Identification of uncertainty in low flow frequency analysis using Bayesian MCMC method

This study employs the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) using a quadratic approximation of the likelihood function for the evaluation of uncertainties in low flow frequency analysis using a two‐parameter Weibull distribution. The two types of prior distributions, a non‐data‐based distribution and a data‐based distribution using regional information collected from neighbouring stations, are used to establish a posterior distribution. Eight case studies using the synthetic data with a sample size of 100, generated from two‐parameter Weibull distribution, are performed to compare with results of analysis using MLE and Bayesian MCMC. Also, Bayesian MCMC and MLE are applied to 36 years of gauged data to validate the efficiency of the developed scheme. These examples illustrate the advantages of Bayesian MCMC and the limitations of MLE based on a quadratic approximation. From the point of view of uncertainty analysis, Bayesian MCMC is more effective than MLE using a quadratic approximation when the sample size is small. In particular, Bayesian MCMC method is more attractive than MLE based on a quadratic approximation because the sample size of low flow at the site of interest is mostly not enough to perform the low flow frequency analysis. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Perfluorinated compounds in estuarine and coastal areas of north Bohai Sea, China

Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) in water, sediment, soil, and biota collected from estuarine and coastal areas of the north Bohai Sea, China, were determined by use of HPLC-MS/MS. Significant concentrations of PFCs were found in water (mean: 18.4 ng/l) and biologic samples (fish: 265 ng/g dw), while concentrations of PFCs in soils and sediments were less. The predominately detected compound was perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS), with a maximum concentration of 30.9 ng/l in water and 791 ng/g dw in fish. Concentrations of PFCs were significantly greater in the Liaohe River system than other locations, which suggests point sources in this urbanized and industrialized region. PFOS concentrations in water and biota were both less than the reported threshold concentrations. Detection of PFCs at relatively great concentrations in various environmental matrices from this region suggested that further studies characterizing concentrations of PFCs, their sources and potential risk to both humans and wildlife are needed.     

Molecular characterization and morphology of the photosynthetic dinoflagellate Bysmatrum caponii from two solar saltons in western Korea

Species belonging to the genus Bysmatrum are peridinoid, thecate, photosynthetic dinoflagellates. The plate formula of Bysmatrum spp., arranged in a Kofoidian series, is almost identical to that of Scrippsiella spp. Bysmatrum spp., which were originally classified as Scrippsiella spp., but were transferred to the genus Bysmatrum spp. because of separation of the intercalary plates 2a and 3a by plate 3??. Whether this transfer from Scrippsiella spp. to Bysmatrum spp. is reasonable should be genetically confirmed. Dinoflagellates were isolated from 2 solar saltons located in western Korea in 2009?C2010 and 3 clonal cultures from Sooseong solar saltons and 2 clonal cultures from Garolim solar saltons were successfully established. All of these dinoflagellates were identified as Bysmatrum caponii based on morphology analysis by light and electron microscopy. The plates of all Korean strains of B. caponii were arranged in a Kofoidian series of Po, X, 4??, 3a, 7??, 6c, 4s, 5?, 0 (p), and 24??. When properly aligned, the ribosomal DNA (rDNA) sequences of the 3 Sooseong strains of B. caponii were identical, as were those of the 2 Garolim strains. Furthermore, the sequences of the 3 Sooseong strains were 0.01% different from those of the Garolim strains. However, the sequences of SSU rDNA of these Korean B. caponii strains were 9% different from that of Bysmatrum subsalsum and > 10% from that of any other dinoflagellate thus far reported. In the phylogenetic trees generated using SSU and LSU rDNA sequences, these Korean B. caponii strains formed a clade with B. subsalsum which was clearly divergent from the Scrippsiella clade. However, this Bysmatrum clade was phylogenetically close to the Protoperidinium and/or Peridinium clades. The results of the present study suggest that Bysmatrum spp. are markedly different genetically from Scrippsiella spp..     

Earthquake‐induced loss assessment of steel frame buildings with special moment frames designed in highly seismic regions

