Assessing future changes in seasonal climatic extremes in the Ganges river basin using an ensemble of regional climate models

Using an ensemble of four high resolution (~25 km) regional climate models, this study analyses the future (2021–2050) spatial distribution of seasonal temperature and precipitation extremes in the Ganges river basin based on the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The model validation results (1989–2008) show that the models simulate seasonality and spatial distribution of extreme temperature events better than precipitation. The models are able to capture fine topographical detail in the spatial distribution of indices based on their ability to resolve processes at a higher regional resolution. Future simulations of extreme temperature indices generally agree with expected warming in the Ganges basin, with considerable seasonal and spatial variation. Significantly warmer summers in the central part of the basin along with basin-wide increase in night temperature are expected during the summer and monsoon months. An increase in heavy precipitation indices during monsoon, coupled with extended periods without precipitation during the winter months; indicates an increase in the incidence of extreme events.     

Combining climatological and participatory approaches for assessing changes in extreme climatic indices at regional scale

This paper combines the climatological and societal perspectives for assessing future climatic extremes over Kangasabati River basin in India using an ensemble of four high resolution (25 km) regional climate model (RCM) simulations from 1970 to 2050. The relevant extreme indices and their thresholds are defined in consultation with stakeholders and are then compared using RCM simulations. To evaluate the performance of RCM in realistically representing atmospheric processes in the basin, model simulations driven with ERAInterim global re-analysis data from 1989 to 2008 are compared with observations. The models perform well in simulating seasonality, interannual variability and climatic extremes. Future climatic extremes are evaluated based on RCM simulations driven by GCMs, for present (1970–1999) and for the SRES A1B scenario for future (2021–2050) period. The analysis shows an intensification of majority of extremes as projected by future ensemble mean. The study suggests that there is a marked consistency in stakeholder observed changes in climate extremes and future predicted trends.     

On the contribution of nearby sources to the observed cosmic ray nuclei

The presence of nearby discrete cosmic ray (CR) sources can lead to many interesting effects on the observed properties of CRs. In this paper, we study about the possible effects on the CR primary and secondary spectra and also the subsequent effects on the CR secondary-to-primary ratios. For the study, we assume that CRs undergo diffusive propagation in the Galaxy and we neglect the effect of convection, energy losses and reacceleration. In our model, we assume that there exists a uniform and continuous distribution of CR sources in the Galaxy generating a stationary CR background at the Earth. In addition, we also consider the existence of some nearby sources which inject CRs in a discrete space–time model. Assuming a constant CR source power throughout the Galaxy, our study has found that the presence of nearby supernova remnants (SNRs) produces noticeable variations in the primary fluxes mainly above ∼100 GeV n⁻¹, if CRs are assumed to be released instantaneously after the supernova explosion. The variation reaches a value of ∼45 per cent at around 10⁵ GeV n⁻¹. Respect to earlier studies, the variation in the case of the secondaries is found to be almost negligible. We also discuss about the possible effects of the different particle release times from the SNRs. For the particle release time of ∼10⁵ yr, predicted by the diffusive shock acceleration theories in SNRs, we have found that the presence of the nearby SNRs hardly produces any significant effects on the CRs at the Earth.     

Pseudo-Static Analysis of Soil Nailed Excavations

In this paper, a pseudo-static analysis has been presented to investigate the stability of soil nailed vertical/nearly vertical excavations. The failure surface is assumed as the arc of log-spiral passing through the toe of the excavation and intersecting the ground at right angle. The horizontal and vertical seismic forces are taken in terms of horizontal and vertical seismic coefficients. The internal failure mode of the nailed cut is considered either by pull-out or rupture or excessive bending whichever is critical. Expression for the factor of safety is derived using moment equilibrium method. Results have been arranged in tabular form considering ranges of the design parameters usually occur in practice. A typical table for the design of nailed excavation with driven nails is presented in the paper. Analytical results have been compared with the findings of model tests and reasonably good agreement has been observed.     

