Data assimilation for a coastal area morphodynamic model: Morecambe Bay

This paper investigates the use of data assimilation in coastal area morphodynamic modelling using Morecambe Bay as a study site. A simple model of the bay has been enhanced with a data assimilation scheme to better predict large-scale changes in bathymetry observed in the bay over a 3-year period. The 2DH decoupled morphodynamic model developed for the work is described, as is the optimal interpolation scheme used to assimilate waterline observations into the model run. Each waterline was acquired from a SAR satellite image and is essentially a contour of the bathymetry at some level within the inter-tidal zone of the bay. For model parameters calibrated against validation observations, model performance is good, even without data assimilation. However the use of data assimilation successfully compensates for a particular failing of the model, and helps to keep the model bathymetry on track. It also improves the ability of the model to predict future bathymetry. Although the benefits of data assimilation are demonstrated using waterline observations, any observations of morphology could potentially be used. These results suggest that data assimilation should be considered for use in future coastal area morphodynamic models.     

The effect of tidal inlets on open coast storm surge hydrographs

Bridge scour modeling requires storm surge hydrographs as open ocean boundary conditions for coastal waters surrounding tidal inlets. These open coast storm surge hydrographs are used to accurately determine both horizontal and vertical circulation patterns, and thus scour, within the inlet and bay for an extreme event. At present, very little information is available on the effect that tidal inlets have on these open coast storm surge hydrographs. Furthermore, current modeling practice enforces a single design hydrograph along the open coast boundary for bridge scour models. This study expands on these concepts and provides a more fundamental understanding on both of these modeling areas.     

Rapid visualization of plankton abundance and taxonomic composition using the Video Plankton Recorder

Traditional methods for determining spatial distributions of planktonic taxa involve net, pump, and bottle collections followed by the tedious and time-consuming task of plankton sample analysis. Thus, plankton ecologists often require months or even years to process samples from a single study. In this paper, we present a method that allows rapid visualization of the distribution of planktonic taxa while at sea. Rapid characterization of plankton distributions is essential in the dynamic physical environment, where biological and physical patterns can change quickly. Such a “sample-and-observe” capability is necessary for mapping ephemeral features (such as patches, eddies, jets, plumes) and determining appropriate locations to conduct more localized sampling, including in situ observational studies. We describe the techniques used in imaging the plankton, analyzing the video, and visualizing the data. We present an example of at-sea data analysis conducted aboard R.V. Columbus Iselin on Georges Bank in May 1994 and visualizations of the 3-dimensional distribution of selected planktonic taxa in a 2 × 2 km × 90 m volume of seawater. A video of the image processing and visualization is included on the CD-ROM accompanying this volume and is an essential part of this paper.     

Seismic stratigraphy and subsidence analysis of the southern Brazilian margin (Campos,Santos and Pelotas basins)

The Campos, Santos and Pelotas basins have been investigated in terms of 2D seismo-stratigraphy and subsidence. The processes controlling accommodation space (e.g. eustacy, subsidence, sediment input) and the evolution of the three basins are discussed. Depositional seismic sequences in the syn-rift Barremian to the drift Holocene basin fill have been identified. In addition, the subsidence/uplift history has been numerically modeled including (i) sediment flux, (ii) sedimentary basin framework, (iii) relation to plate-tectonic reconfigurations, and (iv) mechanism of crustal extension. Although the initial rift development of the three basins is very similar, basin architecture, sedimentary infill and distribution differ considerably during the syn-rift sag to the drift basin stages. After widespread late Aptian–early Albian salt and carbonate deposition, shelf retrogradation dominated in the Campos Basin, whereas shelf progradation occurred in the Santos Basin. In the Tertiary, these basin fill styles were reversed: since the Paleogene, shelf progradation in the Campos Basin contrasts with overall retrogradation in the Santos Basin. In contrast, long-term Cretaceous–Paleogene shelf retrogradation and intense Neogene progradation characterize the Pelotas Basin. Its specific basin fill and architecture mainly resulted from the absence of salt deposition and deformation. These temporally and spatially varying successions were controlled by specific long-term subsidence/uplift trends. Onshore and offshore tectonism in the Campos and Santos basins affected the sediment flux history, distribution of the main depocenters and occurrence of hydrocarbon stratigraphic–structural traps. This is highlighted by the exhumation and erosion of the Serra do Mar, Serra da Mantiqueira and Ponta Grossa Arch in the hinterland, as well as salt tectonics in the offshore domain. The Pelotas Basin was less affected by changes in structural regimes until the Eocene, when the Andean orogeny caused uplift of the source areas. Flexural loading largely controlled its development and potential hydrocarbon traps are mainly stratigraphic.     

