The 2014 seismic hazard model of the Middle East: overview and results

The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) Project aimed to develop regional scale seismic hazard and risk models uniformly throughout a region extending from the Eastern Mediterranean in the west to the Himalayas in the east and from the Gulf of Oman in the south to the Greater Caucasus in the North; a region which has been continuously devastated by large earthquakes throughout the history. The 2014 Seismic Hazard Model of Middle East (EMME-SHM14) was developed with the contribution of several institutions from ten countries. The present paper summarizes the efforts towards building a homogeneous seismic hazard model of the region and highlights some of the main results of this model. An important aim of the project was to transparently communicate the data and methods used and to obtain reproducible results. By doing so, the use of the model and results will be accessible by a wide community, further support the mitigation of seismic risks in the region and facilitate future improvements to the seismic hazard model. To this end all data, results and methods used are made available through the web-portal of the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.efehr.org).     

Evaluation of plan configuration irregularity effects on seismic response demands of L-shaped MRF buildings

Damage assessments after past earthquakes have frequently revealed that plan configuration irregular buildings have more severe damage due to excessive torsional responses and stress concentration than regular buildings. The plan configuration irregularities introduce major challenges in the seismic design of buildings. One such form of irregularity is the presence of re-entrant corners in the L-shaped buildings that causes stress concentration due to sudden changes in stiffness and torsional response amplification; hence causes early collapse. A constructive research into re-entrant corner and torsional irregularity problems is essentially needed greater than ever. Therefore, the focus of this study is to investigate structural seismic response demands for the class of L-shaped buildings through evaluating the plan configuration irregularity of re-entrant corners and lateral–torsion coupling effects on measured seismic response demands. The measured responses include story drift, inter-story drift, story shear force, overturning moment, torsion moment at the base and over building height, and torsional irregularity ratio. Three dimensional finite element model for nine stories symmetric buildings as reference model is developed. In addition, six L-shaped building models are formulated with gradual reduction in the plan of the reference building model. The results prove that building models with high irregularity are more vulnerable due to the stress concentration and lateral torsional coupling behavior than that with regular buildings. In addition, the related lateral shear forces in vertical resisting elements located on the periphery of the L-shaped buildings could be significantly increased in comparison with the corresponding values for a symmetric building.     

Quantifying Modern Recharge and Depletion Rates of the Nubian Aquifer in Egypt

Egypt is currently seeking additional freshwater resources to support national reclamation projects based mainly on the Nubian aquifer groundwater resources. In this study, temporal (April 2002 to June 2016) Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)-derived terrestrial water storage (TWS_GRACE) along with other relevant datasets was used to monitor and quantify modern recharge and depletion rates of the Nubian aquifer in Egypt (NAE) and investigate the interaction of the NAE with artificial lakes. Results indicate: (1) the NAE is receiving a total recharge of 20.27 ± 1.95 km³ during 4/2002?2/2006 and 4/2008–6/2016 periods, (2) recharge events occur only under excessive precipitation conditions over the Nubian recharge domains and/or under a significant rise in Lake Nasser levels, (3) the NAE is witnessing a groundwater depletion of ? 13.45 ± 0.82 km³/year during 3/2006–3/2008 period, (4) the observed groundwater depletion is largely related to exceptional drought conditions and/or normal baseflow recession, and (5) a conjunctive surface water and groundwater management plan needs to be adapted to develop sustainable water resources management in the NAE. Findings demonstrate the use of global monthly TWS_GRACE solutions as a practical, informative, and cost-effective approach for monitoring aquifer systems across the globe.     

Exploring Groundwater Resources and Recharge Potentialities at El-Gallaba Plain,Western Desert,Egypt

Egypt has a fast-growing population rate of 2.5%/year; consequently, there is an increase in the water demand for living and launching different development plans. Meanwhile, there is intensive construction of several dams in the upstream Nile basin countries. Thus, it is necessary to search for new water resources to overcome the expected shortages of the Nile water supply by focusing on alternative groundwater resources. El-Gallaba Plain area is one of the most promising areas in the western desert of Egypt attaining the priority for new reclamation projects; however, its hydrogeological setting is not well understood. The present work aims at identifying the recharge potential of the groundwater aquifers in El-Gallaba Plain, as well as exploring the role of geologic structures as natural conduits, and evaluating the groundwater types, origin and distribution. The integration of hydrogeophysical studies (aero and land magnetic surveys, vertical electrical sounding), hydrochemical analyses and remote sensing were successfully used for assessing the groundwater development potential. The hydrogeophysical studies show a large graben bound aquifer with thickness exceeding 220 m. The hydrochemical results indicate the presence of three major water types; Na mix, Na Cl, Na Cl HCO₃ with salinities ranging between 227 and 4324 mg/L. The aquifer receives little recharge from the western fractured calcareous plateau from past pluvial periods and scarce present flashfloods. There is no indication for recent recharge from Lake Nasser to the aquifer domain. Further modeling studies are essential for establishing sustainable abstraction levels from this aquifer.     

