Statistical Characteristics of Xenoliths in the Antioch Kimberlite Pipe,Marshall County,Northeastern Kansas

Geometrical characteristics of xenoliths in the Antioch kimberlite pipe have been considered in statistical terms. A method of conversion of 2D intersections to 3D dimensions was used. It has been shown that the Rosin-Rammler distribution of mass leads to the Weibull distribution of sizes, whereas a fractal distribution of sizes can be expressed as the Pareto distribution. Lognormal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions have been tested as model distributions. The Pareto distribution could be the most appropriate model for the distribution of xenoliths. This conclusion is in agreement with the general concept that the xenoliths formed as a result of an underground explosion without additional breakage occurring during magma transport. The final distribution may be shifted from the initial model as a result of processes of redistribution and sorting of xenoliths in liquid-crystalline flows.     

Debris flows triggered from non-stationary glacier lake outbursts: the case of the Teztor Lake complex (Northern Tian Shan,Kyrgyzstan)

One of the most far-reaching glacier-related hazards in the Tian Shan Mountains of Kyrgyzstan is glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and related debris flows. An improved understanding of the formation and evolution of glacial lakes and debris flow susceptibility is therefore essential to assess and mitigate potential hazards and risks. Non-stationary glacier lakes may fill periodically and quickly; the potential for them to outburst increases as water volume may change dramatically over very short periods of time. After the outburst or drainage of a lake, the entire process may start again, and thus these non-stationary lakes are of particular importance in the region. In this work, the Teztor lake complex, located in Northern Kyrgyzstan, was selected for the analysis of outburst mechanisms of non-stationary glacial lakes, their formation, as well as the triggering of flows and development of debris flows and floods downstream of the lakes. The different Teztor lakes are filled with water periodically, and according to field observations, they tend to outburst every 9–10 years on average. The most important event in the area dates back to 1953, and another important event occurred on July 31, 2012. Other smaller outbursts have been recorded as well. Our study shows that the recent GLOF in 2012 was caused by a combination of intense precipitation during the days preceding the event and a rapid rise in air temperatures. Analyses of features in the entrainment and depositional zones point to a total debris flow volume of about 200,000 m³, with discharge ranging from 145 to 340 m³ s^?1 and flow velocities between 5 and 7 m s^?1. Results of this study are key for a better design of sound river corridor planning and for the assessment and mitigation of potential GLOF hazards and risks in the region.     

Bayesian updating via bootstrap filtering combined with data-driven polynomial chaos expansions: methodology and application to history matching for carbon dioxide storage in geological formations

Model calibration and history matching are important techniques to adapt simulation tools to real-world systems. When prediction uncertainty needs to be quantified, one has to use the respective statistical counterparts, e.g., Bayesian updating of model parameters and data assimilation. For complex and large-scale systems, however, even single forward deterministic simulations may require parallel high-performance computing. This often makes accurate brute-force and nonlinear statistical approaches infeasible. We propose an advanced framework for parameter inference or history matching based on the arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion (aPC) and strict Bayesian principles. Our framework consists of two main steps. In step 1, the original model is projected onto a mathematically optimal response surface via the aPC technique. The resulting response surface can be viewed as a reduced (surrogate) model. It captures the model’s dependence on all parameters relevant for history matching at high-order accuracy. Step 2 consists of matching the reduced model from step 1 to observation data via bootstrap filtering. Bootstrap filtering is a fully nonlinear and Bayesian statistical approach to the inverse problem in history matching. It allows to quantify post-calibration parameter and prediction uncertainty and is more accurate than ensemble Kalman filtering or linearized methods. Through this combination, we obtain a statistical method for history matching that is accurate, yet has a computational speed that is more than sufficient to be developed towards real-time application. We motivate and demonstrate our method on the problem of CO₂ storage in geological formations, using a low-parametric homogeneous 3D benchmark problem. In a synthetic case study, we update the parameters of a CO₂/brine multiphase model on monitored pressure data during CO₂ injection.     

Carboniferous–Permian volcanic evolution in Central Europe—U/Pb ages of volcanic rocks in Saxony (Germany) and northern Bohemia (Czech Republic)

