The eastward shift of the Walker Circulation in response to global warming and its relationship to ENSO variability

This study investigates the global warming response of the Walker Circulation and the other zonal circulation cells (represented by the zonal stream function), in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models. The changes in the mean state are presented as well as the changes in the modes of variability. The mean zonal circulation weakens in the multi model ensembles nearly everywhere along the equator under both the RCP4.5 and SRES A1B scenarios. Over the Pacific the Walker Circulation also shows a significant eastward shift. These changes in the mean circulation are very similar to the leading mode of interannual variability in the tropical zonal circulation cells, which is dominated by El Niño Southern Oscillation variability. During an El Niño event the circulation weakens and the rising branch over the Maritime Continent shifts to the east in comparison to neutral conditions (vice versa for a La Niña event). Two-thirds of the global warming forced trend of the Walker Circulation can be explained by a long-term trend in this interannual variability pattern, i.e. a shift towards more El Niño-like conditions in the multi-model mean under global warming. Further, interannual variability in the zonal circulation exhibits an asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events. El Niño anomalies are located more to the east compared with La Niña anomalies. Consistent with this asymmetry we find a shift to the east of the dominant mode of variability of zonal stream function under global warming. All these results vary among the individual models, but the multi model ensembles of CMIP3 and CMIP5 show in nearly all aspects very similar results, which underline the robustness of these results. The observed data (ERA Interim reanalysis) from 1979 to 2012 shows a westward shift and strengthening of the Walker Circulation. This is opposite to what the results in the CMIP models reveal. However, 75 % of the trend of the Walker Circulation can again be explained by a shift of the dominant mode of variability, but here towards more La Niña-like conditions. Thus in both climate change projections and observations the long-term trends of the Walker Circulation seem to follow to a large part the pre-existing dominant mode of internal variability.     

On the Nature of the Transition Between Roll and Cellular Organization in the Convective Boundary Layer

Both observational and numerical studies of the convective boundary layer (CBL) have demonstrated that when surface heat fluxes are small and mean wind shear is strong, convective updrafts tend to organize into horizontal rolls aligned within 10–20\(^\circ \) of the geostrophic wind direction. However, under large surface heat fluxes and weak to negligible shear, convection tends to organize into open cells, similar to turbulent Rayleigh-Bénard convection. Using a suite of 14 large-eddy simulations (LES) spanning a range of \(-z_i/L\) between zero (neutral) and 1041 (highly convective), where \(z_i\) is the CBL depth and L is the Obukhov length, the transition between roll- and cellular-type convection is investigated systematically for the first time using LES. Mean vertical profiles including velocity variances and turbulent transport efficiencies, as well the “roll factor,” which characterizes the rotational symmetry of the vertical velocity field, indicate the transition occurs gradually over a range of \(-z_i/L\); however, the most significant changes in vertical profiles and CBL organization occur from near-neutral conditions up to about \(-z_i/L \approx \) 15–20. Turbulent transport efficiencies and quadrant analysis are used to characterize the turbulent transport of momentum and heat with increasing \(-z_i/L\). It is found that turbulence transports heat efficiently from weakly to highly convective conditions; however, turbulent momentum transport becomes increasingly inefficient as \(-z_i/L\) increases.     

Some observations and characteristics of lightning ground discharges in southern Ontario

Abstract

Lightning ground flash and stroke observations were made with a single‐station gated, wideband magnetic direction‐finding system with a nominal range of 180 km located in Southern Ontario during the May‐September lightning‐active seasons of 1982 and 1983. Information was recorded on the azimuth of arrival, time, amplitude, stroke multiplicity and order, and polarity. The local climatology and seasonal statistics of lightning are analysed and summarized, and compared with standard observations of thunderstorm days and hours. Regional daily flashing rates and extremes for periods of 5 to 60 min were found to have a good empirical relationship. About 15% of the flashes had multiple strokes, generally less than 10 but with as many as 14 strokes. About 8% of the flashes were positive discharges; 3% of these were multistroke with no more than 2 strokes.

The lightning activity exhibits well defined diurnal peaks in the afternoon and at night 1–3 h before sunrise. The time interval between strokes was found to have a lognormal distribution with modal and median values of 60 and 75 ms, respectively, and no significant dependence on the order of stroke. The stroke‐to‐stroke amplitude changes within the same flash show that subsequent stroke amplitudes are often greater than the first. Subsequent strokes follow many patterns of change, the most common being an amplitude oscillating with ascending stroke order. The multistroke flash duration median values rose from about 80 ms for 2‐stroke flashes to about 650 ms for 8‐stroke flashes.

Under certain assumptions of system detection efficiency and range limits a regional ground flash density of 1.62 and 2.44 km^?2 a^?1 was estimated for the two years.     

The 16th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate and 6th Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere Meeting

1. Overview In June 2021, the 16th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate (WAMC) and the 6th Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) Meeting (http://polarmet.osu.edu/WAMC;021/) were held online and hosted by the Polar Meteorology Group at Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus,Ohio (Fig. 1).     

