Seismic response of the Mexico City Basin: A review of twenty years of research

Mexico City, political and economic center of Mexico, was founded in a lake, at more than 2000 m above sea level. The lacustrine mud under the downtown area is associated with high seismic risk. Twenty years after the destructive 1985 earthquake (Ms = 8.1) we review published research on seismic response in the Mexico Basin, especially seismic and microtremor studies on soft ground and the influence of the seismic response of lake mud on damage.     

Show me the code: spatial analysis and open source

This paper considers the intersection of academic spatial analysis with the open source revolution. Its basic premise is that the potential for cross-fertilization between the two is rich, yet some misperceptions about these two communities pose challenges to realizing these opportunities. The paper provides a primer on the open source movement for academicians with an eye towards correcting these misperceptions. It identifies a number of ways in which increased adoption of open source practices in spatial analysis can enhance the development of the next generation of tools and the wider practice of scientific research and education.

Modelling Gravitational Instabilities: Slab Break–off and Rayleigh–Taylor Diapirism

A non-standard new code to solve multiphase viscous thermo–mechanical problems applied to geophysics is presented. Two numerical methodologies employed in the code are described: A level set technique to track the position of the materials and an enrichment of the solution to allow the strain rate to be discontinuous across the interface. These techniques have low computational cost and can be used in standard desktop PCs. Examples of phase tracking with level set are presented in two and three dimensions to study slab detachment in subduction processes and Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities, respectively. The modelling of slab detachment processes includes realistic rheology with viscosity depending on temperature, pressure and strain rate; shear and adiabatic heating mechanisms; density including mineral phase changes and varying thermal conductivity. Detachment models show a first prolonged period of thermal diffusion until a fast necking of the subducting slab results in the break–off. The influence of several numerical and physical parameters on the detachment process is analyzed: The shear heating exerts a major influence accelerating the detachment process, reducing the onset time to one half and lubricating the sinking of the detached slab. The adiabatic heating term acts as a thermal stabilizer. If the mantle temperature follows an adiabatic gradient, neglecting this heating term must be included, otherwise all temperature contrasts are overestimated. As expected, the phase change at 410 km depth (olivine–spinel transition) facilitates the detachment process due to the increase in negative buoyancy. Finally, simple plume simulations are used to show how the presented numerical methodologies can be extended to three dimensions.     

Nonparametric geostatistical risk mapping

In this work, a fully nonparametric geostatistical approach to estimate threshold exceeding probabilities is proposed. To estimate the large-scale variability (spatial trend) of the process, the nonparametric local linear regression estimator, with the bandwidth selected by a method that takes the spatial dependence into account, is used. A bias-corrected nonparametric estimator of the variogram, obtained from the nonparametric residuals, is proposed to estimate the small-scale variability. Finally, a bootstrap algorithm is designed to estimate the unconditional probabilities of exceeding a threshold value at any location. The behavior of this approach is evaluated through simulation and with an application to a real data set.     

Tropical land savannization: impact of global warming

This study investigates the impact of global warming on the savannization of the tropical land region and also examines the relative roles of the impact of the increase of greenhouse gas concentration and future changes in land cover on the tropical climate. For this purpose, a mechanistic–statistical–dynamical climate model with a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate is used. The results showed that climate change due to deforestation is more than that due to greenhouse gases in the tropical region. The warming due to deforestation corresponds to around 60% of the warming in the tropical region when the increase of CO₂ concentration is included together. However, the global warming due to deforestation is negligible. On the other hand, with the increase of CO₂ concentration projected for 2100, there is a lower decrease of evapotranspiration, precipitation and net surface radiation in the tropical region compared with the case with only deforestation. Differently from the case with only deforestation, the effect of the changes in the net surface radiation overcomes that due to the evapotranspiration, so that the warming in the tropical land region is increased. The impact of the increase of CO₂ concentration on a deforestation scenario is to increase the reduction of the areas covered by tropical forest (and a corresponding increase in the areas covered by savanna) which may reach 7.5% in future compared with the present climate. Compared with the case with only deforestation, drying may increase by 66.7%. This corroborates with the hypothesis that the process of savannization of the tropical forest can be accelerated in future due to global warming.     

Hall effect on magnetic reconnection at the Earth's magnetopause

We analyze in situ observations of magnetic reconnection at the Earth magnetopause to estimate the importance of the Hall current during the merging of interplanetary and magnetospheric magnetic field lines. The reconnection process is studied through numerical simulations, integrating the Hall MHD equations in 2.5 dimensions. A large influence of the Hall effect is found, which can be measured by a significant increase of the reconnection rate.     

