Time Evolution of Deformation Using Time Series of Differential Interferograms: Application to La Palma Island (Canary Islands)

Differential interferometry is a very powerful tool for detecting changes in the Earth’s crust where coherence conditions are good, but is difficult to employ in some volcanic areas due to dense vegetation. We apply two differential InSAR methods using the time series associated with the interferograms to perform a phase analysis on a data set for La Palma island (Canary Islands) from the ERS-1 and ERS-2 European Space Agency (ESA) satellites for the time period 1992 to 2000. Both methods involve choosing a master image from the database and creating a series of interferograms with respect to this image. The “Coherent Pixel Time Series” (CPTS) technique chooses pixels with good average coherence, aligns the unwrapped interferograms with a stable area and then performs an inversion to calculate the linear velocity to quantify the deformation. The Coherent Target Modeling (CTM) method calculates the temporal coherence of each pixel to identify stable targets and then determines the best velocity for each pixel by using a linear fit that maximizes the temporal coherence. Using these two methods we have been able to detect deformation on La Palma Island that has been previously undetectable by conventional InSAR methods. There is a roughly circular region on the Southern part of the island that is actively deforming at ~ −4 to −8 mm/yr. This region is located near the Teneguia valcano, the host of the last known eruption on La Palma in 1971. A thorough investigation of the possible sources for this deformation revealed that it was most likely created by a subsurface thermal source.     

Improved statistical prediction of surface currents based on historic HF-radar observations

Accurate short-term prediction of surface currents can improve the efficiency of search-and-rescue operations, oil-spill response, and marine operations. We developed a linear statistical model for predicting surface currents (up to 48?h in the future) based on a short time history of past HF-radar observations (past 48?h) and an optional forecast of surface winds. Our model used empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) to capture spatial correlations in the HF-radar data and used a linear autoregression model to predict the temporal dynamics of the EOF coefficients. We tested the developed statistical model using historical observations of surface currents in Monterey Bay, California. The predicted particle trajectories separated from particles advected with HF-radar data at a rate of 4.4?km/day. The developed model was more accurate than an existing statistical model (drifter separation of 5.5?km/day) and a circulation model (drifter separation of 8.9?km/day). When the wind forecast was not available, the accuracy of our model degraded slightly (drifter separation of 4.9?km/day), but was still better than existing models. We found that the minimal length of the HF-radar data required to train an accurate statistical model was between 1 and 2?years, depending on the accuracy desired. Our evaluation showed that the developed model is accurate, is easier to implement and maintain than existing statistical and circulation models, and can be relocated to other coastal systems of similar complexity that have a sufficient history of HF-radar observations.     

Computer Expert System for Epithermal Gold-Silver Deposit Prognostication (Okhotsk–Chuckchee Volcanic Belt,Northeast Russia)

The Okhotsk–Chuckchee volcanic belt (OCVB) represents a world class gold–silver province, being a well-studied part of the Circum-Pacific Rim. Extensive research, preceding the system compilation, included collection of various data on major gold–silver, silver–lead–zinc, and tin–silver ore fields (with some data on minor gold–quartz, gold–sulfide, and gold–rare-metal sites). The database consists of 129 ore fields of the OCVB and comprises 433 geological, mineralogical, geochemical, and geophysical indicators. Using the original pattern recognition programs (accounting the frequencies and correlation of the indicators), the most informative indicators were selected, their weights (both positive and negative) were identified, and an expert system (solution tree) was compiled. The computer system is intended to be an assistance to an expert in the ore field potential evaluation. The system includes several blocks of questions with a goal of classifying the geochemical type and size of the analyzed ore field. The questions have an indirect character, so they could be answered by an expert at early stages of exploration (before drilling). The level of recognition of sizes of the ore sites in the control populations is 95% or higher. The aim of the expert system is to reestimate a large number of known ore sites in a relatively brief period of time with the aid of the personal computer. The revealed patterns could be used in other less studied parts of the Circum-Pacific belt.     

Bayesian updating via bootstrap filtering combined with data-driven polynomial chaos expansions: methodology and application to history matching for carbon dioxide storage in geological formations

Model calibration and history matching are important techniques to adapt simulation tools to real-world systems. When prediction uncertainty needs to be quantified, one has to use the respective statistical counterparts, e.g., Bayesian updating of model parameters and data assimilation. For complex and large-scale systems, however, even single forward deterministic simulations may require parallel high-performance computing. This often makes accurate brute-force and nonlinear statistical approaches infeasible. We propose an advanced framework for parameter inference or history matching based on the arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion (aPC) and strict Bayesian principles. Our framework consists of two main steps. In step 1, the original model is projected onto a mathematically optimal response surface via the aPC technique. The resulting response surface can be viewed as a reduced (surrogate) model. It captures the model’s dependence on all parameters relevant for history matching at high-order accuracy. Step 2 consists of matching the reduced model from step 1 to observation data via bootstrap filtering. Bootstrap filtering is a fully nonlinear and Bayesian statistical approach to the inverse problem in history matching. It allows to quantify post-calibration parameter and prediction uncertainty and is more accurate than ensemble Kalman filtering or linearized methods. Through this combination, we obtain a statistical method for history matching that is accurate, yet has a computational speed that is more than sufficient to be developed towards real-time application. We motivate and demonstrate our method on the problem of CO₂ storage in geological formations, using a low-parametric homogeneous 3D benchmark problem. In a synthetic case study, we update the parameters of a CO₂/brine multiphase model on monitored pressure data during CO₂ injection.     

