Bayesian regression model for seasonal forecast of precipitation over Korea

In this paper, we apply three different Bayesian methods to the seasonal forecasting of the precipitation in a region around Korea (32.5°N?C42.5°N, 122.5°E-132.5°E). We focus on the precipitation of summer season (June?CJuly?CAugust; JJA) for the period of 1979?C2007 using the precipitation produced by the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) as predictors. Through cross-validation, we demonstrate improvement for seasonal forecast of precipitation in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE) and linear error in probability space score (LEPS). The proposed methods yield RMSE of 1.09 and LEPS of 0.31 between the predicted and observed precipitations, while the prediction using GDAPS output only produces RMSE of 1.20 and LEPS of 0.33 for CPC Merged Analyzed Precipitation (CMAP) data. For station-measured precipitation data, the RMSE and LEPS of the proposed Bayesian methods are 0.53 and 0.29, while GDAPS output is 0.66 and 0.33, respectively. The methods seem to capture the spatial pattern of the observed precipitation. The Bayesian paradigm incorporates the model uncertainty as an integral part of modeling in a natural way. We provide a probabilistic forecast integrating model uncertainty.     

Toxicogenomic analysis of immune system-related genes in Japanese flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus) exposed to heavy oil

Heavy oil contamination is one of the most important environmental issues. Toxicities of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), including immune toxicities, are well characterized, however, the immune toxic effects of heavy oil, as a complex mixture of PAHs, have not been investigated. In the present study, we selected Japanese flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus) as a model organism, and observed alteration of immune function by the exposure to heavy oil. To analyze the expression profiles of immune system-related genes, we selected 309 cDNAs from our flounder EST library, and spotted them on a glass slide. Using this cDNA array, alteration of gene expression profiles was analyzed in the kidneys of flounders exposed to heavy oil. Six Japanese flounders (mean body weight: 197 g) were acclimated to laboratory conditions at 19-20 degrees C. Three fish were exposed to heavy oil C (bunker C) at a concentration of 3.8 g/L for 3 days, and the others were kept in seawater without heavy oil and used as the control. After the exposure period, the fish were transferred into control seawater and maintained for 4 days, and then they were dissected and their kidneys were removed. Total RNA was extracted from the kidney samples to use in gene expression analyses. The microarray detected alteration of immune system-related genes in the kidneys of heavy oil-exposed flounders, including down-regulation of immunoglobulin light chain, CD45, major histocompatibility complex class II antigens and macrophage colony-stimulating factor precursor, and up-regulation of interleukin-8 and lysozyme. These results suggest that pathogen resistance may be weakened in heavy oil-exposed fish, causing a subsequent bacterial infection, and then proinflammatory genes may be induced as a defensive response against the infection. Additionally, we found candidate genes for use as biomarkers of heavy oil exposure, such as N-myc downstream regulated gene 1 and heat shock cognate 71 kDa proteins.     

Sensitivity analysis for the GIS-based mapping of the ground subsidence hazard near abandoned underground coal mines

Ground subsidence around abandoned underground coal mines can cause much loss of life and property. We analyze factors that can affect ground subsidence around abandoned mines in Jeongahm in Kangwon-do by sensitivity analysis in geographic information system (GIS). Spatial data for the subsidence area, topography and geology and various ground engineering data were collected and used to make a factor raster database for a ground subsidence hazard map. To determine the importance of extracted subsidence-related factors, frequency ratio model and sensitivity analysis were employed. Sensitivity analysis is a method for comparing the combined effects of all factors except one. Sensitivity analysis and its verification showed that using all factors provided 91.61% accuracy. The best accuracy was achieved by not considering the groundwater depth (92.77%) and the worst by not considering the lineament (85.42%). The results show that the distance from the lineament and the distance from the drift highly affected the occurrence of ground subsidence, and the groundwater depth, land use and rock mass rating had the least effects. Thus, we determined causes of ground subsidence in the study area and this information could help in the prediction of ground subsidence in other areas.     

