A fast GIS-based risk assessment for tephra fallout: the example of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador-Part II: vulnerability and risk assessment

In order to develop efficient strategies for risk mitigation and emergency management, planners require the assessment of both the expected hazard (frequency and magnitude) and the vulnerability of exposed elements. This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to produce qualitative to semi-qualitative thematic risk assessments for tephra fallout around explosive volcanoes, designed to operate with datasets of variable precision and resolution depending on data availability. Due to the constant increase in population density around volcanoes and to the wide dispersal of tephra from volcanic plumes, a large range of threats, such as roof collapses, damage to crops, blockage of vital lifelines and health problems, concern even remote communities. To address these issues, we have assessed the vulnerability and the risk levels for five themes relevant to tephra fallout: (1) social, (2) economic, (3) environmental, (4) physical and (5) territorial. Risk and vulnerability indices for each theme are averaged to the fourth level of administrative unit (parroquia, parish). In a companion paper, Biass and Bonadonna (this volume) present a probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador) using the advection-diffusion model TEPHRA2, which is based on field investigations and a global eruption database (Global Volcanism Program, GVP). The scope of this paper is to present a new approach to risk assessment specifically designed for tephra fallout, based on a comprehensive hazard assessment of Cotopaxi volcano. Our results show that an eruption of moderate magnitude (i.e. VEI 4) would result in the possible collapse of ??9,000 houses in the two parishes located close to the volcano. Our study also reveals a high risk on agriculture, closely linked to the economic sector, and a possible accessibility problem in case of an eruption of any size, as tephra is likely to affect the only major road running from Quito to Latacunga (Panamerican Highway). As a result, this method fits into the ongoing effort to better characterize and evaluate volcanic risk, and more specifically the risk associated with tephra fallout. Although this methodology relies on some assumptions, it can serve as a rapid and efficient starting point for further investigations of the risk level around explosive volcanoes.     

Tropical Indian Ocean variability revealed by self-organizing maps

The tropical Indian Ocean climate variability is investigated using an artificial neural network analysis called self-organizing map (SOM) for both observational data and coupled model outputs. The SOM successfully captures the dipole sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and basin-wide warming/cooling associated with ENSO. The dipole SSTA pattern appears only in boreal summer and fall, whereas the basin-wide warming/cooling appears mostly in boreal winter and spring owing to the phase-locking nature of these phenomena. Their occurrence also undergoes significant decadal variation. Composite diagrams constructed for nodes in the SOM array based on the simulated SSTA reveal interesting features. For the nodes with the basin-wide warming, a strong positive SSTA in the eastern equatorial Pacific, a negative Southern Oscillation, and a negative precipitation anomaly in East Africa are found. The nodes with the positive IOD are associated with a weak positive SSTA in the central equatorial Pacific or positive SSTA in the eastern equatorial Pacific, a positive (negative) sea level pressure anomaly in the eastern (western) tropical Indian Ocean, and a positive precipitation anomaly over East Africa. The warming in the central equatorial Pacific appears to correspond to El Niño Modoki discussed recently. These results suggest usefulness of SOM in studying large-scale ocean–atmosphere coupled phenomena.     

Landslide activation behaviour illuminated by electrical resistance monitoring

A common factor in landslide activation (or reactivation) is subsurface moisture and associated pore pressure variations linked to rainfall. Monitoring of these subsurface hydrogeological processes is necessary to improve our understanding of water‐induced landslide activation. Geophysical approaches, electrical methods in particular, are increasingly being applied to landslide monitoring because they provide non‐invasive spatial information in heterogeneous subsurface environments that can be difficult to characterise using surface observations or intrusive sampling alone. Electrical techniques are sensitive to changing subsurface moisture conditions, and have proven to be a useful tool for investigating the hydrogeology of natural and engineered slopes. The objectives of this investigation were to further develop electrical resistance monitoring for slope stability assessment, and to validate the approach at an intermittently‐active UK landslide system to advance the understanding of complex landslide activation mechanisms. A long‐term transfer resistance dataset was collected from a grid of electrodes to allow spatial monitoring of the landslide. These data were interpreted using a synthesis of rainfall, temperature, GPS and piezometric records. The resistance data were corrected for seasonal temperature variations and electrode movements were monitored, as these processes were shown to mask moisture related changes. Results reveal that resistance monitoring is sensitive to soil moisture accumulation, including changes in piezometric levels, and can be used to study the principal activation mechanism of slow‐moving shallow earthflows. Spatial monitoring using resistance maps was shown to be particularly valuable as it revealed the evolution of subsurface moisture distribution, in the lead up to landslide activation. Key benefits of this approach are that it provides a simple, rapid and non‐invasive means of spatially monitoring subsurface moisture dynamics linked to landslide activation at high‐temporal resolution. Crucially, it provides a means of monitoring subsurface hydraulic changes in the build‐up to slope failure, thereby contributing to early warning of landslide events. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Detecting co-seismic displacements in glaciated regions: An example from the great November 2002 Denali earthquake using SPOT horizontal offsets

