Triggering transformative change: a development path approach to climate change response in communities

While climate change action plans are becoming more common, it is still unclear whether communities have the capacity, tools, and targets in place to trigger the transformative levels of change required to build fundamentally low-carbon, resilient, healthy communities. Evidence increasingly supports the finding that this transformation is not triggered by climate policy alone, but rather is shaped by a broad array of decisions and practices that are rooted in underlying patterns of development. Even so, these findings have rarely penetrated the domain of practice, which often remains squarely focused on a relatively narrow set of climate-specific policies. This article builds a conceptual framework for understanding the dynamics of community-level development path transformations that may both dramatically reduce GHG emissions and significantly enhance community resilience. This framework illuminates eight critical enablers of innovation on climate change, each of which is illustrated by compelling examples of community-level experimentation on climate change across the province of British Columbia, Canada. It is concluded that community-based climate (or sustainability) policy might be more likely to trigger development path shifts if it employs a longer time horizon, recognition of adaptability and feedbacks, integrated decision making, and systems thinking.     

Do asymmetries in ENSO predictability arise from different recharged states?

Climate Dynamics - Prospects for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability at long lead-times lie in the subsurface oceanic memory along the equatorial Pacific. Long considered...     

The 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes: context and cause of injury

The aim of this study was to investigate causes of injury during the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes. Data on patients injured during the Darfield (4 September 2010) and Christchurch (22 February 2011) earthquakes were sourced from the New Zealand Accident Compensation Corporation. The total injury burden was analyzed for demography, context of injury, causes of injury, and injury type. Injury context was classified as direct (shaking of the primary earthquake or aftershocks causing unavoidable injuries), action (movement of person during the primary earthquake or aftershocks causing potentially avoidable injuries), and secondary (cause of injury after shaking ceased). Nine categories of injury cause were identified. Three times as many people were injured in the Christchurch earthquake as in the Darfield earthquake (7,171 vs. 2,256). The primary shaking caused approximately two-thirds of the injuries from both quakes. Actions during the primary shaking and aftershocks led to many injuries (51.3 % Darfield and 19.4 % Christchurch). Primary direct caused the highest proportion of injuries during the daytime Christchurch quake (43.6 %). Many people were injured after shaking stopped in both events: 499 (22.1 % Darfield) and 1,881 (26.2 % Christchurch). Most of these people were injured during clean-up (320 (14.2 %) Darfield; 622 (8.7 %) Christchurch). In both earthquakes, more females than males (1,453 vs. 803 Darfield; 4,646 vs. 2,525 Christchurch) were injured (except by masonry, damaged ground, and during clean-up); trip/fall (27.9 % Darfield; 26.1 % Christchurch) was the most common cause of injury; and soft tissue injuries (74.1 % Darfield; 70.4 % Christchurch) was the most common type of injury. This study demonstrated that where people were and their actions during and after earthquakes influenced their risk of injury.     

Probabilistic GIS-based method for delineation of urban flooding risk hotspots

Identifying urban flooding risk hotspots is one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk assessment and mitigation. This work employs three GIS-based frameworks for identifying urban flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings and urban corridors. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas and urban corridors [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. A maximum likelihood method (MLE) is employed for estimating the threshold used for identifying the flood-prone areas (the TWI threshold) based on the inundation profiles calculated for various return periods within a given spatial window. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter estimation is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold based on inundation profiles calculated for more than one spatial window. For different statistics of the TWI threshold (e.g. MLE estimate, 16th percentile, 50th percentile), the map of the potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of urban morphology units, identified as residential and urban corridors, in order to delineate the urban hotspots for both UMT. Moreover, information related to population density is integrated by overlaying geo-spatial census datasets in order to estimate the number of people affected by flooding. Differences in exposure characteristics have been assessed for a range of different residential types. As a demonstration, urban flooding risk hotspots are delineated for different percentiles of the TWI value for the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.     

High-resolution vertical profiles of groundwater electrical conductivity (EC) and chloride from direct-push EC logs