Effects of surfactants and electrolyte solutions on the properties of soil

Biosurfactants are frequently used in petroleum hydrocarbon and dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) remediation. The applicability of biosurfactant use in clayey soils requires an understanding and characterization of their interaction. Comprehensive effects of surfactants and electrolyte solutions on kaolinite clay soil were investigated for index properties, compaction, strength characteristics, hydraulic conductivities, and adsorption characteristics. Sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) and NaPO₃ decreased the liquid limit and plasticity index of the test soil. Maximum dry unit weights were increased and optimum moisture contents were decreased as SDS and biosurfactant were added for the compaction tests for mixtures of 30% kaolinite and 70% sand. The addition of non-ionic surfactant, biosurfactant, and CaCl₂ increased the initial elastic modulus and undrained shear strength of the kaolinite–sand mixture soils. Hydraulic conductivities were measured by fixed-wall double-ring permeameters. Results showed that the hydraulic conductivity was not significantly affected, but slightly decreased from 1×10⁻⁷ cm/s (water) to 0.3×10⁻⁷ cm/s for Triton X-100 and SDS. The adsorption characteristics of the chemicals onto kaolinite were also investigated by developing isotherm curves. SDS adsorbed onto soil particles with the strongest bonding strength of the fluids tested. Correlations among parameters were developed for surfactants, electrolyte solutions, and clayey soils.     

Fossil wood diversity gradient and Far-East Asia palaeoclimatology during the Late Triassic – Cretaceous interval

Mesozoic fossil floras are distributed over eastern Asia (China, Mongolia, Siberia, Korea and Japan) according to a regular latitudinal pattern. Two floras are usually distinguished, a northern type and a southern type, the distribution of which oscillated during the Mesozoic. In Japan, this regular pattern is disrupted by a sharp inflexion of the boundary between the two floras. Two competing hypotheses have been proposed to explain this disruption. One hypothesis advocates later tectonic motion clouding the original pattern, while the other hypothesis proposes that a warm oceanic current allowed the southern flora to grow much further north in coastal areas. We used fossil wood, a biotic component that has not previously been used, for a palaeobiogeographical study of the region. The observed fossil wood diversity at the generic level does not fit with the hypothesis of a warm oceanic current, unless this hypothesis is modified to include alternating warm northbound and cold southbound oceanic currents. Our results provide new evidence for the palaeoecology of the Mesozoic continental biota in Far-East Asia.     

A study on the preparation of fine and low soda alumina

A simple process to produce fine and low soda α-alumina (α-Al₂O₃) from a commercial grade aluminium trihydroxide (gibbsite, Al(OH)₃) produced by KC Corporation Ltd was developed. There are two options for this process with the first one producing low soda α-alumina (< 0.05% Na₂O) having a mean particle size of 50 μm. The second option yields a fine product with a mean size of less than 10 μm. In the first option, a plant aluminium trihydroxide containing 0.20% Na₂O was first fluidized with nitrogen at 400–600 °C to yield an amorphous activated alumina. This intermediate product was then treated with acetic or oxalic acid, washed with water and heated to 1200 °C to form calcined α-alumina, having a Na₂O content of less than 0.05%. A 20 min leaching using 0.2 M acetic or oxalic acid could yield an alumina product containing 0.04% Na₂O. In the second option, a new technique for the preparation of fine and low soda α-alumina was evaluated using an attrition mill working also as a leaching vessel at 80 °C. Fine (< 10 μm in mean particle size) and low soda (< 0.04% Na₂O) alumina was produced by a 20 min leaching step with 0.2 M acetic acid and concurrent attrition milling.     

