Diagnostics of subseasonal prediction biases of the Asian summer monsoon by the NCEP climate forecast system

Biases of subseasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon are diagnosed using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2. The retrospective forecasts often show apparent systematic biases, which are mostly represented by the underestimation of the whole Asian monsoon. Biases depend not only on lead time, but also on the stage of monsoon evolution. An abrupt turning point of bias development appears around late June and early July, when ensemble spread and bias growth of winds and precipitation show a significant change over the northwestern Pacific (NWP) and the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) region. The abrupt turning of bias development of winds, precipitation, and surface temperature is also captured by the first two modes of multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis. Several features appear associated with the abrupt change in bias development: the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) begins its first northward jump and the surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau commences a transition from warm bias to cold bias, and a reversal of surface temperature biases occurs in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and the SASM region. The shift of WPSH position and the transition of surface thermal bias show close relationships with the formation of bias centers in winds and precipitation. The rapid growth in bias due to the strong internal atmospheric variability during short leads seems to mainly account for the weak WPSH and SASM in the model. However, at certain stages, particularly for longer-lead predictions, the biases of slowly varying components may also play an important role in bias development of winds and precipitation.     

Thirteen plus one: a comparison of global climate policy architectures

We critically review the Kyoto Protocol and thirteen alternative policy architectures for addressing the threat of global climate change. We employ six criteria to evaluate the policy proposals: environmental outcome, dynamic efficiency, cost-effectiveness, equity, flexibility in the presence of new information, and incentives for participation and compliance. The Kyoto Protocol does not fare well on a number of criteria, but none of the alternative proposals fare well along all six dimensions. We identify several major themes among the alternative proposals: Kyoto is “too little, too fast”; developing countries (DCs) should play a more substantial role and receive incentives to participate; implementation should focus on market-based approaches, especially those with price mechanisms; and participation and compliance incentives are inadequately addressed by most proposals. Our investigation reveals tensions among several of the evaluative criteria, such as between environmental outcome and efficiency, and between cost-effectiveness and incentives for participation and compliance.     

Particle aggregation in microgravity: Informal experiments on the International Space Station

We conducted experiments in space to investigate the aggregation of millimeter‐ and submillimeter‐sized particles in microgravity, an important early step in planet formation. Particulate materials included salt (NaCl), sugar (sucrose), coffee, mica, ice, Bjurböle chondrules, ordinary and carbonaceous chondrite meteorite fragments, and acrylic and glass beads, all triply confined in clear plastic containers. Angular submillimeter particles rapidly and spontaneously formed clusters strong enough to survive turbulence in a protoplanetary nebula. Smaller particles generally aggregated more strongly and quickly than larger ones. We observed only a weak dependence of aggregation time on particle number density. We observed no strong dependence on composition. Round, smooth particles aggregated weakly or not at all. In a mixture of particle types, some phases aggregated more readily than others, creating selection effects that controlled the composition of the growing clumps. The physical process of aggregation appears to be electrostatic in nature.     

X-Ray Line Transfer in Plasmas with Large Velocity Gradients

An astrophysically relevant experiment is compared to the output of a multidimensional radiation transfer code in which populations and radiation are self-consistently treated. Experimental Al Ly α spectra obtained with a very high-resolution spectrometer are presented as quantitative evidence of dot plasma non-planar expansion. Analysis of these spectra using the code is performed, in particular examining the effects of velocity gradients in directions other than that of the primary expansion. These calculations are found to be in good agreement with the experimental results. Usage of the Ly α doublet as a planarity diagnostic is discussed.     

NIGHTGLOW: an instrument to measure the Earth’s nighttime ultraviolet glow—results from the first engineering flight

We have designed and built an instrument to measure and monitor the “nightglow” of the Earth’s atmosphere in the near ultraviolet (NUV). In this paper we describe the design of this instrument, called NIGHTGLOW. NIGHTGLOW is designed to be flown from a high altitude research balloon, and circumnavigate the globe. NIGHTGLOW is a NASA, University of Utah, and New Mexico State University project. A test flight took place from Palestine, Texas on July 5, 2000, lasting about 8 h. The instrument performed well and landed safely in Stiles, Texas with little damage. The resulting measurements of the NUV nightglow are compared with previous measurements from sounding rockets and balloons.     

Fossil hyrax dung and evidence of Late Pleistocene and Holocene vegetation types in the Namib Desert

Pollen was derived from fossil dung of herbivorous hyraxes, deposited in a rock shelter on the highest mountain in Namibia, Dâures or Brandberg, situated on the Namib Desert margin. Radiocarbon dating ranging in age between modern times and 30 000 yr BP showed it represents the first empirical pollen evidence of continental palaeovegetation during the Late Pleistocene along the western escarpment of southern Africa. The initial results indicate Last Glacial Maximum vegetation differed totally from the current pattern as vegetation types were dominated by small Asteraceae shrubs, in contrast to those of the Holocene and modern times which show more succulents, grass and woody elements (arboreal pollen). The results suggest that Cape floral communities did not reach into the tropics along the western escarpment of Africa, despite such pollen types occurring in marine cores. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.