Mathematical analysis of a chaotic model in relevance to monsoon ISO

Mathematical analysis of a predominantly bimodal chaotic attractor, Lu system, was carried out to investigate a possible application of the model as a prototype of monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO). Bifurcation structures of the system are explored as the system parameter c and the forcing parameter F are varied. Stability criteria of equilibrium points of the forced Lu system are also explored in detail. A sensitivity study is carried out, by changing forcing parameter F, to explore relationships between some of the derived variables of the model and, based on such relationships, an empirical rule is used for extended range prediction. Analogous variables are also derived from the ISO data and prediction results are compared. Application of the prediction rule of regime transition to the observed ISO and chaotic model data is purely based on the bimodal characteristics of ISO and neglects some of the intricate mechanisms therein. We have found that a forced Lu system can be a good prototype in the prediction of peak anomaly of the monsoon ISO when growth rates around a threshold value are taken as predictors.     

Characterizing atmospheric surface layer turbulence using chaotic return map analysis

Nonlinear time series analysis methods are used to investigate the dynamics of mechanical and convective turbulences in the atmospheric surface layer flow. Using dynamical invariant analysis (e.g. correlation dimension, Lyapunov exponent and mutual information) along with recurrence quantification analysis (e.g. recurrent rate, determinism, average diagonal length of recurrence plot, etc.) of the vertical wind component data, it is confirmed that a convective turbulence is a lower order manifold in its phase space exhibiting higher degree of organization than a mechanical turbulence. Applying a quasi-one-dimensional chaotic return map technique, the topological differences between the mechanical and convective turbulences are explored. These quasi-one-dimensional return maps are produced using the local maxima of the first principal component of the reconstructed turbulence data. A comparison of the probability distribution of the local maxima of a forced Lorenz model with the turbulence data indicates the possible existence of a stable fixed point for both type of turbulences. Furthermore, dynamically the mechanical turbulence is found to resemble an unforced Lorenz model whereas the convective turbulence resembles a forced Lorenz model.     

Computational modeling in biohydrodynamics: trends, challenges, and recent advances

Computational modeling is assuming increased significance in the area of biohydrodynamics. This trend has been enabled primarily by the widespread availability of powerful computers, as well as the induction of novel numerical and modeling approaches. However, despite these recent advances, computational modeling of flows in complex biohydrodynamic configurations remains a challenging proposition. This is due to a multitude of factors, including the need to handle a wide range of flow conditions (laminar, transitional, and turbulent), the ubiquity of two-way coupled interaction between the fluid and moving/deformable structures, and, finally, the requirement of accurately resolving unsteady flow features. Recently, as part of an Office of Naval Research sponsored review, the objective of which was to distill the science related to biology-based hydrodynamics for maneuvering and propulsion, an extensive survey of computational biohydrodynamics was undertaken. The key findings of this survey are reported in this paper.     

Biorobotic AUV maneuvering by pectoral fins: inverse control design based on CFD parameterization

Biologically inspired maneuvering of autonomous undersea vehicles (AUVs) in the dive plane using pectoral-like oscillating fins is considered. Computational fluid dynamics are used to parameterize the forces generated by a mechanical flapping foil, which attempts to mimic the pectoral fin of a fish. Since the oscillating fins produce periodic force and moment of a variety of wave shapes, the essential characteristics of these signals are captured in their Fourier expansions. Maneuvering of the biorobotic AUV in the dive plane is accomplished by periodically altering the bias angle of the oscillating fin. Based on a discrete-time AUV model, an inverse control system for the dive-plane control is derived. It is shown that, in the closed-loop system, the inverse control system accomplishes accurate tracking of the prescribed time-varying depth trajectories and the segments of the intersample depth trajectory remain close to the discrete-time reference trajectory. The results show that the fins located away from the center of mass toward the nose of the vehicle provide better maneuverability.