Statistical properties of aftershock rate decay: Implications for the assessment of continuing activity

Aftershock rates seem to follow a power law decay, but the assessment of the aftershock frequency immediately after an earthquake, as well as during the evolution of a seismic excitation remains a demand for the imminent seismic hazard. The purpose of this work is to study the temporal distribution of triggered earthquakes in short time scales following a strong event, and thus a multiple seismic sequence was chosen for this purpose. Statistical models are applied to the 1981 Corinth Gulf sequence, comprising three strong (M = 6.7, M = 6.5, and M = 6.3) events between 24 February and 4 March. The non-homogeneous Poisson process outperforms the simple Poisson process in order to model the aftershock sequence, whereas the Weibull process is more appropriate to capture the features of the short-term behavior, but not the most proper for describing the seismicity in long term. The aftershock data defines a smooth curve of the declining rate and a long-tail theoretical model is more appropriate to fit the data than a rapidly declining exponential function, as supported by the quantitative results derived from the survival function. An autoregressive model is also applied to the seismic sequence, shedding more light on the stationarity of the time series.     

Quasi-Biennial Oscillations of Global Solar-Activity Indices

Quasi-biennial oscillations of solar activity are investigated using several global indices. The Singular Spectrum Analysis is used to separate out and study quasi-biennial oscillations; this method is one of the modifications of the main components method. The principal components of the solar cycle are stable 11-year, secular, and quasi-biennial variations. The periods and shapes of individual variations in each quasi-biennial train depend on the length and power of the particular 11-year cycle.     

Elasticity of polycrystalline stishovite

Ultrasonic data for the velocities of SiO₂-stishovite have been determined as a function of pressure to 10 kbar at room temperature for polycrystalline specimens hot-pressed at pressures P = 120kbar and temperatures T = 900°C. These cylindrical specimens are 2 mm in diameter and 0.9–1.4 mm long and have a grain size less than 10 μm. Compressional and shear wave velocities were measured both parallel and perpendicular to the axis of pressing and were found to be isotropic at 10 kbar with ν_p = 11.0 ± 0.2km/sec andν_s = 6.9 ± 0.3km/sec; this shear velocit is substantially higher than that of Mizutani et al. (1972) perhaps due to the presence of crack orientations in their specimen which affected ν_s but not ν_p. The Murnaghan P-V trajectories calculated from the ultrasonic data [bulk modulus K_s = 2.5 ± 0.3Mbar and assuming (?K_s/?P)_T = 6 ± 2] are consistent with recent hydrostatic compression data and with the shock wave compression data above 600 kbar. The combined evidence from the data of the ultrasonic and hydrostatic compression techniques suggests that the most probable value of the bulk modulus of stishovite at zero pressure is close to the upper limit of the uncertainty of our ultrasonically determined value, K₀ = 2.7?2.8Mbar. Elasticity data for rutile-type oxides are not compatible with normal K_s-V₀ systematics perhaps due to the neglect of non-central forces in the lattice model. These new stishovite data would make it impossible to satisfy the elasticity-density data of the lower mantle using an oxide mixture with either olivine or pyroxene stoichiometry.     

Leveraging modern climatology to increase adaptive capacity across protected area networks

Human-driven changes in the global environment pose an increasingly urgent challenge for the management of ecosystems that is made all the more difficult by the uncertain future of both environmental conditions and ecological responses. Land managers need strategies to increase regional adaptive capacity, but relevant and rapid assessment approaches are lacking. To address this need, we developed a method to assess regional protected area networks across biophysically important climatic gradients often linked to biodiversity and ecosystem function. We plot the land of the southwestern United States across axes of historical climate space, and identify landscapes that may serve as strategic additions to current protected area portfolios. Considering climate space is straightforward, and it can be applied using a variety of relevant climate parameters across differing levels of land protection status. The resulting maps identify lands that are climatically distinct from existing protected areas, and may be utilized in combination with other ecological and socio-economic information essential to collaborative landscape-scale decision-making. Alongside other strategies intended to protect species of special concern, natural resources, and other ecosystem services, the methods presented herein provide another important hedging strategy intended to increase the adaptive capacity of protected area networks.     

