance of nanoplankton and reduced the vertical flux of particles.     

Fluorine speciation in topsoils of three active volcanoes of Sicily (Italy)

Fluorine is one of the many environmental harmful elements released by volcanic activity. The content of total oxalate-extractable and water-extractable fluorine was determined in 96 topsoils of three active volcanic systems of southern Italy (Mt Etna, Stromboli and Vulcano). Total fluorine (F) content (F _TOT) ranges from 112 to 7,430 mg kg⁻¹, F extracted with oxalate (F _OX) ranges from 16 to 2,320 mg kg⁻¹ (2–93% of F _TOT) and F extracted with distilled water ( ) ranges from 1.7 to 159 mg kg⁻¹ (0.2–40 % of F _TOT). Fluorine in the sampled topsoils derives both from the weathering of volcanic rocks and ashes and from the enhanced deposition due to volcanic gas emissions either from open-conduit passive degassing (Mt Etna and Stromboli) or from a fumarolic field (Vulcano). Fluorine accumulation in the studied soils does not generally present particular environmental issues except for a few anomalous sites at Vulcano, where measured contents could be dangerous both for vegetation and for grazing animals.