A fast GIS-based risk assessment for tephra fallout: the example of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador

We present a comprehensive probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout of Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador), a quiescent but active stratovolcano known for its highly explosive behaviour. First, we developed a set of possible eruptive scenarios based on thorough field investigations, literature studies and using the Global Volcanism Program (GVP) database. Five eruption scenarios were identified, including two based on large pre-historical sub-Plinian/Plinian eruptions with eruptive parameters constrained from field investigations (One Eruption Scenario; OES) and three Eruption Range Scenarios (ERS) based on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) classification, for which eruptive parameters (i.e. erupted volume, plume height and median grainsize) were stochastically sampled within boundaries defined by VEI 3, 4 and 5. Second, the modelling was performed using the advection-diffusion model TEPHRA2 in combination with wind profiles from the NOAA NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 database. We performed 1,000 runs for each eruption scenario, stochastically sampling a wind profile (OES and ERS) and a set of eruptive parameters (ERS only) at each run. Using the conditional probabilities of occurrence of eruption of VEI 3, 4 and 5 calculated from the GVP catalogue, we assessed the probability of tephra accumulation in a given time window. Based on the GVP database, a simple Poisson model shows that an eruption of VEI???3 has a 36?% probability of occurrence in the next 10?years. Finally, the hazard assessment was compiled based on three different outputs, including (i) probability maps for a given tephra accumulation, (ii) isomass maps for a given probability value and (iii) hazard curves for a given location. We conclude that the area west of Cotopaxi is exposed to light to severe tephra fallout for the smallest eruption magnitude considered (i.e. VEI 3). This area comprises a main communication axis (Panamerican Highway) topographically constrained at the bottom of the Interandean Valley, as well as the capital Quito and the town of Latacunga. In a companion paper, Biass et?al. (this volume) propose a method for a rapid risk assessment for tephra fallout using global and easily accessible data and the hazard assessment described here.     

The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Vector Magnetic Field Pipeline: Overview and Performance

The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) began near-continuous full-disk solar measurements on 1 May 2010 from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). An automated processing pipeline keeps pace with observations to produce observable quantities, including the photospheric vector magnetic field, from sequences of filtergrams. The basic vector-field frame list cadence is 135 seconds, but to reduce noise the filtergrams are combined to derive data products every 720 seconds. The primary 720 s observables were released in mid-2010, including Stokes polarization parameters measured at six wavelengths, as well as intensity, Doppler velocity, and the line-of-sight magnetic field. More advanced products, including the full vector magnetic field, are now available. Automatically identified HMI Active Region Patches (HARPs) track the location and shape of magnetic regions throughout their lifetime. The vector field is computed using the Very Fast Inversion of the Stokes Vector (VFISV) code optimized for the HMI pipeline; the remaining 180^° azimuth ambiguity is resolved with the Minimum Energy (ME0) code. The Milne–Eddington inversion is performed on all full-disk HMI observations. The disambiguation, until recently run only on HARP regions, is now implemented for the full disk. Vector and scalar quantities in the patches are used to derive active region indices potentially useful for forecasting; the data maps and indices are collected in the SHARP data series, hmi.sharp_720s. Definitive SHARP processing is completed only after the region rotates off the visible disk; quick-look products are produced in near real time. Patches are provided in both CCD and heliographic coordinates. HMI provides continuous coverage of the vector field, but has modest spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution. Coupled with limitations of the analysis and interpretation techniques, effects of the orbital velocity, and instrument performance, the resulting measurements have a certain dynamic range and sensitivity and are subject to systematic errors and uncertainties that are characterized in this report.     

Spectroscopy, morphometry, and photoclinometry of Titan's dunefields from Cassini/VIMS

Fine-resolution (500 m/pixel) Cassini Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) T20 observations of Titan resolve that moon's sand dunes. The spectral variability in some dune regions shows that there are sand-free interdune areas, wherein VIMS spectra reveal the exposed dune substrate. The interdunes from T20 are, variously, materials that correspond to the equatorial bright, 5-μm-bright, and dark blue spectral units. Our observations show that an enigmatic “dark red” spectral unit seen in T5 in fact represents a macroscopic mixture with 5-μm-bright material and dunes as its spectral endmembers. Looking more broadly, similar mixtures of varying amounts of dune and interdune units of varying composition can explain the spectral and albedo variability within the dark brown dune global spectral unit that is associated with dunes. The presence of interdunes indicates that Titan's dunefields are both mature and recently active. The spectrum of the dune endmember reveals the sand to be composed of less water ice than the rest of Titan; various organics are consistent with the dunes' measured reflectivity. We measure a mean dune spacing of 2.1 km, and find that the dunes are oriented on the average in an east-west direction, but angling up to 10° from parallel to the equator in specific cases. Where no interdunes are present, we determine the height of one set of dunes photoclinometrically to be between 30 and 70 m. These results pave the way for future exploration and interpretation of Titan's sand dunes.     

