Species sensitivity distributions: data and model choice

Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) are increasingly incorporated into ecological risk assessment procedures. Although these new techniques offer a more transparent approach to risk assessment they demand more and superior quality data. Issues of data quantity and quality are especially important for marine datasets that tend to be smaller (and have fewer standard test methods) when compared with freshwater data. An additional source of uncertainty when using SSDs is appropriate selection from the range of methods used in their construction. We show through examples the influence of data quantity, data quality, and choice of model. We then show how regulatory decisions may be affected by these factors.     

The null distribution of sample serial correlation coefficient

 The null distribution of the lag-k sample serial correlation coefficient (r _k , k=1,2,3) was investigated by Monte Carlo simulation. For a time series with normal, exponential, Pearson 3, EV1 (Gumbel), or generalized Pareto (GP) distribution type, the null distribution of its r _k can be approximated by the normal distribution with mean −1/(n−k) and variance 1/(n−1). But for a time series with the lognormal, EV2 or EV3 (Weibull) distribution type, the null distribution of r _k is skewed distributed. In such cases, a simulation technique is suggested to construct percentile confidence intervals at a given significance level.     

Electrical conductivity of some rocks from the Indian subcontinent

Summary Results on electrical conductivity, chemical analysis and age of the rock samples from the Indian Subcontinent are presented. The old Precambrian Indian rocks tend to be less conductive than characteristic rocks of crustal and upper mantle structures.

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Grim4-C1, -C2p: combination solutions of the global earth gravity field

On the basis of the GRIM4-S1 satellite-only Earth gravity model, being accomplished in a common effort by DGFI and GRGS, a combination solution, called GRIM4-C1, has been derivcd using 1° × 1° mean gravity anomalies and 1° × 1° Seasat altimeter derived mean geoid undulations. In the meantime improvements could be achieved by incorporating more tracking data (GEOSAT, SPOT2-DORIS) into the solution, resulting in the two new parallel versions, the satellite-only gravity model GRIM4-S2 and the combined solution GRIM4-C2p (preliminary). All GRIM4 Earth gravity models cover the spectral gravitational constituents complete up to degree and order 50.In this report the emphasis is on the discussion of the combined gravity models: combination and estimation techniques, capabilities for application in precise satellite orbit computation and accuracies in long wavelength geoid representation. It is shown that with the new generation of global gravity models general purpose satellite-only models are no longer inferior to combination solutions if applied to satellite orbit restitution.     

A unified formulation of the piecewise exact method for inelastic seismic demand analysis including the P‐delta effect

The non‐linear analysis of single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) systems provides the essential background information for both strength‐based design and displacement‐based evaluation/design methodologies through the development of the inelastic response spectra. The recursive solution procedure called the piecewise exact method, which is efficiently used for the response analysis of linear SDOF systems, is re‐formulated in this paper in a unified format to analyse the non‐linear SDOF systems with multi‐linear hysteresis models. The unified formulation is also capable of handling the P‐delta effect, which generally involves the negative post‐yield stiffness of the hysteresis loops. The attractiveness of the method lies in the fact that it provides the exact solution when the loading time history is composed of piecewise linear segments, a condition that is perfectly satisfied for the earthquake excitation. Based on simple recursive relationships given for positive, negative and zero effective stiffnesses, the unified form of the piecewise exact method proves to be an extremely powerful and probably the best tool for the SDOF inelastic time‐history and response spectrum analysis including the P‐delta effect. A number of examples are presented to demonstrate the implementation of the method. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Permeability-porosity Relationships in Rocks Subjected to Various Evolution Processes

— It is well known that there is no “universal” permeability-porosity relationship valid in all porous media. However, the evolution of permeability and porosity in rocks can be constrained provided that the processes changing the pore space are known. In this paper, we review observations of the relationship between permeability and porosity during rock evolution and interpret them in terms of creation/destruction of effectively and non-effectively conducting pore space. We focus on laboratory processes, namely, plastic compaction of aggregates, elastic-brittle deformation of granular rocks, dilatant and thermal microcracking of dense rocks, chemically driven processes, as a way to approach naturally occurring geological processes. In particular, the chemically driven processes and their corresponding evolution permeability-porosity relationships are discussed in relation to sedimentary rocks diagenesis.     

Characterisation of the 1997 Vulcanian explosions of Soufrière Hills Volcano,Montserrat, by video analysis

The activity of Convention at Montserrat Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, during the period 1995–1999 included numerous violent explosions. Two major cycles of Vulcanian explosions occurred in 1997: a first of 13 explosions between 4 and 12 August and a second of 75 between 22 September and 21 October. The explosions were short-lived events lasting a few tens of seconds during which partial fountain collapse generated pyroclastic surges and pyroclastic flows, and buoyant plumes ascended 3–15 km into the atmosphere. Each explosion discharged on average 3×10⁵ m³ (dense-rock equivalent, DRE) of magma, draining the conduit to depths of 1–2 km. The paper focuses on the first few seconds of three explosions of the 75 that occurred in September/October 1997: 6 October 1997 at 17:50, 7 October 1997 at 16:02 and 9 October 1997 at 12:32. Physical parameters such as exit velocities, magmatic water contents and magma pressures at fragmentation are estimated by following and modelling the ascent of individual momentum-dominated finger jets visible on videos during the initial stages of each explosion. The model treats each finger jet as an incompressible flow sustained by a steady flux of gas and particles during the few seconds of ascent, and produces results that compare favourably with those using a multiphase compressible code run using similar eruptive parameters. Each explosion reveals a progressive increase in eruptive intensity with time, jet exit velocities increasing from 40 m s^–1 at the beginning of the explosion up to 140 m s^–1 after a few seconds. Modelling suggests that the first magma to exit was largely degassed, whereas that discharged after a few seconds contained up to 2 wt% water. Magma overpressures up to ~10 MPa are estimated to have existed in the conduit immediately prior to each explosion. Progressive increases in jet exit velocity with time over the first few seconds of each explosion provide direct evidence for strong pre-eruptive gradients in water content and magma pressure in the upper reaches (probably 100–500 m) of the conduit. Fountain collapse occurred during the first 10–20 s of each explosion because the discharging jets had bulk densities up to 100 times that of the atmosphere and were unable to entrain enough air to become buoyant. Such high eruptive densities were due to the presence of partially degassed magma in the conduit.Editorial responsibility: A. Woods