Seasonal and Annual Fluxes of Nutrients and Organic Matter from Large Rivers to the Arctic Ocean and Surrounding Seas

River inputs of nutrients and organic matter impact the biogeochemistry of arctic estuaries and the Arctic Ocean as a whole, yet there is considerable uncertainty about the magnitude of fluvial fluxes at the pan-Arctic scale. Samples from the six largest arctic rivers, with a combined watershed area of 11.3?×?10⁶?km², have revealed strong seasonal variations in constituent concentrations and fluxes within rivers as well as large differences among the rivers. Specifically, we investigate fluxes of dissolved organic carbon, dissolved organic nitrogen, total dissolved phosphorus, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, nitrate, and silica. This is the first time that seasonal and annual constituent fluxes have been determined using consistent sampling and analytical methods at the pan-Arctic scale and consequently provide the best available estimates for constituent flux from land to the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. Given the large inputs of river water to the relatively small Arctic Ocean and the dramatic impacts that climate change is having in the Arctic, it is particularly urgent that we establish the contemporary river fluxes so that we will be able to detect future changes and evaluate the impact of the changes on the biogeochemistry of the receiving coastal and ocean systems.     

The Deposition and Chronology of Cenote T’isil: A Multiproxy Study of Human/Environment Interaction in the Northern Maya Lowlands of Southeast Mexico

Cenotes (natural wells or sinkholes) comprise the most common landscape features in the northern Maya Lowlands of the Yucatán Peninsula, México. Detailed study of dated soil‐sedimentary sequences, recovered from a cenote at the archaeological site T’isil and nearby wetlands, allows a partial reconstruction of environmental variability at the site for the last 2000 years. Biogenic calcite sedimentation and Calcisol development occur during three intervals of increased inundation in cenote and wetland environments, ca. A.D. 300, A.D. 1000, and A.D. 1300. Periods of increased inundation in the cenote and wetlands correlate with wetter climatic intervals, and periods of Maya occupation at sites in the Yalahau region. Evidence for Maya modification of the cenote environment may relate to regional wetland agricultural practices.     

Mesoscale and Nutrient Conditions Associated with the Massive 2008 Cochlodinium polykrikoides Bloom in the Sea of Oman/Arabian Gulf

Cochlodinium polykrikoides formed large blooms in the coastal waters of Oman from October 2008 through mid-January 2009, and satellite images from Aqua-MODIS and region-wide reports suggest that this bloom was found throughout the Arabian Gulf and Sea of Oman for more than 10 months. The unusual occurrence of this species appears to have supplanted the more regularly occurring bloom species, Noctiluca scintillans, in 2008–2009. For the first 2 weeks of the coastal Omani bloom, C. polykrikoides abundance was near monospecific proportions, with cell densities ranging from 4.6?×?10³ to 9?×?10⁶ cells L^?1 and very high levels of chlorophyll a (78.0 μg L^?1) were also recorded. The regional progression of the bloom likely began with stronger than normal upwelling along the Iranian and northern Omani coasts during the southwest monsoon in late summer, followed by discharge of unusually warm coastal plume water along the coast of Oman with the reversal of monsoonal winds in late October. The occurrence and persistence of high densities of C. polykrikoides in Oman coastal water were also significantly influenced by an elevated nutrient load and warmer than normal temperatures. Concentrations of nutrients, especially NH₄ ⁺, urea, PO₄ ^3?, and organic nitrogen and phosphorus, were manyfold higher than observed in the year prior or since. These findings suggest that mesoscale features were important in bloom dynamics more regionally, but locally the bloom was sustained by nutrient enrichment supplemented by its mixotrophic capabilities.     

polarimetric and photometric observations of split comet C/2001 A2 (LINEAR)

We present the results of polarimetric and photometricobservations of split Comet C/2001 A2 (LINEAR), which wereobtained at the 70-cm telescope of the Astronomical Observatoryof Kharkiv National University between 30 June and 31 July 2001.The brightest fragment of the comet, nucleus B, was observed.Eight narrowband cometary filters in the continuum and in emissionbands and a wideband red filter have been used. The comet wasobserved through apertures of 88, 33, and 19 arcsec. Polarizationphase curves were obtained for the continuum and for the firsttime, for NH₂(0, 7, 0) emission. The degree of polarization ofthe light scattered by the dust decreases with the increase ofaperture size. An important temporal variation of the polarizationwith a rotation of the polarization plane was observed at twophase angles (26.5° and 36.2°). Molecular column densities and production rates of CN, C₂,C₃, and NH₂ species are calculated in the framework of theHaser model. A comparative analysis of the temporal variations ofthe visual magnitudes, gas and dust production rates, dust colorand polarization are presented.     

Permo-Triassic hypabyssal mafic intrusions and associated tholeiitic basalts of the Kolyuchinskaya Bay,Chukotka (NE Russia): Links to the Siberian LIP

In order to test tectonic hypotheses regarding the evolution of the Arctic Alaska–Chukotka microplate prior to the opening of the Amerasian basin, we investigated rocks exposed near Kolyuchinskaya Bay, eastern Chukotka. Hypabyssal mafic rocks and associated basaltic flows enclose terrigenous sediments, minor cherts and limestones in pillow interstices. The hypabyssal mafic rock yields a U–Pb zircon age of 252 ± 4 Ma and indicates intrusion of basic magma at the Permo-Triassic boundary, contemporaneous with voluminous magmatism of the Siberian large igneous province (LIP). The lava flows and hypabyssal mafic rocks of the Kolyuchinskaya Bay region have trace elements, Sm–Nd and Rb–Sr isotope compositions identical to the tholeiitic flood basalts of the main plateau stage of the Siberian LIP, but differ from the latter in the major-element variations. We conclude that compositional variations in the hypabyssal rocks studied reflect their generation in an extensional environment that might be related to the Siberian super-plume activity at the time. Although the genetic and temporal links between intrusive mafic rocks and lavas are not well proved, compositional variations of the eruptive rocks still indicate their generation in an extensional environment.