新疆东天山十里坡自然铜矿化区马头滩组玄武岩锆石LA-ICPMS U-Pb年龄及其意义

新疆北部东天山十里坡地区近年来新发现了与玄武岩有关的自然铜矿化这一新类型。自然铜的赋矿地层-马头滩组中的赋矿玄武岩锆石 LA-ICPMS 年龄为307±4Ma,对应于晚石炭世,显示该套赋矿地层属于上石炭统。从该区自然铜赋矿火山岩所限定的时间看,成矿背景应属于后碰撞环境。东天山十里坡地区自然铜矿化的构造背景、成矿系统和矿化类型与峨眉山玄武岩自然铜矿化和美国基威诺铜矿床均存在差异,自然铜矿化的成因可能也存在差异。     

Geochronology of the volcanic rocks in the Lu-Zong basin and its significance

The Lu-Zong (Lujiang-Zongyang) basin is one of the most important volcanic basins in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River area, China. It comprises four shoshonitic volcanic units, which are, in an ascending order, the Longmenyuan, Zhuanqiao, Shuangmiao and Fushan Groups. The LA-ICP MS U-Pb zircon ages of the four units are: 134.8±1.8 Ma for the Longmenyuan Group, 134.1±1.6 Ma for the Zhuanqiao Group, 130.5±0.8 Ma for the Shuangmiao Group, and 127.1±1.2 Ma for the Fushan Group. The results indicate that all volcanic rocks in the Lu-Zong basin were formed in the Early Cretaceous from about 135 Ma to 127 Ma, lasting 8-10 Ma. There were no Jurassic volcanic activities in all the volcanic basins including the Lu-Zong basin in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River area. This work has provided new chronological results for the further study and understanding of the tec- tonic, magmatic and metallogenic processes of eastern China in the Mesozoic.     

Annual ENSO simulated in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model

Using an output from 200-year integration of the Scale Interaction Experiment of EU project-F1 model (SINTEX-F1), the annual ENSO reproduced in the coupled general circulation model is investigated, suggesting the importance of reproducing an annual cycle in realistically simulating ENSO events. Although many features of the annual ENSO are reproduced, the northward expansion of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the eastern tropical Pacific stays south of the equator. It is suggested that this model bias is due to the excitation of the too strong Rossby waves in the southeastern tropical Pacific, which reflect at the western boundary and intrude into the eastern equatorial Pacific. The zonal wind stress anomaly along the equator also plays an important role in generating the equatorial Kelvin waves. The amplitude of SSTA for the annual ENSO mode is reproduced, but its variance is only 20% of the observation; this is again due to the lack of northward migration of seasonal SSTA in the equatorial region and weaker coastal Kelvin waves along South America. Remedies for the model bias are discussed.     

Characterization of Galena and Vein Paragenesis in the Penjom Gold Mine, Malaysia: Trace Elements, Lead Isotope Study and Relationship to Gold Mineralization Episodes

The Penjom Gold Mine is located 30 km from the Bentong-Raub Suture at the western boundary of the Central Belt in Peninsular Malaysia. Gold mineralization hosted within the vein system is associated with pyrite, arsenopyrite, and minor base metals including galena. Trace element and lead isotope analysis was undertaken on nine samples that represent two stages of galena formed during two tectonic events. Both the Pb isotopes and the trace elements show that the first stage galena within the mineralized areas at the footwall has different geochemical characteristics compared with galena in non mineralized areas in the hanging wall, suggesting that galena crystallized from two different ore fluids and probably at two different times. Higher Te, Se and Bi in the galena from the mineralized area may indicate hydrothermal fluids that migrate through the structural conduit and leached out the metal along the pathway that consist of dominant carbonaceous unit. The Pb isotopic ratio composition are transitional between the bulk crustal growth and an upper crustal growth curve, indicating that derivation was from arc rocks associated with continental crust or a crustal source that includes arc volcanic and old continental sedimentary rocks.     

Geochemical Features of the Two Early Paleozoic Ophiolitic Zones and Volcanic Rocks in the Central —Southern Tianshan Region ,Xinjiang

This paper deals with the geochemical features of the two Early Paleozoic ophiolite zones in the central-southem Tianshan region and the central Tianshan igneous rock belt between them.Study results suggest that the central Tianshan belt was an Ordovician volcanic arc with an affinity of continental crust, and the Kumux-Hongluhe ophiolitic zone that is located on the southern margin of central Tianshan has a crustal affinity to back-arc marginal sea.The Aqqikkudug-Weiya ophiolitic zone is an accretionary boundary between the Tuha continental block and the central Tianshan volcanic arc during Late Silurian to Devoniann;Ordovician ophi-olitic blocks,Silurian flysch sequence and HP metamorphic rock relics are distributed along the Aqqikkudug-Weiya zone.Geochemically,ophiolitic rocks in the Aqqikkudug-Weiya zone have an affinity to oceanic crust,reflecting a tectonic setting of paleo-trench or subduction zone .The Early Carboniferous red molasses were deposited unconformably on the pre-Carboniferous meta-mrophosed and ductile sheared volcanic and flysch rocks,providing an upper limit age of the central and southern Tianshan belts.     

Influence of diaphragm wall installation on the numerical analysis of deep excavation

This paper presents a numerical analysis of the influence of initial stress state on the response of deep excavation supported by retaining wall. Indeed, the influence of diaphragm wall installation prior to excavation works may affect the soil response and lateral wall deflection induced by excavation process. The first part of this paper gives a short review of the numerical methods aimed to reproduce the retaining wall installation. Numerical analysis of a deep excavation in two‐dimensional and three‐dimensional conditions is then performed according to the methods previously presented. In three‐dimensional conditions, diaphragm wall installation is performed considering a sequence of panels, described by their number and length. Results of three‐dimensional calculations confirm that stress state is disturbed by wall installation, which has a sensitive effect on the ground response induced by soil excavation. It is also noted that these results are not easily reproduced in two‐dimensional conditions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.