Nine SHRIMP U/Pb ages on zircon and two Pb/Pb single zircon ages have been determined from Late Paleozoic volcanic rocks from Saxony and northern Bohemia. Samples came from the Teplice-Altenberg Volcanic Complex, the Meissen Volcanic Complex, the Chemnitz Basin, the Döhlen Basin, the Brandov-Olbernhau Basin, and the North Saxon Volcanic Complex. The Teplice-Altenberg Volcanic Complex is subdivided into an early Namurian phase (Mikulov Ignimbrite, 326.8 ± 4.3 Ma), thus older than assumed by previous studies, and a late caldera-forming phase (Teplice Ignimbrite, 308.8 ± 4.9 Ma). The age of the latter, however, is not well constrained due to a large population of inherited zircon and possible hydrothermal overprint. The Leutewitz Ignimbrite, product of an early explosive volcanic episode of the Meissen Volcanic Complex yielded an age of 302.9 ± 2.5 Ma (Stephanian A). Volcanic rocks intercalated in the Brandov-Olbernhau Basin (BOB, 302 ± 2.8 Ma), Chemnitz Basin (CB, 296.6 ± 3.0 Ma), Döhlen Basin (DB, 296 ± 3.0 Ma), and the North Saxon Volcanic Complex (NSVC, c. 300–290 Ma) yielded well-constrained Stephanian to Sakmarian ages. The largest Late Paleozoic ignimbrite-forming eruption in Central Europe, the Rochlitz Ignimbrite, has a well-defined middle Asselian age of 294.4 ± 1.8 Ma. Ages of palingenic zircon revealed that the Namurian-Westphalian magmatism assimilated larger amounts of crystalline basement that formed during previous Paleozoic geodynamic phases. The Precambrian inherited ages support the chronostratigraphic structure assumed for the Saxo-Thuringian Zone of the Variscan Orogen. The present results help to improve the chronostratigraphic allocation of the Late Paleozoic volcanic zones in Central Europe. At the same time, the radiometric ages have implications for the interbasinal correlation and for the geodynamic evolution of the Variscan Orogeny.     

Comment on: “Origin, timing, and temperature of secondary calcite-silica mineral formation at Yucca Mountain, Nevada” by N. S. F. Wilson, J. S. Cline, and Y. V. Amelin

Yucca Mountain in southern Nevada is being evaluated as a potential site for the geological disposal of high-level nuclear waste. A reliable assessment of the future performance of the repository will require detailed paleohydrogeological information. Hydrogenic secondary minerals from the vadose zone of Yucca Mountain are being studied as paleohydrogeological indicators. A phenomenological model envisaging the deposition of secondary minerals by meteoric fluids infiltrating downward though the vadose zone was proposed in the reviewed paper. Our evaluation reveals that the model is not supported by empiric evidence reported in the paper.     

Permo-Triassic hypabyssal mafic intrusions and associated tholeiitic basalts of the Kolyuchinskaya Bay,Chukotka (NE Russia): Links to the Siberian LIP

In order to test tectonic hypotheses regarding the evolution of the Arctic Alaska–Chukotka microplate prior to the opening of the Amerasian basin, we investigated rocks exposed near Kolyuchinskaya Bay, eastern Chukotka. Hypabyssal mafic rocks and associated basaltic flows enclose terrigenous sediments, minor cherts and limestones in pillow interstices. The hypabyssal mafic rock yields a U–Pb zircon age of 252 ± 4 Ma and indicates intrusion of basic magma at the Permo-Triassic boundary, contemporaneous with voluminous magmatism of the Siberian large igneous province (LIP). The lava flows and hypabyssal mafic rocks of the Kolyuchinskaya Bay region have trace elements, Sm–Nd and Rb–Sr isotope compositions identical to the tholeiitic flood basalts of the main plateau stage of the Siberian LIP, but differ from the latter in the major-element variations. We conclude that compositional variations in the hypabyssal rocks studied reflect their generation in an extensional environment that might be related to the Siberian super-plume activity at the time. Although the genetic and temporal links between intrusive mafic rocks and lavas are not well proved, compositional variations of the eruptive rocks still indicate their generation in an extensional environment.     

日本海末次冰期以来沉积作用和环境演化及其控制要素

基于对日本海南部、中部和西部3个沉积岩芯的综合研究,探讨了末次冰期以来日本海不同区域的沉积作用、环境演化特征及其控制因素。结果发现：在距今8ka以前,日本海南部、中部和西部陆源碎屑物质分别由河流物质、西风携带的风尘物质和海冰输运的物质组成;8ka以来日本海西部沉积物中存在连续分布的火山物质,推测与利曼寒流形成有关,标志着现代日本海表层环流格局的形成。在末次冰期,日本海中部和南部因为水体层化较强,导致底层水通风较弱,而日本海西部则由于盐析作用,通风较强。在冰消期早期,随着海平面上升,东海北部高盐水团再次入侵日本海,改善了日本海深层水体通风条件,但在日本海西部因受到常年海冰覆盖的影响,沉积物氧含量显著减小;在冰消期晚期和早全新世,日本海南部深层水体通风减弱,而在日本海中部和西部通风较好;但8ka以来日本海通风普遍增强。日本海的沉积作用和环境演化受海平面、东亚季风(西风环流)和对马暖流控制,但不同海域对上述3个因子的响应程度存在差异。海平面变化是控制日本海环境变化的首要因子,它直接制约着日本海与周围水体的交换程度;东亚夏季风影响日本海表层水体层化,而东亚冬季风则控制着日本海西部海冰的形成和深层水体垂向对流;8ka以来对马暖流成为控制日本海环境演化的重要因子,它的入侵增强了表层和底层水体交换,提高了日本海深层水体和沉积物溶解氧的更新速率。     