Characterizing Observed Environmental Variability With HF Doppler Radar Surface Current Mappers and Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers: Environmental Variability in the Coastal Ocean

A network of high-frequency (HF) radars is deployed along the New Jersey coast providing synoptic current maps across the entire shelf. These data serve a variety of user groups from scientific research to Coast Guard search and rescue. In addition, model forecasts have been shown to improve with surface current assimilation. In all applications, there is a need for better definitions and assessment of the measurement uncertainty. During a summer coastal predictive skill experiment in 2001, an array of in situ current profilers was deployed near two HF radar sites, one long-range and one standard-range system. Comparison statistics were calculated between different vertical bins on the same current profiler, between different current profilers, and between the current profilers and the different HF radars. The velocity difference in the vertical and horizontal directions were then characterized using the observed root-mean-square (rms) differences. We further focused on two cases, one with relatively high vertical variability, and the second with relatively low vertical variability. Observed differences between the top bin of the current profiler and the HF radar were influenced by both system accuracy and the environment. Using the in situ current profilers, the environmental variability over scales based on the HF radar sampling was quantified. HF radar comparisons with the current profilers were on the same order as the observed environmental difference over the same scales, indicating that the environment has a significant influence on the observed differences. Velocity variability in the vertical and horizontal directions both contribute to these differences. When the potential effects of the vertical variability could be minimized, the remaining difference between the current profiler and the HF radar was similar to the measured horizontal velocity difference (~2.5 cm/s) and below the resolution of the raw radial data at the time of the deployment     

Evaluation of Liquefaction Potential Index Along Western Coast of South Korea Using SPT and CPT

For South Korea, liquefaction potential along the western coast has not been widely assessed because South Korea is considered to be a low seismic hazard. However, recent earthquake events and historical records indicate that the seismic hazard of South Korea should not be ignored. Moreover, as artificial fills are extensively used along the western coast for development, liquefaction evaluation of the soils in this area is necessary. In this paper, we present: (1) the seismic characteristics of the study area; (2) procedures for evaluating liquefaction potential, focusing on the liquefaction potential index (LPI) approach; and (3) LPI distributions at several representative locations along the western coast of South Korea under various seismic scenarios. The liquefaction potential index represents the liquefaction potential over the upper 20 m of a boring or sounding. Using cone penetration test (CPT) and standard penetration test (SPT) data from two coastal sites, we compare and discuss CPT-based and SPT-based LPI values, particularly values computed in nonplastic, silt-rich soils. In these soils, it appears that the CPT yields lower liquefaction resistance, resulting in large LPI values. Finally, discussion and suggestions are provided for CPT- and SPT-based liquefaction assessment of low plasticity and high fines content soils.     

A SIMPLE SOIL MOISTURE INDEX TO FORECAST CROP YIELDS

Neutron probe soil moisture measurements obtained biweekly during the growing season between 1982 and 1991 from multiple depths under grass-covered plots at 17 Illinois Climate Network sites are used to forecast crop yields. A Soil Moisture Index (SMIX) that combines the effect of intensity, duration, and timing of drought or excessively wet conditions was computed by integrating the quantity of available soil moisture throughout the rooting zone over the growing season. Relationships between the SMIX values and crop yields are evaluated at county, regional, and statewide scales. Coefficients of determination (r ²) for relationships between the SMIX values and maize, soybeans, and hay yields at the statewide level are 0.88, 0.74, and 0.81, respectively, when the period of integration is terminated at the end of the growing season. This new soil index can be employed to forecast yields as early as 12 weeks before harvest for the state of Illinois. However, predictions with RMSE ≤ 10% of the mean yield can be achieved only for SMIX integration periods ending 5, 9, and 6 weeks before harvest for maize, soybeans, and hay, respectively. Nomograms are presented for using the relationships between the SMIX values and crop yields to forecast Illinois's major crops well before harvest.     