Elevated groundwater salinity associated with produced water, leaching from landfills or secondary salinity can degrade arable soils and potable water resources. Direct-push electrical conductivity (EC) profiling enables rapid, relatively inexpensive, high-resolution in-situ measurements of subsurface salinity, without requiring core collection or installation of groundwater wells. However, because the direct-push tool measures the bulk EC of both solid and liquid phases (EC_a), incorporation of EC_a data into regional or historical groundwater data sets requires the prediction of pore water EC (EC_w) or chloride (Cl^?) concentrations from measured EC_a. Statistical linear regression and physically based models for predicting EC_w and Cl^? from EC_a profiles were tested on a brine plume in central Saskatchewan, Canada. A linear relationship between EC_a/EC_w and porosity was more accurate for predicting EC_w and Cl^? concentrations than a power-law relationship (Archie’s Law). Despite clay contents of up to 96%, the addition of terms to account for electrical conductance in the solid phase did not improve model predictions. In the absence of porosity data, statistical linear regression models adequately predicted EC_w and Cl^? concentrations from direct-push EC_a profiles (EC_w = 5.48 EC_a + 0.78, R ² = 0.87; Cl^? = 1,978 EC_a – 1,398, R ² = 0.73). These statistical models can be used to predict EC_w in the absence of lithologic data and will be particularly useful for initial site assessments. The more accurate linear physically based model can be used to predict EC_w and Cl^? as porosity data become available and the site-specific EC_w–Cl^? relationship is determined.     

Underwater video reveals decreased activity of rocky intertidal snails during high tides and cooler days

Nearly all of our understanding of rocky inter‐tidal ecology comes from studies conducted at low tide. To study inter‐tidal organisms at high tide, we anchored waterproof digital GoPro^® video cameras in wave‐exposed tidepools and recorded the daytime movements of the black turban snail, Tegula funebralis, over the tidal cycle between May and August 2012 near Bodega Bay, California. Overall, snails moved more quickly and presumably foraged more during low tides and on days with warmer air and perhaps water temperatures. This is similar to other ectotherms that exhibit increased metabolic rates, movement and foraging in warmer conditions. Snails also moved less during flood and high tides, may have moved downward in tidepools at flood tides, and showed evidence of reduced activity on days with larger waves. This inactivity and refuge seeking may have been a strategy to avoid dislodgment by waves. Analysis of snail trajectories showed foraging bouts indicated by alternating zig‐zagging and straight movement. There was no effect of temperature, wave height, or tidal phase on distribution of snail turning angles, suggesting that they may have foraged consistently but moved faster during warm conditions and low tides, thereby grazing a larger area. This is one of few direct recordings of inter‐tidal organisms on wave‐exposed rocky shores during high tide. The methods used here are easily transferable to other studies, which are needed to increase our understanding of behaviors that structure rocky shore communities during high tide.     

Extra-tropical atmospheric response to ENSO in the CMIP5 models

The seasonal mean extra-tropical atmospheric response to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is assessed in the historical and pre-industrial control CMIP5 simulations. This analysis considers two types of El Niño events, characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in either the central equatorial Pacific (CP) or eastern equatorial Pacific (EP), as well as EP and CP La Niña events, characterized by negative SST anomalies in the same two regions. Seasonal mean geopotential height anomalies in key regions typify the magnitude and structure of the disruption of the Walker circulation cell in the tropical Pacific, upper tropospheric ENSO teleconnections and the polar stratospheric response. In the CMIP5 ensembles, the magnitude of the Walker cell disruption is correlated with the strength of the mid-latitude responses in the upper troposphere i.e., the North Pacific and South Pacific lows strengthen during El Niño events. The simulated responses to El Niño and La Niña have opposite sign. The seasonal mean extra-tropical, upper tropospheric responses to EP and CP events are indistinguishable. The ENSO responses in the MERRA reanalysis lie within the model scatter of the historical simulations. Similar responses are simulated in the pre-industrial and historical CMIP5 simulations. Overall, there is a weak correlation between the strength of the tropical response to ENSO and the strength of the polar stratospheric response. ENSO-related polar stratospheric variability is best simulated in the “high-top” subset of models with a well-resolved stratosphere.     

Changes in lead and zinc lability during weathering-induced acidification of desert mine tailings: Coupling chemical and micro-scale analyses

Desert mine tailings may accumulate toxic metals in the near surface centimeters because of low water through-flux rates. Along with other constraints, metal toxicity precludes natural plant colonization even over decadal time scales. Since unconsolidated particles can be subjected to transport by wind and water erosion, potentially resulting in direct human and ecosystem exposure, there is a need to know how the lability and form of metals change in the tailings weathering environment. A combination of chemical extractions, X-ray diffraction, micro-X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy, and micro-Raman spectroscopy were employed to study Pb and Zn contamination in surficial arid mine tailings from the Arizona Klondyke State Superfund Site. Initial site characterization indicated a wide range in pH (2.5–8.0) in the surficial tailings pile. Ligand-promoted (DTPA) extractions, used to assess plant-available metal pools, showed decreasing available Zn and Mn with progressive tailings acidification. Aluminum shows the inverse trend, and Pb and Fe show more complex pH dependence. Since the tailings derive from a common source and parent mineralogy, it is presumed that variations in pH and “bio-available” metal concentrations result from associated variation in particle–scale geochemistry. Four sub-samples, ranging in pH from 2.6 to 5.4, were subjected to further characterization to elucidate micro-scale controls on metal mobility. With acidification, total Pb (ranging from 5 to 13 g kg⁻¹) was increasingly associated with Fe and S in plumbojarosite aggregates. For Zn, both total (0.4–6 g kg⁻¹) and labile fractions decreased with decreasing pH. Zinc was found to be primarily associated with the secondary Mn phases manjiroite and chalcophanite. The results suggest that progressive tailings acidification diminishes the overall lability of the total Pb and Zn pools.     

