Heat as a groundwater tracer in shallow and deep heterogeneous media: Analytical solution,spreadsheet tool,and field applications

Groundwater flow advects heat, and thus, the deviation of subsurface temperatures from an expected conduction‐dominated regime can be analysed to estimate vertical water fluxes. A number of analytical approaches have been proposed for using heat as a groundwater tracer, and these have typically assumed a homogeneous medium. However, heterogeneous thermal properties are ubiquitous in subsurface environments, both at the scale of geologic strata and at finer scales in streambeds. Herein, we apply the analytical solution of Shan and Bodvarsson ( 2004 ), developed for estimating vertical water fluxes in layered systems, in 2 new environments distinct from previous vadose zone applications. The utility of the solution for studying groundwater‐surface water exchange is demonstrated using temperature data collected from an upwelling streambed with sediment layers, and a simple sensitivity analysis using these data indicates the solution is relatively robust. Also, a deeper temperature profile recorded in a borehole in South Australia is analysed to estimate deeper water fluxes. The analytical solution is able to match observed thermal gradients, including the change in slope at sediment interfaces. Results indicate that not accounting for layering can yield errors in the magnitude and even direction of the inferred Darcy fluxes. A simple automated spreadsheet tool (Flux‐LM) is presented to allow users to input temperature and layer data and solve the inverse problem to estimate groundwater flux rates from shallow (e.g., <1 m) or deep (e.g., up to 100 m) profiles. The solution is not transient, and thus, it should be cautiously applied where diel signals propagate or in deeper zones where multi‐decadal surface signals have disturbed subsurface thermal regimes.     

Hunter‐gatherer response to late Holocene climatic variability in northern and central Australia

Sum probability analysis of 1275 radiometric ages from 608 archaeological sites across northern and central Australia demonstrates a changing archaeological signature that can be closely correlated with climate variability over the last 2 ka. Results reveal a marked increase in archaeological records across northern and central Australia over the last 2 ka, with notable declines in western and northern Australia between ca. AD 700 and 1000 and post‐AD 1500 – two periods broadly coeval with the Medieval Climatic Anomaly and the Little Ice Age as they have been documented in the Asia–Pacific region. Latitudinal and longitudinal analysis of the dataset suggests the increase in archaeological footprint was continent wide, while the declines were greatest from 9 to 20° S, 110 to 135° E and 143 to 150° E. The change in the archaeological data suggests that, combined with an increase in population over the late Holocene, a disruption or reorganisation of pre‐European resource systems occurred across Australia between ca. AD 700 and 1000 and post‐AD 1500. These archaeological responses can be broadly correlated with transitions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mean state on a multi‐decadal to centennial timescale. The latter involve a shift towards the La Niña‐like mean state with wetter conditions in the Australian region between AD 700 and 1150. A transition period in ENSO mean state occurred across Australia during AD 1150–1300, with persistent El Niño‐like and drier conditions to ca. AD 1500, and increasing ENSO variability post‐AD 1500 to the present. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Truncated multiGaussian fields and effective conductance of binary media

Truncated Gaussian fields provide a flexible model for defining binary media with dispersed (as opposed to layered) inclusions. General properties of excursion sets on these truncated fields are coupled with a distance-based upscaling algorithm and approximations of point process theory to develop an estimation approach for effective conductivity in two-dimensions. Estimation of effective conductivity is derived directly from knowledge of the kernel size used to create the multiGaussian field, defined as the full-width at half maximum (FWHM), the truncation threshold and conductance values of the two modes. Therefore, instantiation of the multiGaussian field is not necessary for estimation of the effective conductance. The critical component of the effective medium approximation developed here is the mean distance between high conductivity inclusions. This mean distance is characterized as a function of the FWHM, the truncation threshold and the ratio of the two modal conductivities. Sensitivity of the resulting effective conductivity to this mean distance is examined for two levels of contrast in the modal conductances and different FWHM sizes. Results demonstrate that the FWHM is a robust measure of mean travel distance in the background medium. The resulting effective conductivities are accurate when compared to numerical results and results obtained from effective media theory, distance-based upscaling and numerical simulation.     