Advances in computational morphodynamics using the International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) software

Results from computational morphodynamics modeling of coupled flow–bed–sediment systems are described for 10 applications as a review of recent advances in the field. Each of these applications is drawn from solvers included in the public-domain International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) software package. For mesoscale river features such as bars, predictions of alternate and higher mode river bars are shown for flows with equilibrium sediment supply and for a single case of oversupplied sediment. For microscale bed features such as bedforms, computational results are shown for the development and evolution of two-dimensional bedforms using a simple closure-based two-dimensional model, for two- and three-dimensional ripples and dunes using a three-dimensional large-eddy simulation flow model coupled to a physics-based particle transport model, and for the development of bed streaks using a three-dimensional unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes solver with a simple sediment-transport treatment. Finally, macroscale or channel evolution treatments are used to examine the temporal development of meandering channels, a failure model for cantilevered banks, the effect of bank vegetation on channel width, the development of channel networks in tidal systems, and the evolution of bedrock channels. In all examples, computational morphodynamics results from iRIC solvers compare well to observations of natural bed morphology. For each of the three scales investigated here, brief suggestions for future work and potential research directions are offered. © 2019 The Authors Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Impact of vegetation on erosion: Insights from the calibration and test of a landscape evolution model in alpine badland catchments

While it is well recognized that vegetation can affect erosion, sediment yield and, over longer timescales, landform evolution, the nature of this interaction and how it should be modeled is not obvious and may depend on the study site. In order to develop quantitative insight into the magnitude and nature of the influence of vegetation on catchment erosion, we build a landscape evolution model to simulate erosion in badlands, then calibrate and evaluate it against sediment yield data for two catchments with contrasting vegetation cover. The model couples hillslope gravitational transport and stream alluvium transport. Results indicate that hillslope transport processes depend strongly on the vegetation cover, whereas stream transport processes do not seem to be affected by the presence of vegetation. The model performance in prediction is found to be higher for the denuded catchment than for the reforested one. Moreover, we find that vegetation acts on erosion mostly by reducing soil erodibility rather than by reducing surface runoff. Finally, the methodology we propose can be a useful tool to evaluate the efficiency of previous revegetation operations and to provide guidance for future restoration work. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Impact of Human Activities on Flood Trends in the Semi-Arid Climate of Cheliff Basin,Algeria

Water Resources - Algeria shares similarities with other countries of the world facing destructive floods. The need to understand changes in the intensity, frequency and severity of floods is...     

Experimental evaluation of force analogy method (FAM) by element type

The force analogy method(FAM) is considered as one of the most time-saving and cost-efficient methods for analyzing frames. Through a set of assumptions and restoring forces, FAM analyzes nonlinear frames responses through Hooke's law. This study evaluates the effect of element type on FAM through numerical and experimental tests. The conventional Euler Bernoulli(EB) element is replaced by the Timoshenko(TS) beam-column element and the results are interpreted and compared with experimental findings. Three experimental tests were conducted for benchmarking and comparison purposes via 2 D aluminum frames. The results indicated that during the analysis, when the frame response is in the linear region, there is no difference between the element types in the response of the frames. When the frame entered the plastic region, the frames which were analyzed by the TS element revealed closer responses to the experimental outcomes. The gap between the results of the frame which was analyzed by EB and TS enlarged especially when the frame experienced a sharp or huge rotation of more than 0.2 rad. The final recorded deformations based on the TS element revealed an accuracy between 98.05% to 98.65%, while the EB element showed 14.66% to 45.14% for rotations of more than 0.2 rad at plastic hinge locations(PHLs).     

Methodology for estimating human perception to tremors in high-rise buildings

Human perception to tremors during earthquakes in high-rise buildings is usually associated with psychological discomfort such as fear and anxiety. This paper presents a methodology for estimating the level of perception to tremors for occupants living in high-rise buildings subjected to ground motion excitations. Unlike other approaches based on empirical or historical data, the proposed methodology performs a regression analysis using the analytical results of two generic models of 15 and 30 stories. The recorded ground motions in Singapore are collected and modified for structural response analyses. Simple predictive models are then developed to estimate the perception level to tremors based on a proposed ground motion intensity parameter—the average response spectrum intensity in the period range between 0.1 and 2.0 s. These models can be used to predict the percentage of occupants in high-rise buildings who may perceive the tremors at a given ground motion intensity. Furthermore, the models are validated with two recent tremor events reportedly felt in Singapore. It is found that the estimated results match reasonably well with the reports in the local newspapers and from the authorities. The proposed methodology is applicable to urban regions where people living in high-rise buildings might feel tremors during earthquakes.     

Development of a new connection for precast concrete walls subjected to cyclic loading

The Industrialized Building System (IBS) was recently introduced to minimize the time and cost of project construction. Accordingly, ensuring the integration of the connection of precast components in IBS structures is an important factor that ensures stability of buildings subjected to dynamic loads from earthquakes, vehicles, and machineries. However, structural engineers still lack knowledge on the proper connection and detailed joints of IBS structure construction. Therefore, this study proposes a special precast concrete wall-to-wall connection system for dynamic loads that resists multidirectional imposed loads and reduces vibration effects (PI2014701723). This system is designed to connect two adjacent precast wall panels by using two steel U-shaped channels (i.e., male and female joints). During casting, each joint is adapted for incorporation into a respective wall panel after considering the following conditions: one side of the steel channel opens into the thickness face of the panel; a U-shaped rubber is implemented between the two channels to dissipate the vibration effect; and bolts and nuts are used to create an extension between the two U-shaped male and female steel channels. The developed finite element model of the precast wall is subjected to cyclic loads to evaluate the performance of the proposed connection during an imposed dynamic load. Connection performance is then compared with conventional connections based on the energy dissipation, stress, deformation, and concrete damage in the plastic range. The proposed precast connection is capable of exceeding the energy absorption of precast walls subjected to dynamic load, thereby improving its resistance behavior in all principal directions.