We use SPOT image pairs to determine horizontal offsets associated with the Mw 7.9 November 2002 Denali earthquake in the vicinity of Slate Creek, AK. Field measurements and aerial photographs are used to further characterize the geometry of the surface rupture. Aerial photographs show that shear localization occurs where the rupture trace is linear, and distributed off-fault deformation is common at fault bends and step-overs, or at geologic contacts between rock, glacial sediments, and ice. The displacement field is generated using a sub-pixel cross correlation technique between SPOT images taken before and after the earthquake. We identify the effects of glacier motion in order to isolate the tectonic displacements associated with the Denali earthquake. The resulting horizontal displacement field shows an along-strike variation in dextral shear, with a maximum of approximately 7.5 m in the east near 144° 52′W, which decreases to about 5 m to the west near 145° 45′W. If the November 2002 earthquake represents the long-term behavior of the Denali fault, it implies a westward decrease in the long-term dextral slip rate. A possible mechanism to accommodate the westward decreasing slip on the Denali fault is to transfer fault slip to adjacent east-trending contractional structures in the western region of the central Alaskan Range.     

Photometric correction and in-flight calibration of Chang’ E-1 Interference Imaging Spectrometer (IIM) data

The main objective of this study is to develop a new photometric correction that is suitable for global Chang’ E-1 (CE-1) Interference Imaging Spectrometer (IIM) data. We considered two improvements in the accuracy of the photometric correction: (1) classifying the whole Moon’s surface into four classes (very bright rays, mature highlands, low FeO basalts, and high FeO basalts) based on the FeO contents; (2) decoupling the combined effects of the solar photometry and the detector responsivity along the cross-track. The results showed that our decoupling method could correct the non-uniformity of detector response but retain the cross-track photometry. Based on these in-flight calibrated data, spectrally continuous photometric functions of the four classes were obtained. By eliminating the contamination from highlands ejecta and low FeO basalts, the opposition surge of the high FeO maria was evident for the first time. The amplitude and width of the opposition surge presents wavelength dependence, which suggests that shadow hiding is the mechanism responsible for the opposition surge. A global lunar reflectance map whose boundaries between adjacent orbits are invisible was generated using the new four-type photometric functions. The quality of the global mosaic and the consistency of the reflectance spectra of the same area obtained in different orbits indicate the effectiveness of our photometric correction method. Although our method was specifically applied to the IIM data, the photometric correction method and the parameter values derived in this study is expected to be suitable for other optical instruments.     

The oceanic substratum of Northern Luzon: Evidence from xenoliths within Monglo adakite (the Philippines)

Abstract   A 8.65 Ma adakitic intrusive sheet exposed near Monglo village in the Baguio District of Northern Luzon contains a suite of ultramafic and mafic xenoliths including in order of abundance: spinel dunites showing typical mantle-related textures, mineral and bulk rock compositions, and serpentinites derived from them; amphibole-rich gabbros displaying incompatible element patterns similar to those of flat or moderately enriched back-arc basin basalt magmas; and amphibolites derived from metabasalts and/or metagabbros of identical affinity. A single quartz diorite xenolith carrying a similar subduction-related geochemical signature has also been sampled. One amphibolite xenolith provided a whole-rock K–Ar age of 115.6 Ma (Barremian). We attribute the origin of this suite to the sampling by ascending adakitic magmas of a Lower Cretaceous ophiolitic complex located at a depth within the 30–35 km thick Luzon crust. It could represent an equivalent of the Isabela-Aurora and Pugo-Lepanto ophiolitic massifs exposed in Northern Luzon.     

Changes in diatom, pollen, and chironomid assemblages in response to a recent volcanic event in Lake Galletué (Chilean Andes)

Several lakes in Chile are near important volcanic areas where eruption impacts can limit the quality of lacustrine sediments for reconstructing past environmental changes. In this study, we report changes in diatoms, pollen, and chironomids assemblages after a tephra deposition in Lake Galletué (Chilean Andes). A sediment core obtained from Lake Galletué (40 m water depth) was sliced in 1 cm intervals and subsamples were taken to analyze each proxy. ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs activities were measured to obtain the geochronology and mineralogical analyses were performed to determine the mineral composition of the tephra. Diatom species composition and productivity were modified when the lake received the tephra; Aulacoseira granulata decreased and was later replaced by Cyclotella af. glomerata. After the tephra input, Aulacoseira granulata abundance increased to pre-disturbance levels and Cyclotella af. glomerata decreased. These changes seem to suggest a momentary increase in lake nutrient levels after the tephra deposition. Chironomid assemblages also decreased in head capsules just after the tephra deposition, but the most important change was the replacement of Ablabesmyia by Parakiefferiella, probably due to the sedimentological changes produced by the input of coarse tephra grains. Furthermore, unlike other studies, chironomid assemblages in Lake Galletué did not show a decrease drastically in diversity within the tephra layer. The pollen analysis indicated that, prior to the volcanic event, the vegetal community was dominated by Nothofagus sp., Araucaria araucana, and Blechnum sp.-type. After the tephra deposition, the same taxa are dominant, indicating that the volcanic event seems not produce changes in the vegetation. Nevertheless, within the tephra layer it is possible to see an increase in Poaceae, which represent – due to the percolation process – the effect of eruption on the vegetation. According to our results, diatoms were the most sensitive proxy for describing the changes produced by tephra deposition into the aquatic ecosystem and, despite the noticeable changes in its sedimentological properties; the lake seems to have a high resilience capacity, allowing it to return to pre-tephra input conditions.