A land-use-based modelling chain to assess the impacts of Natural Water Retention Measures on Europe’s Green Infrastructure

This article details the process of integrating models to answer a specific policy-driven question: ‘What could be the impact of proposed Natural Water Retention Measures (NWRMs) on Europe’s Green Infrastructure (GI)?’ It describes the new Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP), now enabling a high spatial scale (100-m) and large coverage (pan-European), whereby several sector-specific models contribute to assessing the impact of regional-level policy on a given spatial topic of concern. The configuration (land claims and land allocations modules) and calibration (accessibility and biophysical suitability) of the LUMP are explained. Four NWRM scenarios (riparian areas, afforestation, grassland and baseline scenario) are configured to run the simulations. For the reference: year 2006, the spatial representation of GI is based on land-use features of a refined version of the CORINE Land Cover (CLC), and resumed as connected components made of nodes and links.

Mathematical morphological image processing and network graph theory model, available from the free software package GUIDOS (the Joint Research Center of the European Commission), enabled the measurement of the GI connectivity and identified most critical links. Results show that the competition for land claimed by different economic sectors, combined with policy-driven rule-sets for the implementation of different NWRMs, yields very different results for the 2030 land-use projections, and subsequently for the morphology of GI. Three indicators associated with the morphology of GI are computed in order to assess the model outputs for 2030. The indicators are computed to answer the following questions: (1) How is the quantity of GI affected by each of the NWRM, and what proportion of that GI is most valuable? (2) What is the location of the most critical nodes and connectors of GI, and what land-use conversions occur under these? (3) Are the average components getting larger or smaller?

Whereas the grassland measure results in the largest net increase of GI, the afforestation measure results in the overall largest number of hectares of key nodes and links within the network. Land conversions occur under the critical GI nodes and links, with a large increase in agricultural areas, especially for the riparian measure under critical nodes and the grassland measure under critical links. Also predominant is the swapping of land from pasture to forest under critical links with the afforestation measure. The riparian measure most increases the average size of GI components, and all three measures contribute to bridging two large components which were divided in the 2006 land-use map, thus increasing the size of the largest component by more than 50%.     

Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.     

Charcoal analysis for paleoenvironmental interpretation: A chemical assay

Pollen and charcoal analysis of radiocarbon-dated sediment cores from Duck Pond in the Cape Cod National Seashore provide a continuous 12,000-yr vegetation and climate history of outer Cape Cod. A Picea-Hudsonia parkland and then a Picea-Pinus banksiana-Alnus crispa boreal forest association grew near the site between 12,000 and 10,000 yr B.P. This vegetation was replaced by a northern conifer forest of Pinus strobus-P. banksiana, and, subsequently, by a more mesophytic forest (Pinus strobus, Tsuga, Quercus, Fagus, Acer, Ulmus, Fraxinus, Ostrya) as the climate became warmer and wetter by 9500 yr B.P. By 9000 yr B.P. a Pinus rigida-Quercus association dominated the landscape. High charcoal frequencies from this and subsequent levels suggest that the pine barrens association developed during a warmer and drier climate that lasted from 9000 to about 5000 yr B.P. Increased percentages of Pinus strobus pollen indicate a return to moister and cooler conditions by about 3500 yr B.P. A doubled sedimentation rate, increased charcoal, and increased herb pollen suggest land disturbance near the pond before European settlement. These results suggest a rapid warming in the northeast in the early Holocene and support a hypothesis of a rapid sea level rise at that time. Comparison of the pollen results from Duck Pond with those from Rogers Lake, Connecticut, illustrates the importance of edaphic factors in determining the disturbance frequency and vegetation history of an area.     

Gatekeepers,Shareholders, and Evangelists: Expanding Communication Networks of African American Forest Landowners in North Carolina

The Sustainable Forestry and African American Land Retention Program (SFLR) was launched in 2012 to increase adoption of sustainable forestry practices among African American landowners in the southeastern United States to prevent land loss, increase forest health, and build economic assets. One of its main goals was to build communication networks through which African American landowners could obtain and share information about forestry practices and landowner assistance programs independent of public agencies. To measure and examine the growth of these communication networks over a three-year period (2014-2017), we conducted 87 interviews with landowners (24 of whom were interviewed multiple times), SFLR personnel, and Federal and State staff members in North Carolina. We used complementary methods of data gathering and analysis, including social network analysis and qualitative analysis. Our results showed expanding communication networks will be sustained independently of the program over time, although there is still a heavy reliance on program personnel.     

