Classification issues within ensemble-based simulation: application to surge floods forecasting

The paper proposes a high-level conceptual and technological approach to manage the ensemble-based simulation, taking into account changing states of both simulated system and system of models. The approach includes systematization of ensemble-based modeling and simulation techniques, analysis of simulation results, quality assessments, and detailed analysis of ensemble management procedures using classification operators. The technological basis for such an approach includes ensemble-based simulation techniques using domain-specific software combined within a composite application; data science approaches for analysis of available datasets (simulation data, observations, situation assessments, etc.). Within this work, a set of case studies is addressed to examine the opportunities provided by the developed approach considering ensemble-based simulation of storm surges for flood prediction in St. Petersburg, Russia as an example.     

Mesoscale circulation along the Sakhalin Island eastern coast

The seasonal and interannual variability of mesoscale circulation along the eastern coast of the Sakhalin Island in the Okhotsk Sea is investigated using the AVISO velocity field and oceanographic data for the period from 1993 to 2016. It is found that mesoscale cyclones with the horizontal dimension of about 100 km occur there predominantly during summer, whereas anticyclones occur predominantly during fall and winter. The cyclones are generated due to a coastal upwelling forced by northward winds and the positive wind stress curl along the Sakhalin coast. The anticyclones are formed due to an inflow of low-salinity Amur River waters from the Sakhalin Gulf intensified by southward winds and the negative wind stress curl in the cold season. The mesoscale cyclones support the high biological productivity at the eastern Sakhalin shelf in July– August.     

Effective Rigidity of a Polar Neutron Monitor for Recording Ground-Level Enhancements

The “effective” rigidity of a neutron monitor for a ground-level enhancement (GLE) event is defined so that the event-integrated fluence of solar energetic protons with rigidity above it is directly proportional to the integral intensity of the GLE as recorded by a polar neutron monitor, within a wide range of solar energetic-proton spectra. This provides a direct way to assess the integral fluence of a GLE event based solely on neutron-monitor data. The effective rigidity/energy was found to be 1.13?–?1.42 GV (550?–?800 MeV). A small model-dependent, systematic uncertainty in the value of the effective rigidity is caused by uncertainties in the low-energy range of the neutron-monitor yield function, which requires more detailed computations of the latter.     

Shallow groundwater dynamics and its driving forces in extremely arid areas: a case study of the lower Heihe River in northwestern China

Shallow groundwater is an important source of water for the maintenance and restoration of ecosystems in arid environments, which necessitates a deeper understanding of its complex spatial and temporal dynamics driven by hydrological processes. This study explores the dominant hydrological processes that control the shallow groundwater dynamics in the Gobi Desert‐riparian‐oasis system of the lower Heihe River, a typical arid inland river basin located in northwestern China. The groundwater level and temperature were monitored in 14 shallow wells at 30‐min intervals during the 2010–2012 period. After combining this information with meteorological and hydrological data, a comprehensive analysis was conducted to understand the dynamic behaviour of the shallow groundwater system and to determine the dominant factors that control the groundwater flow processes. The results of the study indicate notably large temporal and spatial variations in both the groundwater level and temperature. Noticeable fluctuations in the groundwater level (0.5–1 m) and temperature (4–8 °C) were observed in the riparian zone, evidencing a clear river influence. In comparison, the groundwater fluctuations in the Gobi Desert were more stable (the annual variations of the water table were less than 0.5 m, and the water temperature varied by no more than 2 °C). Strong variations in the groundwater table (1.5–5.0 m/year) and temperature (1.5–6.5 °C), mainly caused by surface flood irrigation and groundwater pumping, were observed in the oasis area. The investigated sites were categorized into three types that reflect the dominant hydrological processes: (1) the riparian zone, dominated by riverbank filtration and groundwater evapotranspiration; (2) the Gobi Desert area, controlled by groundwater evaporation and lateral recharge; and (3) the oasis area, dominated by groundwater evapotranspiration as well as surface–groundwater interactions caused by human activities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New exact cosmologies on the brane

We develop a method for constructing exact cosmological solutions in brane world cosmology. New classes of cosmological solutions on Randall–Sandrum brane are obtained. The superpotential and Hubble parameter are represented in quadratures. These solutions have inflationary phases under general assumptions and also describe an exit from the inflationary phase without a fine tuning of the parameters. Another class solutions can describe the current phase of accelerated expansion with or without possible exit from it.     

A 96-antenna radioheliograph

Here we briefly present some design approaches for a multifrequency 96-antenna radioheliograph. The configuration of the array antenna, transmission lines and digital receivers is the main focus of this work. The radioheliograph is a T-shaped centrally condensed radiointerferometer operating in the frequency range 4–8 GHz.The justification for the choice of such a configuration is discussed. The signals from antennas are transmitted to a workroom by analog optical links. The dynamic range and phase errors of the microwave-over-optical signal are considered. The signals after downconverting are processed by digital receivers for delay tracking and fringe stopping. The required step of delay tracking and data rates are considered. Two 3-bit data streams(I and Q) are transmitted to a correlator with the transceivers embedded in Field Programmed Gate Array chips and with PCI Express cables.     

Polarimetry and Photometry of Comet C/2004 Q2 (Machholz)

We present results of polarimetry and photometry of comet C/2004 Q2 (Machholz) obtained with the 0.7-m telescope of Institute of Astronomy at the Karazin Kharkiv National University on February 3 and 4, and March 4 and 14, 2005. The observations were carried out with a one-channel photoelectric photometer-polarimeter. The IHW continuum UC (λ3650/80 Å), BC (λ4845/65 Å), RC (λ6840/90 Å) and emission filters CN (λ3871/50 Å), C₃ (λ4060/70 Å), and C2 (λ5140/90 Å) were used. Degree of the comet polarization at phase angles ≈ 52° and ≈44° in the red continuum was close to that for so called dusty comets. The comet had a typical spectral gradient of polarization ΔP/Δλ=0.86% per 1000 Å. In the framework of the Haser model we have found the gas production rates Q of the CN, C₃ and C₂ species and the dust production rates Afρ on February 4 and March 14, 2005. The ratio log[Afρ (BC)/Q(CN)] was compared with data for other comets. The normalized spectral gradient of cometary dust S’(BC,RC) was 8.7%/1000 Å for February 4 and 17.0%/1000 Å for March 14. We conclude that comet C/2004 Q2 (Machholz) in many respects is a typical dusty comet.     

Wolf-rayet stars as (potentially) fast rotators with rotationally-induced instability

Indirect lines of evidence for fast axial rotation of WR stars are described, such as: a) elongated cavities around WRs; b) flattening of WR winds; c) solar-like flares of WRs; d) non-radial pulsations of the WR wind in the presence of a massive companion in a binary system.     

Pulsating magneto-dipole radiation of a quaking neutron star powered by energy of Alfvn seismic vibrations

We compute the characteristic parameters of the magneto-dipole radiation of a neutron star undergoing torsional seismic vibrations under the action of Lorentz restoring force about an axis of a dipolar magnetic field experiencing decay.After a brief outline of the general theoretical background of the model of a vibration-powered neutron star,we present numerical estimates of basic vibration and radiation characteristics,such as frequency,lifetime and luminosity,and investigate their time dependence on magn...     

Correction to: Characteristics of topographic submesoscale eddies off the Crimea coast from high-resolution satellite optical measurements

Ocean Dynamics - A Correction to this paper has been published: https: doi.org/10.1007/s10236-021-01463-y