This paper discusses an analytical study that quantifies the expected earthquake‐induced losses in typical office steel frame buildings designed with perimeter special moment frames in highly seismic regions. It is shown that for seismic events associated with low probabilities of occurrence, losses due to demolition and collapse may be significantly overestimated when the expected loss computations are based on analytical models that ignore the composite beam effects and the interior gravity framing system of a steel frame building. For frequently occurring seismic events building losses are dominated by non‐structural content repairs. In this case, the choice of the analytical model representation of the steel frame building becomes less important. Losses due to demolition and collapse in steel frame buildings with special moment frames designed with strong‐column/weak‐beam ratio larger than 2.0 are reduced by a factor of two compared with those in the same frames designed with a strong‐column/weak‐beam ratio larger than 1.0 as recommended in ANSI/AISC‐341‐10. The expected annual losses (EALs) of steel frame buildings with SMFs vary from 0.38% to 0.74% over the building life expectancy. The EALs are dominated by repairs of acceleration‐sensitive non‐structural content followed by repairs of drift‐sensitive non‐structural components. It is found that the effect of strong‐column/weak‐beam ratio on EALs is negligible. This is not the case when the present value of life‐cycle costs is selected as a loss‐metric. It is advisable to employ a combination of loss‐metrics to assess the earthquake‐induced losses in steel frame buildings with special moment frames depending on the seismic performance level of interest. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Quaternary glacial history of Khentey Mountains,Central Mongolia

Mongolian glaciers have been the subject of relatively little research, resulting in less geochronological constraint than other parts of Central Asia. The Khentey Mountains (latitude 47–51°N, longitude 105–112°E) are a typical landlocked mountain range exhibiting clear geomorphic evidence of late Quaternary glaciation. Yet, compared to western parts of Mongolia such as the Mongolian Altay, Gobi Altay, Khangay, and Khovsgol, glacial history of the Khentey Mountains is poorly understood. To address this, and permit comparison of the Khentey glacier–climate record with other alpine regions in Mongolia, we performed geomorphological mapping and cosmogenic ¹⁰Be surface‐exposure dating in two glaciated regions of the Khentey Mountains: Yestii and Khagiin Khar. Specifically, we measured ¹⁰Be in 34 samples collected from five moraine sequences, which, together with morphostratigraphy, correspond to four main glacial stages: (i) The M_y1 terminal moraine sequence for Yestii (21.0±4.9 ka) and the M_k1 moraine for Khagiin Khar (19.6±2.6 ka), both of which represent the Last Glacial Maximum; (ii) the Lateglacial M_k2 moraine, dated to 16.0±3.5 ka; (iii) the M_k3 moraine, dated to either 17.6±7.0 ka (Lateglacial) or 12.1±1.1 ka (Younger Dryas); and (iv) the currently undated M_k4 moraine (~2200 m a.s.l.), to which we assign a Holocene age. Our results suggest that the timing of maximum glacier extent in Mongolia was regionally variable. In the Khentey Mountains, maximum glaciation occurred during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2, whereas the maximum occurred during MIS 3 in Khangay and Khovsgol and during MIS 4 in the Altay. The MIS 2 glacial maximum in the Khentey Mountains coincided with the global sea level minimum during the Last Glacial Maximum, and was followed by at least three glacial re‐advances during the Lateglacial to possibly the Holocene.     

A Numerical Study of Sea-Fog Formation over Cold Sea Surface Using a One-Dimensional Turbulence Model Coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

The formation mechanism of a cold sea-fog case observed over the Yellow Sea near the western coastal area of the Korean Peninsula is investigated using numerical simulation with a one-dimensional turbulence model coupled with a three-dimensional regional model. The simulation was carried out using both Eulerian and Lagrangian approaches; both approaches produced sea fog in a manner consistent with observation. For the selected cold sea-fog case, the model results suggested the following: as warm and moist air flows over a cold sea surface, the lower part of the air column is modified by the turbulent exchange of heat and moisture and the diurnal variation in radiation. The modified boundary-layer structure represents a typical stable thermally internal boundary layer. Within the stable thermally internal boundary layer, the air temperature is decreased by radiative cooling and turbulent heat exchange but the moisture loss due to the downward vapour flux in the lowest part of the air column is compensated by moisture advection and therefore the dewpoint temperature does not decrease as rapidly as does the air temperature. Eventually water vapour saturation is achieved and the cold sea fog forms in the thermal internal boundary layer.     

Potassium–Argon Ages of the Epithermal Gold–Silver Mineralization in the Haenam–Jindo Area,Southwestern Korea

