Random cascade driven rainfall disaggregation for urban hydrology: An evaluation of six models and a new generator

Six variations of multiplicative random cascade models for generating fine-resolution (i.e., 5-minute interval) rainfall time series were evaluated for rainfall in Wroclaw, Poland. Of these variations, one included a new beta-normal generator for a microcanonical cascade. This newly proposed model successfully reproduces the statistical behavior of local 5-minute rainfalls, in terms of intermittency as well as variability. In contrast, both the canonical cascade models with either constant or time-scaled parameters and a microcanonical cascade model with a beta generator substantially underestimate 5-minute maximum rainfall intensities. The canonical models also fail to properly reproduce the intermittency of the rainfall process across a range of timescales. New observations are also made concerning the histograms of the breakdown coefficients (BDC). The tendency of the BDC histograms to have values exactly equal to 0.5 is identified and explained by the quality of pluviograph records. Moreover, the hierarchical evolution of BDC histograms from beta-like for long time steps to beta-normal histograms for short time steps is observed for the first time. The potential advantage is shown of synthetic high resolution rainfall time series generated by the revised microcanonical model for use in hydrology, especially hydrodynamic modelling of urban drainage networks.     

On the Tropical Atlantic SST warm bias in the Kiel Climate Model

Most of the current coupled general circulation models show a strong warm bias in the eastern Tropical Atlantic. In this paper, various sensitivity experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) are described. A largely reduced warm bias and an improved seasonal cycle in the eastern Tropical Atlantic are simulated in one particular version of KCM. By comparing the stable and well-tested standard version with the sensitivity experiments and the modified version, mechanisms contributing to the reduction of the eastern Atlantic warm bias are identified and compared to what has been proposed in literature. The error in the spring and early summer zonal winds associated with erroneous zonal precipitation seems to be the key mechanism, and large-scale coupled ocean?Catmosphere feedbacks play an important role in reducing the warm bias. Improved winds in boreal spring cause the summer cooling in the eastern Tropical Atlantic (ETA) via shoaling of the thermocline and increased upwelling, and hence reduced sea surface temperature (SST). Reduced SSTs in the summer suppress convection and favor the development of low-level cloud cover in the ETA region. Subsurface ocean structure is shown to be improved, and potentially influences the development of the bias. The strong warm bias along the southeastern coastline is related to underestimation of low-level cloud cover and the associated overestimation of surface shortwave radiation in the same region. Therefore, in addition to the primarily wind forced response at the equator both changes in surface shortwave radiation and outgoing longwave radiation contribute significantly to reduction of the warm bias from summer to fall.     

Rapid directivity detection by azimuthal amplitude spectra inversion

An early detection of the presence of rupture directivity plays a major role in the correct estimation of ground motions and risks associated to the earthquake occurrence. We present here a simple method for a fast detection of rupture directivity, which may be additionally used to discriminate fault and auxiliary planes and have first estimations of important kinematic source parameters, such as rupture length and rupture time. Our method is based on the inversion of amplitude spectra from P-wave seismograms to derive the apparent duration at each station and on the successive modelling of its azimuthal behaviour. Synthetic waveforms are built assuming a spatial point source approximation, and the finite apparent duration of the spatial point source is interpreted in terms of rupture directivity. Since synthetic seismograms for a point source are calculated very quickly, the presence of directivity may be detected within few seconds, once a focal mechanism has been derived. The method is here first tested using synthetic datasets, both for linear and planar sources, and then successfully applied to recent Mw 6.2–6.8 shallow earthquakes in Peloponnese, Greece. The method is suitable for automated application and may be used to improve kinematic waveform modelling approaches.     

Distribution of intact and core GDGTs in marine sediments

We conducted a survey of archaeal GDGT (glycerol dibiphytanyl glycerol tetraether) distributions in marine sediments deposited in a range of depositional settings. The focus was comparison of two pools presumed to have distinct geobiological significance, i.e. intact polar GDGTs (IP GDGTs) and core GDGTs (C GDGTs). The former pool has been suggested to be related to living communities of benthic archaea in marine sediments, while the latter is commonly interpreted to consist of molecular fossils from past planktonic archaeal communities that inhabited the surface ocean. Understanding the link between these two pools is important for assessment of the validity of current molecular proxies for sedimentary archaeal biomass and past sea surface temperatures. The relative distributions of GDGTs in the two pools in a core at a CH₄ rich site in the Black Sea provide evidence for in situ production of glycosidic IP GDGTs and their subsequent degradation to corresponding C GDGTs on timescales that are short in geological terms. In addition, we monitored the relationship between the IP GDGT and C GDGT pools in a sample set from various ocean basins with subseafloor depth from a few cm to 320 m and 0 to 4 Myr in age. Notable differences between the two pools can be summarized as follows: the GDGT with acyclic biphytanes, GDGT-0, and its analogues with two and three cyclopentane moieties (GDGT-2 and -3) are generally more abundant in the pool of IP GDGTs, while crenarchaeol tends to be more abundant in the C GDGT pool. Consequently, the ring index is generally higher for the C GDGTs while TEX₈₆, a molecular proxy ratio not considering the two major GDGTs, tends to be higher in the IP GDGT pool. These differences in the proportion of individual GDGTs in the two pools are probably due to in situ production of IP GDGTs with distributions differing from those of C GDGTs. Despite these differences, we observed significant correlation of these two ratios between the two pools. Specifically, in both pools TEX₈₆ is high in sediments from warm oceanic regimes and low in cold regimes. We discuss these relationships and suggest that recycling of core GDGTs by benthic archaea is an important mechanism linking both molecular pools.     

