Present patterns of decelerating–accelerating seismic strain in South Japan

Decelerating generation of preshocks in a narrow (seismogenic) region and accelerating generation of other preshocks in a broader (critical) region, called decelerating–accelerating seismic strain (D-AS) model has been proposed as appropriate for intermediate-term earthquake prediction. An attempt is made in the present work to identify such seismic strain patterns and estimate the corresponding probably ensuing large mainshocks (M ≥ 7.0) in south Japan (30–38° N, 130–138° E). Two such patterns have been identified and the origin time, magnitude, and epicenter coordinates for each of the two corresponding probably ensuing mainshocks have been estimated. Model uncertainties of predicted quantities are also given to allow an objective forward testing of the efficiency of the model for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.     

Current accelerating seismic excitation along the northern boundary of the Aegean microplate

According to previous observations [Geophys. Res. Lett. 27 (2000) 3957], the generation of large (M≥7.0) earthquakes in the western part of the north Anatolian fault system (Marmara Sea) is followed by strong earthquakes along the Northern Boundary of the Aegean microplate (NAB: northwestermost Anatolia–northern Aegean–central Greece–Ionian islands). Therefore, it can be hypothesized that a seismic excitation along this boundary should be expected after the occurrence of the Izmit 1999 earthquake (M=7.6). We have applied the method of accelerating seismic crustal deformation, which is based on concepts of critical point dynamics in an attempt to locate more precisely those regions along the NAB where seismic excitation is more likely to occur. For this reason, a detailed parametric grid search of the broader NAB area was performed for the identification of accelerating energy release behavior.Three such elliptical critical regions have been identified with centers along this boundary. The first region, (A), is centered in the eastern part of this boundary (40.2°N, 27.2°E: southwest of Marmara), the second region, (B), has a center in the middle part of the boundary (38.8°N, 23.4°E: East Central Greece) and the third region, (C), in the westernmost part of the boundary (38.2°N, 20.9°E: Ionian Islands). The study of the time variation of the cumulative Benioff strain in two of the three identified regions (A and B) revealed that intense accelerating seismicity is observed especially after the occurrence of the 1999 Izmit mainshock. Therefore, it can be suggested that the seismic excitation, at least in these two regions, has been triggered by the Izmit mainshock.Estimations of the magnitudes and origin times of the expected mainshocks in these three critical regions have also been performed, assuming that the accelerating seismicity in these regions will lead to a critical point, that is, to the generation of mainshocks.     

A Forward Test of the Precursory Decelerating and Accelerating Seismicity Model for California

Accelerating strain energy released by the generation of intermediate magnitude preshocks in a broad (critical) region, and decelerating energy released in a narrower (seismogenic) region, is considered as a distinct premonitory pattern useful in research for intermediate-term earthquake prediction. Accelerating seismicity in the broad region is satisfactorily interpreted by the critical earthquake model and decelerating seismicity in the narrower region is attributed to stress relaxation due to pre-seismic sliding. To facilitate the identification of such patterns an algorithm has been developed on the basis of data concerning accelerating and decelerating preshock sequences of globally distributed already occurred strong mainshocks. This algorithm is applied in the present work to identify regions, which are currently in a state of accelerating seismic deformation and are associated with corresponding narrower regions, which are in a state of decelerating seismic deformation in California. It has been observed that a region which includes known faults in central California is in a state of decelerating seismic strain release, while the surrounding region (south and north California, etc.) is in a state of accelerating seismic strain release. This pattern corresponds to a big probably oncoming mainshock in central California. The epicenter, magnitude and origin time, as well as the corresponding model uncertainties of this probably ensuing big mainshock have been estimated, allowing a forward testing of the model's efficiency for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.     

Seismicity of western Macedonia, Greece

The seismicity of western Macedonia is examined in the present paper. On the basis of historical information as well as on instrumental data it is found that this area is characterized by low seismicity. The focal region of the Grevena-Kozani 1995 earthquake exhibits the highest seismicity in terms of probabilities for the generation of strong (M_s ≥ 6.0) earthquakes in a period of fifty years. Two other regions with relatively high seismicity were also distinguished (west of Edessa and around Prespes lakes). Accurate determination of focal parameters of all earthquakes occurred in the area during October 1975-April 1995, by the use of a 3-D crustal model shows that the seismic activity is related to the graben structures of the studied area. Finally, evidence is presented that the triggering of the 1995 earthquake may be related to the impoundment of the Polyfytos artificial lake.     

Multifractal Analysis of the Arnea,Greece Seismicity with Potential Implications for Earthquake Prediction

Two-dimensional multifractal analysis is performed in a seismic area of Northern Greece responsible for recent strong earthquakes, including the Arnea sequence of May 1995, culminating in a M_w 5.3 event on 4/5/1995. It is found that multifractality gradually increases prior to the major seismic activity and that declusterization replaces clusterization not long before its initialization. The fractal dimensions D(q) (q > 0) abruptly drop for aftershocks, reflecting their very strong spatial clustering. The observed seismicity patterns seem to be compatible with a percolation process. Before the main sequence, the fractal dimension is consistently in the range 1.67–1.96 (standard deviation included). Percolation theory predicts 1.9 for 2D percolation clusters and 1.8 for the backbone of 3D percolation clusters. If the observed gradual increase in multifractality is due to multifractality reaching a maximum prior to the major slip (percolation), this may enable us to roughly estimate its time of occurrence.     

Accelerating seismic crustal deformation before strong mainshocks in Adriatic and its importance for earthquake prediction

Time accelerating Benioff strain releasebefore the mainshock has been observed inall five cases of strong (M > 6.0) shallowmainshocks, which have occurred during thelast four decades in the area surroundingthe Adriatic Sea. This observation supportsthe idea that strong mainshocks arepreceded by accelerating seismic crustaldeformation due to the generation ofintermediate magnitude shocks (preshocks).It is further shown that the values ofparameters calculated from these datafollow appropriately modified relations,which have previously been proposed asadditional constraints to the criticalearthquake model and to the correspondingmethod of intermediate term earthquakeprediction. Thus, these results show thatthe identification of regions wheretime-accelerating Benioff strain followssuch constraints may lead to usefulinformation concerning the epicenter,magnitude and origin time of oncomingstrong mainshocks in this area. Theprocedure for identification of thetime-acceleration is validated byappropriate application on synthetic butrealistic random catalogues. Largerdimension of critical regions in Adriaticcompared to such regions in the Aegean isattributed to an order of magnitude smallerseismic deformation of the crust in theformer in comparison to the latter.