The Haenam–Jindo area, located on the southwestern margin of the Korean Peninsula, was the site of vigorous volcanic activity during the Late Cretaceous and Early Tertiary periods. Large parts of the area record strong hydrothermal alteration, and there exist many clay–alunite and gold–silver deposits. We undertook potassium–argon (K–Ar) age dating of five mineral samples (including adularia, sericite and alunite) from the Eunsan, Moisan and Gasado epithermal gold–silver deposits in this area. The purities of the samples were confirmed by X‐ray diffraction analysis. The K–Ar ages of adularia from the Eunsan deposit and adularia and sericite from the Moisan deposit (related to gold–silver mineralization) are 75.0 ± 1.6, 74.7 ± 1.6 and 75.1 ± 1.6 Ma, respectively. The similarity of these ages, combined with the close proximity and similar geochemical characteristics of the deposits, indicates that the mineralization occurred as part of a single hydrothermal system. The K–Ar ages of alunite at the surface and adularia at depth within the Gasado deposit are 82.2 ± 1.9 and 70.7 ± 1.9 Ma, respectively, revealing that the clay–alunite and gold–silver mineralization formed at different ages. K–Ar age data indicate that the gold–silver mineralization in this area occurred mainly at 75–70 Ma, resulting from hydrothermal activity in the Haenam–Jindo area (82–70 Ma). This is the first time that the mineralization of precious metals in Korea has been identified during this period.     

Late Quaternary glaciation in the Nun‐Kun massif,northwestern India

The late Quaternary glacial history of the Nun‐Kun massif, located on the boundary between the Greater Himalaya and the Zanskar range in northwestern India, was reconstructed. On the basis of morphostratigraphy and ¹⁰Be dating of glacial landforms (moraines and glacial trimlines), five glacial stages were recognized and defined, namely: (i) the Achambur glacial stage dated to Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage 3 to 4 (38.7–62.7 ka); (ii) the Tongul glacial stage dated to the early part of the Lateglacial (16.7–17.4 ka); (iii) the Amantick glacial stage dated to the later part of the Lateglacial (14.3 ka, 11.7–12.4 ka); (iv) the Lomp glacial stage dated to the Little Ice Age; and (v) the Tanak glacial stage, which has the youngest moraines, probably dating to the last few decades or so. Present and former equilibrium‐line altitudes (ELAs) were calculated using the standard area accumulation ratio method. The average present‐day ELA of ～4790 m above sea level in the Greater Himalaya is lower than those in the Ladakh and Zanskar ranges, namely 5380 and ～5900 m a.s.l., respectively. The ELA in the Zanskar range is higher than in the Ladakh range, possibly due to the higher peaks in the Ladakh range that are able to more effectively capture and store snow and ice. ELA depressions decrease towards the Ladakh range (i.e. inner Plateau). Peat beds interbedded with aeolian deposits that cap the terminal moraine of Tarangoz Glacier suggest millennial‐time‐scale climate change throughout the Holocene, with soil formation times at c. 1.5, c. 3.4 and c. 5.2 ka, probably coinciding with Holocene abrupt climate change events. Given the style and timing of glaciation in the study area, it is likely that climate in the Nun‐Kun region is linked to Northern Hemisphere climate oscillations with teleconnections via the mid‐latitude westerlies.     

Constant slip rate during the late Quaternary along the Sulu He segment of the Altyn Tagh Fault near Changma,Gansu, China

The question of whether millennial‐scale geological slip rates are consistent with decade‐scale geodetic slip rates is of great importance in evaluating the nature of continental deformation within the Tibetan Plateau. We determined the time‐averaged slip rate of the Sulu He segment of the Altyn Tagh Fault, near Changma in Gansu Province, China, based on geomorphic analysis, remote sensing data, and cosmogenic ¹⁰Be surface‐exposure age dating. Quaternary alluvial fan deposits in the study area (Qf1, Qf2, Qf3) are displaced by left‐lateral movement along the Altyn Tagh Fault. Because of the large accumulated displacement of these fans, some of them have become disconnected from the fan apexes that are directly linked to the debris‐source areas in the piedmont of the Qilian Shan to the south. The total minimum offsets are estimated to be about 429 ± 41 m for Qf1, about 130 ± 10 m for Qf2, and 32 ± 1 m for Qf3. The ¹⁰Be surface‐exposure ages obtained for Qf1 and Qf2 are 100–112 ka and 31–43 ka, respectively. Accordingly, the slip rate since the period of Qf1 and Qf2 depositions is calculated to have been about 3.7 mm/yr.     

Five new species of lichomolgid copepods associated with ascidians from Korea,with proposal of two new genera (Crustacea,Copepoda, Lichomolgidae)

Five new species of the family Lichomolgidae associated with solitary ascidians are described from the east coast of Korea. Two new genera are proposed: Protomolgus n. gen. to incorpotate Protomolgus duplex n. sp. and P. singularis n. sp., and Dontimolgus n. gen. to incorporate Dontimolgus brevicaudatus n. sp. Protomolgus n. gen. characteristically has a four-segmented female maxilliped and a bipartite mandible. Dontimolgus n. gen. possesses a large, tooth-like process on the first maxillary segment and three spines on the third exopodal segment of leg 3. Other two new species described are Lichomolgus infirmus n. sp. and L. pectinatus n. sp.