Accumulation and effects of organotin compounds in oysters and mussels: Correlation with serum biochemical and cytological factors and tissue burdens

Oysters and mussels exposed to a concentration of 0·7 ppb (μg/liter) tributyltin from painted panels in flowing seawater accumulated tin in the digestive glands to comparable levels. The mussels experienced approximately 50% mortality during the 60-day test period, but the oysters suffered virtually no deaths. There was no evidence from either bivalve of elevated numbers of hemocytes during the test period and no evidence for cellular disruption as detected by increased levels of serum lysosomal hydrolases. Serum protein of exposed mussels relative to controls increased with time of exposure to the toxicant, while oyster serum protein, normally 10 x higher than in mussels, did not. No evidence was found for elevated stress proteins (heat shock proteins) or metallothioneins in the serum hemocytes of either bivalve. Responses by these animals to fatal or near fatal doses of TBT were thus very different from responses to copper that we have reported elsewhere.^1,2     

Differential sensitivity of flounder (Platichthys flesus) in response to oestrogenic chemical exposure: an issue for design and interpretation of monitoring and research programmes

This study was conducted as an initial investigation of 'differential response' in one of the main sentinel organisms used for monitoring programmes in United Kingdom estuaries, the flounder Platichthys flesus. It has been hypothesised that monitoring using species with a wide geographical spread and limited migration, such as flounder, might result in the comparison of different genetic stocks and certainly of populations with differing early life stage contaminant exposure histories. Furthermore, it is probable that these pre-exposure and genetic differences could manifest themselves in an ability to respond differently to contaminant exposure, so-called 'differential response'. It is important that the extent and nature of this response is understood, if we want to be able to fully interpret the monitoring data from such programmes. During this study, flounder were collected from four separate sources; wild caught fish from the estuaries of the Rivers Alde, Mersey and Tyne, and farmed flounder from Port Erin Farm, Isle of Man. Under controlled laboratory conditions, groups of fish from each source were exposed to water-borne concentrations of the synthetic oestrogen ethynylestradiol (EE2) at a nominal concentration of 50 ng/l. Plasma was taken from each male fish after 6 and 10 days exposure and analysed for the presence of vitellogenin (VTG) using an ELISA technique. Significant levels of VTG induction were evident in fish from all sources after both 6 and 10 days exposure. Flounder from the Mersey were the only fish with significantly elevated initial background levels of VTG (day 0) and this appeared to be reflected in that these specimens showed the highest induction response after day 6. However, after day 10, fish from all other sites had a slightly higher mean VTG than those from the Mersey which showed significantly (p < 0.05) lower mean plasma VTG. It is suggested that other differential responses may have been masked by the use of a high dose of EE2 which produced maximum induction in nearly all fish. The findings of the study are discussed in terms of implications for further research into the differential response issue and how the initial plasma VTG figures contribute to a time-series from the Mersey, Tyne and Alde estuaries.     

Field calibration of a formula for entrance mixing of river inflows to lakes: Lake Taupo,North Island,New Zealand

Field measurements were used to validate predictions for the initial dilution of negatively buoyant, cold‐water inflows to Lake Taupo, as part of a study to quantify mixing processes associated with the two largest inflows to the lake. The predictions were made using a formulation originally derived for positively buoyant, warm‐water inflows to cooling ponds. The formulation predicts the total dilution of an inflow during its inertia‐dominated phase between its entrance to the lake and the point where buoyancy forces are great enough to cause the inflow to plunge and form a submerged density current. In one of the measured inflows, the inflowing jet was free to entrain from both sides; in the other, entrainment was restricted on one side by attachment of the inflowing jet to the shoreline of a bay just upstream of the plunge point. In the former example, the unmodified coefficients from the cooling pond formulation provided an excellent prediction of initial dilution. In the latter example, entrainment was reduced and different coefficients were derived. In both examples the inflows remained attached to the lake bed throughout their course until their liftoff at depths of 45–55 m to form interflows. The difference between coefficients for the two inflows indicates that the coefficient values should be considered site‐specific. The formulation is not valid for inflows that separate from the bottom of the inflow channel before plunging. The entrance mixing formulation was incorporated in a more general model of lake stratification, DYRESM, which already includes a well‐documented routine for routing underflows down submerged channels on the bed of a lake. Application of the model to the inflows measured in Lake Taupo gave good results for two model outputs that were not involved in the calibration of the entrance mixing formulation, but that are affected by the result of the initial dilution calculation—the temperatures in the river plume after it has plunged, and the insertion depth.