Speleothems and pine trees as sensitive indicators of environmental pollution – A case study of the effect of uranium-ore mining in Hungary

Four decades of U ore production in Hungary provides an opportunity to study the possible environmental effects of mining. The study reveals significant changes in chemical composition of a stalagmite (cave deposit). The good fit between U content changes in the studied deposit and the U ore production rate support the assumption of the relationship with mining activity. An independent chemoenviromental archive, living pine (Pinus sylvestis) trees were also investigated. Data on pine tree cores collected from the same region show different levels of pollution (Cu, Zn, Mn, U) after the 1950s and 1960s, linked to the opening of mines and subsequent dust fallout around the site. Elevated concentrations of detritally derived elements (Si, Al, Th) coupled with a rise in U concentration and change in δ²³⁴U values of the stalagmite suggest increasing amounts of mine-derived dust from 1 to 3 km distance that settled and washed into the karst system. The combined usage of different proxies not only provides historic records for the anthropogenic impact in the environment, but also allows the timing of U concentration increases within the stalagmite and the identification of elemental behavior from the pollution. This study shows that complementary geochemical archives such as stalagmites and tree rings used together can enhance understanding of past environmental contamination.     

Structural evolution of the Piqiang Fault Zone,NW Tarim Basin,China

The Piqiang Fault is a prominent strike-slip (tear) fault that laterally partitions the Keping Shan Thrust Belt in the NW Tarim Basin, China. In satellite images, the Piqiang Fault appears as a sharp, NW-trending lineament that can be traced for more than 70 km. It is oblique to the general structural trend of the thrust belt and subparallel to the thrust transport direction. This paper presents a structural analysis of the Piqiang Fault, based on satellite image interpretation and field data. A net loss of Late Paleozoic sediment across the fault zone implies that it was initiated as a major normal fault during the Early Permian, and corresponds to widespread extension and magmatism during this period. Differential erosion across the fault resulted in the subsequent removal of sediment from the east relative to the west. During the Middle to Late Cenozoic, contraction of the NW Tarim Basin and the formation of the Keping Shan Thrust Belt resulted in reactivation of the Piqiang Fault as a strike-slip (tear) fault. The fault has accommodated lateral differences in thrust density and spacing which have arisen due to the abrupt, pre-existing change in stratigraphic thickness across it. The Piqiang Fault provides an insight into the formation of oblique, strike-slip (tear) faults in contractional belts and demonstrates the importance of inherited basement structures in such settings.     

Performance of constitutive models in predicting behavior of remolded clay

The performance of several soil constitutive models was evaluated by comparing experimental results and simulated behavior of a medium plasticity clay. Input parameters for the soil constitutive models were obtained from triaxial compression and extension tests on normally and overconsolidated medium plasticity clay. The soil models employed for this study were the Cam Clay, Modified Cam Clay, 3-SKH, and S-CLAY1 models. In order to investigate the influence of some of the input parameters on the performance of the models, sensitivity analyses were also performed. The comparisons demonstrate that the Cam Clay model was able to predict the normally consolidated compressive behavior of medium plasticity clay. Both 3-SKH and Cam Clay models were able to produce acceptable predictions for stress?Cstrain and stress path behavior for overconsolidated compression of the soil. The 3-SKH model did not perform satisfactorily for predicting pore pressure variations, while the Cam Clay model demonstrated fairly acceptable predictions. For the normally consolidated reduced extension test, the Modified Cam Clay and S-CLAY1 models performed better than the Cam Clay and 3-SKH models in predicting the stress?Cstrain curve, pore pressure variations, and stress path.     

Volume and mass distribution in selected asteroid families

The main focus of this paper is calculation of the diameters of asteroids belonging to five families (Vesta, Eos, Eunomia, Koronis, and Themis). To do that, we used the HCM algorithm applied for a data set containing 292,003 numbered asteroids, and a numerical procedure for choosing the crucial parameter of the HCM, called “the cutting velocity” v_cut. It was established with a precision as high as 1 m s^?1. Thereafter, we used the WISE (Wide‐field Infrared Survey Explorer) catalog to set a range of albedo for the largest members of each family considered. The albedo data were supported by the data concerning color classification (SDSS MOC4). The asteroids with albedo out of this range were classified as interlopers and were therefore disqualified as family members. Sizes were calculated for the asteroids with albedo within the acceptable range. For the other asteroids (those chosen by means of the HCM, but with albedo not listed in the WISE), the value of albedo of the largest member of the family was adopted. Results are given in a set of figures showing the families on the planes (a, e), (a, i), (e, i). Diameters and volumes of the asteroids that are the individual members of a family were calculated on the basis of their known or assumed albedo and on their absolute magnitude. Volumes of the parent bodies of the families were found on the basis of the cumulative volume distribution of these families. We also studied the secular resonances of the family members. We have shown that the locations of members of the considered asteroid families are related to the lines of secular resonances z₁, z₂, and z₃ with Saturn.     

NGC 3109: Halo/Disk Structures in Faint Galaxies

We present here preliminary results of our wide-field study of NGC 3109: a low luminosity galaxy in the outskirts of the Local Group. Its edge-on orientation (which simplifies the study of a possible halo) and the possibility that it could, in fact, be a small spiral (the smallest in the Local Group) makes its deep analysis of major relevance to understand the properties of dwarf galaxies and the transition from dwarf irregulars to spirals. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

On the development of our knowledge of the motion of the moon around its centre of mass

This paper presents historical stages of the development of methods concerning observation and theory of the Moon's rotation around its centre of mass from the beginning of the 17th century up to the present day. The accuracy and usefulness of these methods is estimated and a critical attitude is assumed towards the results concerning the values of constants of the Moon's physical libration.