Seasonal and Annual Fluxes of Nutrients and Organic Matter from Large Rivers to the Arctic Ocean and Surrounding Seas

River inputs of nutrients and organic matter impact the biogeochemistry of arctic estuaries and the Arctic Ocean as a whole, yet there is considerable uncertainty about the magnitude of fluvial fluxes at the pan-Arctic scale. Samples from the six largest arctic rivers, with a combined watershed area of 11.3?×?10⁶?km², have revealed strong seasonal variations in constituent concentrations and fluxes within rivers as well as large differences among the rivers. Specifically, we investigate fluxes of dissolved organic carbon, dissolved organic nitrogen, total dissolved phosphorus, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, nitrate, and silica. This is the first time that seasonal and annual constituent fluxes have been determined using consistent sampling and analytical methods at the pan-Arctic scale and consequently provide the best available estimates for constituent flux from land to the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. Given the large inputs of river water to the relatively small Arctic Ocean and the dramatic impacts that climate change is having in the Arctic, it is particularly urgent that we establish the contemporary river fluxes so that we will be able to detect future changes and evaluate the impact of the changes on the biogeochemistry of the receiving coastal and ocean systems.     

Terrane analysis and accretion in North-East Asia

Abstract A terrane map of North-East Asia at 1:5 000 000 scale has been compiled. The map shows terranes of different types and ages accreted to the North-Asian craton in the Mesozoic–Cenozoic, sub-and superterranes, together with post-amalgamation and post-accretion assemblages. The great Kolyma-Omolon superterrane adjoins the north-east craton margin. It is composed of large angular terranes of continental affinity: craton fragments and fragments of the passive continental margin of Siberia, and island arc, oceanic and turbidite terranes that are unconformably overlain by shallow marine Middle-Upper Jurassic deposits. The superterrane resulted from a long subduction of the Paleo-Pacific oceanic crust beneath the Alazeya arc. Its south-west boundary is defined by the Late Jurassic Uyandina-Yasachnaya marginal volcanic arc which was brought about by subduction of the oceanic crust that separated the superterrane from Siberia. According to paleomagnetic evidence the width of the basin is estimated to be 1500–2000 km. Accretion of the superterrane to Siberia is dated to the late Late Jurassic-Neocomian. The north-east superterrane boundary is defined by the Lyakhov-South Anyui suture which extends across southern Chukotka up to Alaska. Collision of the superterrane with the Chukotka shelf terrane is dated to the middle of the Cretaceous. The Okhotsk-Chukotka belt, composed of Albian-Late Cretaceous undeformed continental volcan-ites, defines the Cretaceous margin of North Asia. Terranes eastward of the belt are mainly of oceanic affinity: island arc upon oceanic crust, accretion wedge and turbidite terranes, as well as cratonic terranes and fragments of magmatic arcs on the continental crust and metamorphic terranes of unclear origin and age. The time of their accretion is constrained by post-accretionary volcanic belts that extend parallel to the Okhotsk-Chukotka belt but are displaced to the east: the Maastrichtian-Miocene Kamchatka-Koryak belt and the Eocene-Quaternary Central Kamchatka belt which mark active margins of the continent of corresponding ages.     

Toward integrated assessment of environmental change: air pollution health effects in the USA

We demonstrate a method for integrating environmental effects into a computable general equilibrium model. This is a critical step forward toward the development of improved integrated assessment models of environmental change. We apply the method to examine the economic consequences of air pollution on human health for the US for the period from 1970 to 2000. The pollutants include tropospheric ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and particulate matter. We apply this method to the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the economy that has been widely used to study climate change policy. The method makes use of traditional valuation studies, incorporating this information so that estimates of welfare change are consistent with welfare valuation of the consumption of market goods and services. We estimate the benefits of air pollution regulations in USA rose steadily from 1975 to 2000 from $50 billion to $400 billion (from 2.1% to 7.6% of market consumption). Our estimated benefits of regulation are somewhat lower than the original estimates made by the US Environmental Protection Agency, and we trace that result to our development of a stock model of pollutant exposure that predicts that the benefits from reduced chronic air pollution exposure will only be gradually realized. We also estimate the economic burden of uncontrolled levels of air pollution over that period. The uncertainties in these estimates are large which we show through simulations using 95% confidence limits on the epidemiological dose-response relationships