The Geochemistry of Supraglacial Streams of Canada Glacier,Taylor Valley (Antarctica), and their Evolution into Proglacial Waters

We have investigated the geochemistry of supraglacial streams on the Canada Glacier, Taylor Valley, Antarctica during the 2001–2002 austral summer. Canada Glacier supraglacial streams represent the link between primary precipitation (i.e. glacier snow) and proglacial Lake Hoare. Canada Glacier supraglacial stream geochemistry is intermediate between glacier snow and proglacial stream geochemistry with average concentrations of 49.1 μeq L⁻¹ Ca2+, 19.9 μeq L⁻¹ SO₄²⁻, and 34.3 μeq L⁻¹ HCO₃⁻. Predominant west to east winds lead to a redistribution of readily soluble salts onto the glacier surface, which is reflected in the geochemistry of the supraglacial streams. Western Canada Glacier supraglacial streams have average SO₄²⁻:HCO₃⁻ equivalent ratios of 1.0, while eastern supraglacial streams average 0.5, suggesting more sulfate salts reach and dissolve in the western supraglacial streams. A graph of HCO₃⁻ versus Ca2+ for western and eastern supraglacial streams had slopes of 0.87 and 0.72, respectively with R2 values of 0.84 and 0.83. Low concentrations of reactive silicate (> 10 μmol L⁻¹) in the supraglacial streams suggested that little to no silicate weathering occurred on the glacier surface with the exception of cryoconite holes (1000 μmol L⁻¹). Therefore, the major geochemical weathering process occurring in the supraglacial streams is believed to be calcite dissolution. Proglacial stream, Anderson Creek, contains higher concentrations of major ions than supraglacial streams containing 5 times the Ca²⁺ and 10 times the SO₄²⁻. Canada Glacier proglacial streams also contain higher concentrations (16.6–30.6 μeq L⁻¹) of reactive silicate than supraglacial streams. This suggests that the controls on glacier meltwater geochemistry switch from calcite and gypsum dissolution to both salt dissolution and silicate mineral weathering as the glacier meltwater evolves. Our chemical mass balance calculations indicate that of the total discharge into Lake Hoare, the final recipient of Canada Glacier meltwater, 81.9% is from direct glacier runoff and 19.1% is from proglacial Andersen Creek. Although during a typical, low melt ablation season Andersen Creek contributes over 40% of the water added to Lake Hoare, its overall chemical importance is diluted by the direct inputs from Canada Glacier during high flow years. Decadal warming events, such as the 2001–2002 austral summer produce supraglacial streams that are a major source of water to Lake Hoare.     

Do S-type granites commonly sample infracrustal sources? New results from an integrated O, U–Pb and Hf isotope study of zircon

In contrast to I-type granites, which commonly comprise infracrustal and supracrustal sources, S-type granites typically incorporate predominantly supracrustal sources. The initial aim of this study was to identify the sources of three Scottish Caledonian (~460 Ma) S-type granites (Kemnay, Cove and Nigg Bay) by conducting oxygen, U–Pb and Hf isotope analyses in zircon in order to characterise one potential end-member magma involved in the genesis of the voluminous late Caledonian (~430–400 Ma) I-type granites. Field, whole-rock geochemical and isotopic data are consistent with the generation of the S-type granites by melting their Dalradian Supergroup country rocks. While Hf isotope compositions of magmatic zircon, U–Pb data of inherited zircons, and high mean zircon δ¹⁸O values of 9.0 ± 2.7‰ (2SD) and 9.8 ± 2.0‰ for the Kemnay and Cove granites support this model, the Nigg Bay Granite contains zircons with much lower δ¹⁸O values (6.8 ± 2.1‰), similar to those found in Scottish I-type granites. This suggests that the Nigg Bay Granite contains low-δ¹⁸O material representing either altered supracrustal material, or more likely, an infracrustal source component with mantle-like δ¹⁸O. Mixing trends in plots of δ¹⁸O vs. εHf for S-type granite zircons indicate involvement of at least two sources in all three granites. This pilot study of Scottish Caledonian S-type granites demonstrates that, while field and whole-rock geochemical data are consistent with local melting of only supracrustal sources, the oxygen isotopic record stored in zircon reveals a much more complex petrogenetic evolution involving two or more magma sources.