Impact of MJO on the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the western Maritime Continent in the austral summer

This paper investigates the impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the western Maritime Continent during the austral summer. For this purpose, cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to the tropical rainfall measuring mission rain rate and the Japanese Reanalysis-25 data for the period 1998–2008. The real-time multivariate MJO index by Wheeler and Hendon (Mon Wea Rev 132:1917–1932, 2004) is adopted to define the intensity and the phase of MJO. It is demonstrated that the hourly maximum rain rate over the domain tends to increase when convectively active phase of MJO approaches the Maritime Continent. In contrast, the hourly maximum rain rate tends to decrease when convectively suppressed phase of MJO resides over the region. The changes in the rain rate due to MJO differ over the ocean and the land. This difference is the greatest when the MJO is in the mature stage. Throughout the day during this stage, terrestrial rain rates show minimum values while diurnally varying oceanic rain rates record maximum values. Thus, precipitation becomes more intense in the morning over the Java Sea and is weakened in the evening over Borneo and Sumatra during the mature stage of MJO. During the decaying stage of MJO over the Maritime Continent, the diurnal cycle of precipitation weakens significantly over the ocean but only weakly over land. Analyses suggest that the anomalous lower level winds accompanied by MJO interact with the monsoonal flow over the Maritime Continent. Westerlies induced by MJO convection in the mature stage are superimposed on the monsoonal westerlies over the equator and increase wind speed mainly over the Java Sea due to the blocking effect of orography. Mountainous islands induce flow bifurcation, causing near-surface winds to converge mainly over the oceanic channels between two islands. As a result, heat flux release from the ocean to the atmosphere is enhanced by the increased surface wind resulting in instability as described in the wind-induced surface heat exchange mechanism. This may contribute to heavy rainfall over the Java Sea in the morning during the mature stage. On the other hand, convergence and vertical velocity over the islands, which play important roles in inducing nighttime rainfall, tend to be weak in the evening during the mature stage of MJO. Strong westerlies arising from MJO and the seasonal flow during the mature stage tend to interrupt convergence over islands. This interruption of convergence by MJO gives rise to decreased rain rates over the land regions.     

Application of hybrid‐simulation to fragility assessment of the telescoping self‐centering energy dissipative bracing system

Substructure hybrid simulation has been the subject of numerous investigations in recent years. The simulation method allows for the assessment of the seismic performance of structures by representing critical components with physical specimens and the rest of the structure with numerical models. In this study the system level performance of a six‐storey structure with telescoping self‐centering energy dissipative (T‐SCED) braces is validated through pseudo‐dynamic (PsD) hybrid simulation. Fragility curves are derived for the T‐SCED system. This paper presents the configuration of the hybrid simulation, the newly developed control software for PsD hybrid simulation, which can integrate generic hydraulic actuators into PsD hybrid simulation, and the seismic performance of a structure equipped with T‐SCED braces. The experimental results show that the six‐storey structure with T‐SCED braces satisfies performance limits specified in ASCE 41. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Efficiency of Pleurotus florida Laccase on Decolorization and Detoxification of the Reactive Dye Remazol Brilliant Blue R (RBBR) under Optimized Conditions

Laccase from the white‐rot fungus Pleurotus florida, produced under solid‐state fermentation conditions, was used for the decolorization of reactive dye Remazol Brilliant Blue R (RBBR). RBBR was decolorized up to 46% by P. florida laccase alone in 10 min. In the presence of N‐hydroxybenzotriazole (HBT), the rate of decolorization was enhanced 1.56‐fold. Central composite design of response surface methodology with four variables namely, dye, enzyme, redox mediator concentrations, and time at five levels was applied to optimize the RBBR decolorization. The predicted optimum level of variables for maximum RBBR decolorization (87%) was found to be 52.90 mg L^?1 (RBBR), 1.87 U mL^?1 (laccase), 0.85 mM (HBT), and 7.17 min (time), respectively. The validation results showed that the experimental value of RBBR decolorization (82%) was close to the predicted one. The disappearance of C–N and C–X groups, and a small shift in N–H groups in Fourier‐transform infra red (FTIR) spectroscopy confirms the degradation of RBBR chromophore by laccase enzyme. The phytotoxicity of RBBR was considerably reduced after the treatment with laccase. RBBR decolorization kinetics; K_m and V_max were calculated to be 145.82 mg L^?1 and 24.86 mg L^?1 min, respectively.