Histopathological biomarkers in estuarine fish species for the assessment of biological effects of contaminants

The increasing emphasis on the assessment and monitoring of estuarine ecosystems has highlighted the need to deploy appropriate biological indices for these locations. Fish diseases and histopathology, with a broad range of causes, are increasingly being used as indicators of environmental stress since they provide a definite biological end-point of historical exposure. This study reports on the histopathological alterations observed in selected organs and tissues of three species of estuarine fish (Platichthys flesus, Pomatoschistus minutus and Zoarces viviparus), captured from four British estuaries (the Tyne, Tees, Mersey and Alde), differently impacted by contaminants, including PAHs. A biannual sampling regime was used to identify the important seasonal variations that occur in terms of the observed biological effects. Inflammatory lesions and hepatocellular fibrillar inclusions attained their highest prevalence in P. flesus captured from the Tyne, Tees and Mersey. The presence of pre-neoplastic and neoplastic toxicopathic lesions was highest in P. flesus captured from these sites, when compared to fish from the Aide reference site. In particular, the prevalence of hepatic foci of cellular alteration (up to 43.3%) and hepatocellular adenoma (up to 10%) were highest in P. flesus captured from the Mersey estuary. Intersex (ovotestis) was only recorded in male P.flesus captured from the Mersey estuary (up to 8.3%) and from male Z. viviparous captured from the Tyne estuary (25%). Pathologies associated with the gill and the kidney were also most prevalent in fish captured from the Tyne, Tees and Mersey estuaries. This study has successfully applied histopathology to an estuarine monitoring program, both for the recording of toxicopathic lesions in the liver and other organs, and for the detection of the endpoint of endocrine disruption, intersex. As such, it provides a powerful integrative tool for the assessment of biological effects of contaminants in these environments.     

Comparison of hypoxia among four river-dominated ocean margins: The Changjiang (Yangtze), Mississippi,Pearl, and Rhône rivers

We examined the occurrence of seasonal hypoxia (O₂<2 mg l⁻¹) in the bottom waters of four river-dominated ocean margins (off the Changjiang, Mississippi, Pearl and Rhône Rivers) and compared the processes leading to the depletion of oxygen. Consumption of oxygen in bottom waters is linked to biological oxygen demand fueled by organic matter from primary production in the nutrient-rich river plume and perhaps terrigenous inputs. Hypoxia occurs when this consumption exceeds replenishment by diffusion, turbulent mixing or lateral advection of oxygenated water. The margins off the Mississippi and Changjiang are affected the most by summer hypoxia, while the margins off the Rhône and the Pearl rivers systems are less affected, although nutrient concentrations in the river water are very similar in the four systems. Spring and summer primary production is high overall for the shelves adjacent to the Mississippi, Changjiang and Pearl (1–10 g C m⁻² d⁻¹), and lower off the Rhône River (<1 g C m⁻² d⁻¹), which could be one of the reasons of the absence of hypoxia on the Rhône shelf. The residence time of the bottom water is also related to the occurrence of hypoxia, with the Mississippi margin showing a long residence time and frequent occurrences of hypoxia during summer over very large spatial scales, whereas the East China Sea (ECS)/Changjiang displays hypoxia less regularly due to a shorter residence time of the bottom water. Physical stratification plays an important role with both the Changjiang and Mississippi shelf showing strong thermohaline stratification during summer over extended periods of time, whereas summer stratification is less prominent for the Pearl and Rhône partly due to the wind effect on mixing. The shape of the shelf is the last important factor since hypoxia occurs at intermediate depths (between 5 and 50 m) on broad shelves (Gulf of Mexico and ECS). Shallow estuaries with low residence time such as the Pearl River estuary during the summer wet season when mixing and flushing are dominant features, or deeper shelves, such as the Gulf of Lion off the Rhône show little or no hypoxia.     

Delineation of flooding risk hotspots based on digital elevation model,calculated and historical flooding extents: the case of Ouagadougou

Delineation of flood risk hotspots can be considered as one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk management and mitigation. This paper presents a step-by-step methodology in a GIS-based framework for identifying flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. The novelty of this paper consists in the fact that the flood-prone areas (the TWI thresholds) are identified through a maximum likelihood method (MLE) based both on inundation profiles calculated for a specific return period (T_R), and on information about the extent of historical flooding in the area of interest. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter updating is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold by employing the historical extent as prior information and the inundation map for calculating the likelihood function. For different statistics of the TWI threshold, the map of potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of residential urban morphology units in order to delineate the residential flooding risk urban hotspots. Overlaying the delineated urban hotspots with geo-spatial census datasets, the number of people affected by flooding is estimated. These kind of screening procedures are particularly useful for locations where there is a lack of detailed data or where it is difficult to perform accurate flood risk assessment. In fact, an application of the proposed procedure is demonstrated for the identification of urban flooding risk hotspots in the city of Ouagadougou, capital of Burkina Faso, a city for which the observed spatial extent of a major flood event in 2009 and a calculated inundation map for a return period of 300 years are both available.