Mapping a Brine Plume Using Surface Geophysical Methods in Conjunction with Ground Water Quality Data

Oil field brine was applied to a gravel roadbed at an instrumented study site in Newark, Ohio, to simulate the use of brine as a deicer on roads in certain areas of Ohio. Brine was applied on a weekly basis eight times during the winter of 1988 as part of the deicing simulation. Eleven wells were installed at the site prior to brine application to permit collection of ground water quality samples. Surface geophysical methods — electrical resistivity and electromagnetic conductivity — were used to map the resulting brine plume. The accuracy of the methods was evaluated by comparing geophysical and ground water quality data. The presence of brine in ground water resulted in a decrease in resistivity and an increase in conductivity. Specific conductance measured in the field was used as a general indicator of the presence of the brine plume in ground water. Chloride concentration was an indicator of brine in the ground water. Results of the surface geophysical surveys correlated best with chloride and dissolved solids concentrations, and with specific conductance in ground water. The surface geophysical methods were found to be useful for qualitative interpretations of ground water quality changes resulting from the application of brine on roads.     

Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia?

Millions of people in the geopolitically important region of Central Asia depend on water from snow- and glacier-melt driven international rivers, most of all the Syr Darya and Amu Darya. The riparian countries of these rivers have experienced recurring water allocation conflicts ever since the Soviet Union collapsed. Will climate change exacerbate water stress and thus conflicts? We have developed a coupled climate, land-ice and rainfall-runoff model for the Syr Darya to quantify impacts and show that climatic changes are likely to have consequences on runoff seasonality due to earlier snow-melt. This will increase water stress in unregulated catchments because less water will be available for irrigation in the summer months. Threats from geohazards, above all glacier lake outbursts, are likely to increase as well. The area at highest risk is the densely populated, agriculturally productive, and politically unstable Fergana Valley. Targeted infrastructural developments will be required in the region. If the current mismanagement of water and energy resources can be replaced with more effective resource allocation mechanisms through the strengthening of transboundary institutions, Central Asia will be able to successfully address these future climate-related challenges.     

Thirteen plus one: a comparison of global climate policy architectures

We critically review the Kyoto Protocol and thirteen alternative policy architectures for addressing the threat of global climate change. We employ six criteria to evaluate the policy proposals: environmental outcome, dynamic efficiency, cost-effectiveness, equity, flexibility in the presence of new information, and incentives for participation and compliance. The Kyoto Protocol does not fare well on a number of criteria, but none of the alternative proposals fare well along all six dimensions. We identify several major themes among the alternative proposals: Kyoto is “too little, too fast”; developing countries (DCs) should play a more substantial role and receive incentives to participate; implementation should focus on market-based approaches, especially those with price mechanisms; and participation and compliance incentives are inadequately addressed by most proposals. Our investigation reveals tensions among several of the evaluative criteria, such as between environmental outcome and efficiency, and between cost-effectiveness and incentives for participation and compliance.     

Targeting carbon dioxide removal in the European Union

In principle, many climate policymakers have accepted that large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is necessary to meet the Paris Agreement’s mitigation targets, but they have avoided proposing by whom CDR might be delivered. Given its role in international climate policy, the European Union (EU) might be expected to lead the way. But among EU climate policymakers so far there is little talk on CDR, let alone action. Here we assess how best to ‘target’ CDR to motivate EU policymakers exploring which CDR target strategy may work best to start dealing with CDR on a meaningful scale. A comprehensive CDR approach would focus on delivering the CDR volumes required from the EU by 2100, approximately at least 50 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO₂, according to global model simulations aiming to keep warming below 2°C. A limited CDR approach would focus on an intermediate target to deliver the CDR needed to reach ‘net zero emissions’ (i.e. the gross negative emissions needed to offset residual positive emissions that are too expensive or even impossible to mitigate). We argue that a comprehensive CDR approach may be too intimidating for EU policymakers. A limited CDR approach that only addresses the necessary steps to reach the (intermediate) target of ‘net zero emissions’ is arguably more achievable, since it is a better match to the existing policy paradigm and would allow for a pragmatic phase-in of CDR while avoiding outright resistance by environmental NGOs and the broader public.

Key policy insights

• Making CDR an integral part of EU climate policy has the potential to significantly reshape the policy landscape.

• Burden sharing considerations would probably play a major role, with comprehensive CDR prolonging the disparity and tensions between progressives and laggards.

• Introducing limited CDR in the context of ‘net zero’ pathways would retain a visible primary focus on decarbonization but acknowledge the need for a significant enhancement of removals via ‘natural’ and/or ‘engineered’ sinks.

• A decarbonization approach that intends to lead to a low level of ‘residual emissions’ (to be tackled by a pragmatic phase-in of CDR) should be the priority of EU climate policy.