Fault-controlled Soil CO2 Degassing and Shallow Magma Bodies: Summit and Lower East Rift of Kilauea Volcano (Hawaii), 1997

Soil CO₂ flux measurements were carried out along traverses across mapped faults and eruptive fissures on the summit and the lower East Rift Zone of Kilauea volcano. Anomalous levels of soil degassing were found for 44 of the tectonic structures and 47 of the eruptive fissures intercepted by the surveyed profiles. This result contrasts with what was recently observed on Mt. Etna, where most of the surveyed faults were associated with anomalous soil degassing. The difference is probably related to the differences in the state of activity at the time when soil gas measurements were made: Kilauea was erupting, whereas Mt. Etna was quiescent although in a pre-eruptive stage. Unlike Mt. Etna, flank degassing on Kilauea is restricted to the tectonic and volcanic structures directly connected to the magma reservoir feeding the ongoing East Rift eruption or in areas of the Lower East Rift where other shallow, likely independent reservoirs are postulated. Anomalous soil degassing was also found in areas without surface evidence of faults, thus suggesting the possibility of previously unknown structures. Received: November 2003, revised: January 2005, accepted: January 2005     

Phylogeography of the rocky intertidal periwinkle Echinolittorina paytensis through a biogeographic transition zone in the Southeastern Pacific

Barriers to dispersal are recognized to play an important role in the differentiation of populations and ultimately in speciation. In the southeast Pacific, on the northern coast of Peru, a transition zone between the Peruvian and Panamic marine biogeographic provinces exists. Here, the convergence between two contrasting surface currents could generate a barrier effect for the larval dispersal of meroplanktonic invertebrates, which could in turn generate differentiated populations or genetic lineages on both sides of the transition zone. To address this, we studied to Echinolittorina paytensis, an abundant rocky intertidal periwinkle that spans both biogeographic provinces. A total of 95 individuals from Ecuador (2°19′S) to central Peru (7°31′S), covering the Panamic Province, the Peruvian Province, and the transition zone between, were collected. The mitochondrial markers cytochrome c oxidase I and 16SrRNA were sequenced in order to investigate phylogeography and genetic structuring. In general, no genetic structuring was found across the transition zone, suggesting this biogeographic boundary would not be acting as a barrier in this species. Factors such as a high larval dispersal capability and the occurrence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation events such as El Niño are discussed.     

Calibrating a rainfall erosivity assessment model at regional scale in Mediterranean area

A simplified regression model is here calibrated on the basis of rainfall data records of Sicily (southern Italy), in order to show the model reliability in assessing the R-factor of the Universal Soil Loss Equation and its revised version (RUSLE) and to provide an estimate of long-term rainfall erosivity at medium-regional scale. The proposed model is a rearrangement of a former simplified model, formulated for the Italian environment, grouping three easily available rainfall variables on various time scales, which has been shown to be more successful than others in reproducing the rainfall erosive power over different locations of Italy. A geostatistical interpolation procedure is then applied for generating the regional long-term erosivity map with associated standard error. Areas with severe erosive rainfalls (from 2,000 up to more than 6,000 MJ mm ha⁻¹ h⁻¹) are pointed out which will correspond to areas suffering from severe soil erosion. Solving the problem of calculating the R-factor value in the RUSLE equation by means of such a simplified model here formulated will allow to predict the related soil loss. Moreover, given the availability of long time-series of concerned rainfall data, it will be possible to analyse the variability of rainfall erosivity within the last 50 years, and to investigate the application of RUSLE or similar soil erosion models with forecasting purposes of soil erosion risk.     

Texture development and elastic stresses in magnesiowűstite at high pressure

Cubic magnesiowűstite has been deformed in a diamond anvil cell at room temperature. We present results for (Mg_0.4Fe_0.6)O, (Mg_0.25Fe_0.75)O, and (Mg_0.1Fe_0.9)O up to 37, 16, and 18 GPa, respectively. The diffraction images, obtained with the radial diffraction technique, are analyzed using both single peak intensities and a Rietveld method. For all samples, we observe a [100] fiber texture but the texture strength decreases with increasing iron content. This texture pattern is consistent with {110}〈1-10〉 slip. The images were also analyzed for stress, elastic strains, and elastic anisotropy. In general, the stress measured in magnesiowűstite samples is lower than previously measured on MgO. The elastic anisotropy deduced from the X-ray measurements shows a broad agreement with models based on measurements with other techniques.