Hydrocarbons in bivalve mollusks of Port Valdez, Alaska: Consequences of five years' permitted discharge

Petroleum hydrocarbons were investigated in Mytilus edulis and Macoma balthica at six intertidal sites in Port Valdez, Alaska after three to five years of oil terminal operation. Information about the concentrations of total hydrocarbons, unresolved complex mixture, normal alkanes, isoprenoids, olefins, hopanes and polycyclic aromatic hyrocarbons shows that petroleum accumulation in these bivalve mollusks is greatest at the Valdez municipal boat harbor and a crude oil terminal which has been permitted to discharge 170 kg oil day⁻¹. Accumulation two- to ten-fold less were observed at 3 km from the terminal and boat harbor. The temporal trends in petroleum hydrocarbon concentrations in M. edulis and M. balthica reflect the effects of selective retention and depuration of different hydrocarbon classes as well as variation in hydrocarbon sources. It is not clear whether the petroleum concentrations in Port Valdez bivalves had reached steady state by 1982, the final sampling time reported here.     

Was the M<Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.5 1952 Kern County,California, earthquake induced (or triggered)?

Several recent studies have presented evidence that significant induced earthquakes occurred in a number of oil-producing regions during the early and mid-twentieth century related to either production or wastewater injection. We consider whether the 21 July 1952 M_w 7.5 Kern County earthquake might have been induced by production in the Wheeler Ridge oil field. The mainshock, which was not preceded by any significant foreshocks, occurred 98 days after the initial production of oil in Eocene strata at depths reaching 3 km, within ~1 km of the White Wolf fault (WWF). Based on this spatial and temporal proximity, we explore a potential causal relationship between the earthquake and oil production. While production would have normally be expected to have reduced pore pressure, inhibiting failure on the WWF, we present an analytical model based on industry stratigraphic data and best estimates of parameters whereby an impermeable splay fault adjacent to the main WWF could plausibly have blocked direct pore pressure effects, allowing the poroelastic stress change associated with production to destabilize the WWF, promoting initial failure. This proof-of-concept model can also account for the 98-day delay between the onset of production and the earthquake. While the earthquake clearly released stored tectonic stress, any initial perturbation on or near a major fault system can trigger a larger rupture. Our proposed mechanism provides an explanation for why significant earthquakes are not commonly induced by production in proximity to major faults.     

Analysis of Photoelectric Occultations and Development of a Digital Model of the Lunar Libration Zone

Astronomy Reports - One of the priority tasks of modern astronomy is the observation and study of transient celestial processes, which also concerns photoelectric observations of lunar occultations...     

Structural controls of lode-gold mineralization by mafic dykes in late-Paleozoic granitoids of the Kochkar district, southern Urals, Russia

The Kochkar gold district in the East Uralian Zone of the southern Urals is located in late-Paleozoic granite gneisses of the Plast massif. Gold mineralization is associated with tabular quartz lodes that are preferentially developed along the margins of easterly trending mafic dykes. Fabric development indicates that dykes had a profound influence on the development of shear zones in granitoids. ENE- and SE-trending dykes have been reactivated as dextral and sinistral oblique strike-slip shear zones, respectively, forming a set of approximately conjugate shear zones related to the Permian, regional-scale E-W directed shortening. Dyke-shear zone relationships in the Plast massif are the result of strain refraction due to the presence of biotite-rich, incompetent dykes in more competent granite-gneisses. Deformation and the formation of associated gold-quartz lodes occurred close to peak-metamorphic, upper-greenschist to lower-amphibolite facies conditions. Strain refraction has resulted in partitioning of the bulk strain into a component of non-coaxial mainly ductile shear in mafic dykes, and a component of layer-normal pure shear in surrounding granitoids where deformation was brittle-ductile. Brittle fracturing in granitoids has resulted in the formation of fracture permeabilities adjacent to sheared dykes, that together with the layer-normal dilational component, promoted the access of mineralizing fluids. Both ore-controlling dykes and gold-quartz lodes were subsequently overprinted by lower greenschist-facies, mainly brittle fault zones and associated hydrothermal alteration that post-date gold mineralization. Received: 15 October 1998 / Accepted: 18 August 1999     

Composition of the core,I. Solubility of oxygen in molten iron at high temperatures

Experiments on the solubility of FeO in molten iron have been carried out at temperatures between 2100 and 2550°C. The results show that liquid FeO is extensively soluble in molten iron at 2500°C and indicate that they probably become completely miscible above 2800°C. Liquid iron in equilibrium with crystalline magnesiowüstite (Mg_0.8Fe_0.2)O which is believed to be an important mineral in the lower mantle, would dissolve about 14 mol.% of FeO at 2500°C and 40 mol.% of FeO at 2800°C. The geochemical implications of these results are discussed. It is concluded that the outer core probably contains a large amount of dissolved FeO and that oxygen is probably the principal light element in the outer core.