Hillslope response to knickpoint migration in the Southern Appalachians: implications for the evolution of post‐orogenic landscapes

The southern Appalachians represent a landscape characterized by locally high topographic relief, steep slopes, and frequent mass movement in the absence of significant tectonic forcing for at least the last 200 Ma. The fundamental processes responsible for landscape evolution in a post‐orogenic landscape remain enigmatic. The non‐glaciated Cullasaja River basin of south‐western North Carolina, with uniform lithology, frequent debris flows, and the availability of high‐resolution airborne lidar DEMs, is an ideal natural setting to study landscape evolution in a post‐orogenic landscape through the lens of hillslope–channel coupling. This investigation is limited to channels with upslope contributing areas >2.7 km², a conservative estimate of the transition from fluvial to debris‐flow dominated channel processes. Values of normalized hypsometry, hypsometric integral, and mean slope vs elevation are used for 14 tributary basins and the Cullasaja basin as a whole to characterize landscape evolution following upstream knickpoint migration. Results highlight the existence of a transient spatial relationship between knickpoints present along the fluvial network of the Cullasaja basin and adjacent hillslopes. Metrics of topography (relief, slope gradient) and hillslope activity (landslide frequency) exhibit significant downstream increases below the current position of major knickpoints. The transient effect of knickpoint‐driven channel incision on basin hillslopes is captured by measuring the relief, mean slope steepness, and mass movement frequency of tributary basins and comparing these results with the distance from major knickpoints along the Cullasaja River. A conceptual model of area–elevation and slope distributions is presented that may be representative of post‐orogenic landscape evolution in analogous geologic settings. Importantly, the model explains how knickpoint migration and channel–hillslope coupling is an important factor in tectonically‐inactive (i.e. post‐orogenic) orogens for the maintenance of significant relief, steep slopes, and weathering‐limited hillslopes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Large-Scale Surface Mass Balance of Ice Sheets from a Comprehensive Atmospheric Model

The surface mass balance for Greenland and Antarctica has been calculated using model data from an AMIP-type experiment for the period 1979?C2001 using the ECHAM5 spectral transform model at different triangular truncations. There is a significant reduction in the calculated ablation for the highest model resolution, T319 with an equivalent grid distance of ca 40?km. As a consequence the T319 model has a positive surface mass balance for both ice sheets during the period. For Greenland, the models at lower resolution, T106 and T63, on the other hand, have a much stronger ablation leading to a negative surface mass balance. Calculations have also been undertaken for a climate change experiment using the IPCC scenario A1B, with a T213 resolution (corresponding to a grid distance of some 60?km) and comparing two 30-year periods from the end of the twentieth century and the end of the twenty-first century, respectively. For Greenland there is change of 495?km³/year, going from a positive to a negative surface mass balance corresponding to a sea level rise of 1.4?mm/year. For Antarctica there is an increase in the positive surface mass balance of 285?km³/year corresponding to a sea level fall by 0.8?mm/year. The surface mass balance changes of the two ice sheets lead to a sea level rise of 7?cm at the end of this century compared to end of the twentieth century. Other possible mass losses such as due to changes in the calving of icebergs are not considered. It appears that such changes must increase significantly, and several times more than the surface mass balance changes, if the ice sheets are to make a major contribution to sea level rise this century. The model calculations indicate large inter-annual variations in all relevant parameters making it impossible to identify robust trends from the examined periods at the end of the twentieth century. The calculated inter-annual variations are similar in magnitude to observations. The 30-year trend in SMB at the end of the twenty-first century is significant. The increase in precipitation on the ice sheets follows closely the Clausius-Clapeyron relation and is the main reason for the increase in the surface mass balance of Antarctica. On Greenland precipitation in the form of snow is gradually starting to decrease and cannot compensate for the increase in ablation. Another factor is the proportionally higher temperature increase on Greenland leading to a larger ablation. It follows that a modest increase in temperature will not be sufficient to compensate for the increase in accumulation, but this will change when temperature increases go beyond any critical limit. Calculations show that such a limit for Greenland might well be passed during this century. For Antarctica this will take much longer and probably well into following centuries.     

Streamflow Modelling: A Primer on Applications,Approaches and Challenges

This article examines the current practice of streamflow modelling, a field under development for over a century. A sample of the wide range of assessment and planning applications of streamflow models is presented. The diversity in the use of these models is mirrored in the diversity of model complexity, and modelling approaches ranging from empirical to physically based and from lumped to fully distributed are described with examples. Predictions derived from hydrological models are subject to many sources of error; these are discussed along with methods for error minimization or anticipation. Model error is generally quantified using an ensemble of forecasts meant to sample the range of predictive uncertainty. This ensemble can be used to generate reliable probabilistic forecasts of hydrological quantities if all sources of error are accounted for. To date, applications of ensemble methods in streamflow forecasting have typically focused on only one or two error sources. A challenge will be to develop ensemble streamflow forecasts that sample a wider range of predictive uncertainty.

[Traduit par la rédaction] Le présent article examine la pratique actuelle en modélisation d’écoulement fluvial, un domaine qui évolue depuis plus d'un siècle. Nous présentons un échantillon de la vaste gamme d'applications d’évaluation et de planification des modèles d’écoulement fluvial. La diversité dans l'utilisation de ces modèles est le reflet de la diversité dans la complexité des modèles, et nous décrivons à l'aide d'exemples les approches de modélisation qui peuvent être empiriques ou basées sur la physique ou encore localisées ou entièrement réparties. Plusieurs sources d'erreur peuvent affecter les prévisions issues des modèles hydrologiques; nous discutons de ces sources d'erreur de même que des méthodes de réduction ou d'anticipation des erreurs. L'erreur du modèle est généralement quantifiée à l'aide d'un ensemble de prévisions servant à échantillonner la grandeur de l'incertitude prévisionnelle. Cet ensemble peut servir à produire des prévisions probabilistes fiables des grandeurs hydrologiques si toutes les sources d'erreur sont prises en compte. Jusqu’à maintenant, les applications des méthodes d'ensemble à la prévision des écoulements fluviaux n'ont généralement tenu compte que d'une ou deux sources d'erreur. Ce sera un défi de mettre au point des prévisions d'ensemble d’écoulement fluvial qui échantillonnent un plus large éventail d'incertitude prévisionnelle.     

The redistribution functionR IV

In this paper we address comments made in a recent paper by Hubený and Heinzel (1986). By use of an identity which they report, the photon redistribution function appropriate for scattering transitions between two radiation broadened atomic levels is derived using the simpler Voigt functions. The behaviour of the redistribution function relative to complete redistribution is then examined. It is important to note that the conclusions originally arrived at by McKenna (1984a) are reinforced by this examination. In particular, for most scattering angles, there exists a significant cohrently scattered component of the redistribution function, and the deviations from complete redistribution are large over most outgoing frequencies for a given incoming frequency.     

A procedure for determining the nature of Mercury's core

Abstract— We review the assertion that the precise measurement of the second degree gravitational harmonic coefficients, the obliquity, and the amplitude of the physical libration in longitude, C₂₀, C₂₂, θ, and φ₀, for Mercury are sufficient to determine whether or not Mercury has a molten core (Peale, 1976). The conditions for detecting the signature of the molten core are that such a core not follow the 88‐day physical libration of the mantle induced by periodic solar torques, but that it does follow the 250 000‐year precession of the spin axis that tracks the orbit precession within a Cassini spin state. These conditions are easily satisfied if the coupling between the liquid core and solid mantle is viscous in nature. The alternative coupling mechanisms of pressure forces on irregularities in the core‐mantle boundary (CMB), gravitational torques between an axially asymmetric mantle and an assumed axially asymmetric solid inner core, and magnetic coupling between the conducting molten core and a conducting layer in the mantle at the CMB are shown for a reasonable range of assumptions not to frustrate the first condition while making the second condition more secure. Simulations have shown that the combination of spacecraft tracking and laser altimetry during the planned MESSENGER (MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, Ranging) orbiter mission to Mercury will determine C₂₀, C₂₂, and θ to better than 1% and φ₀ to better than 8%—sufficient precision to distinguish a molten core and constrain its size. The possible determination of the latter two parameters to 1% or less with Earth‐based radar experiments and MESSENGER determination of C₂₀ and C₂₂ to 0.1% would lead to a maximum uncertainty in the ratio of the moment of inertia of the mantle to that of the whole planet, C_m/C, of ?2% with comparable precision in characterizing the extent of the molten core.     

The MESSENGER mission to Mercury: scientific objectives and implementation

Mercury holds answers to several critical questions regarding the formation and evolution of the terrestrial planets. These questions include the origin of Mercury's anomalously high ratio of metal to silicate and its implications for planetary accretion processes, the nature of Mercury's geological evolution and interior cooling history, the mechanism of global magnetic field generation, the state of Mercury's core, and the processes controlling volatile species in Mercury's polar deposits, exosphere, and magnetosphere. The MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) mission has been designed to fly by and orbit Mercury to address all of these key questions. After launch by a Delta 2925H-9.5, two flybys of Venus, and two flybys of Mercury, orbit insertion is accomplished at the third Mercury encounter. The instrument payload includes a dual imaging system for wide and narrow fields-of-view, monochrome and color imaging, and stereo; X-ray and combined gamma-ray and neutron spectrometers for surface chemical mapping; a magnetometer; a laser altimeter; a combined ultraviolet–visible and visible-near-infrared spectrometer to survey both exospheric species and surface mineralogy; and an energetic particle and plasma spectrometer to sample charged species in the magnetosphere. During the flybys of Mercury, regions unexplored by Mariner 10 will be seen for the first time, and new data will be gathered on Mercury's exosphere, magnetosphere, and surface composition. During the orbital phase of the mission, one Earth year in duration, MESSENGER will complete global mapping and the detailed characterization of the exosphere, magnetosphere, surface, and interior.