Developing a large‐scale water‐balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain

Seasonal hydrological forecasts, or outlooks, can potentially provide water managers with estimates of river flows and water resources for a lead time of several months ahead. An experimental modelling tool for national hydrological outlooks has been developed which combines a hydrological model estimate of sub‐surface water storage across Britain with a range of seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide estimates of area‐wide hydrological conditions up to a few months ahead. The link is made between a deficit in sub‐surface water storage and a requirement for additional rainfall over subsequent months to enable sub‐surface water storage and river flow to return to mean monthly values. The new scheme is assessed over a recent period which includes the termination of the drought that affected much of Britain in the first few months of 2012. An illustration is provided of its use to obtain return‐period estimates of the ‘rainfall required’ to ease drought conditions; these are well in excess of 200 years for several regions of the country, for termination within a month of 1 April 2012, and still exceed 40 years for termination within three months. National maps of sub‐surface water storage anomaly show for the first time the current spatial variability of drought severity. They can also be used to provide an indication of how a drought situation might develop in the next few months given a range of possible future rainfall scenarios. © 2013 CEH/Crown and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating impacts of warming temperatures on California's electricity system

Despite a clear need, little research has been carried out at the regional-level to quantify potential climate-related impacts to electricity production and delivery systems. This paper introduces a bottom-up study of climate change impacts on California's energy infrastructure, including high temperature effects on power plant capacity, transmission lines, substation capacity, and peak electricity demand. End-of-century impacts were projected using the A2 and B1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. The study quantifies the effect of high ambient temperatures on electricity generation, the capacity of substations and transmission lines, and the demand for peak power for a set of climate scenarios. Based on these scenarios, atmospheric warming and associated peak demand increases would necessitate up to 38% of additional peak generation capacity and up to 31% additional transmission capacity, assuming current infrastructure. These findings, although based on a limited number of scenarios, suggest that additional funding could be put to good use by supporting R&D into next generation cooling equipment technologies, diversifying the power generation mix without compromising the system's operational flexibility, and designing effective demand side management programs.     

Short-term environmental variability in cold-water coral habitat at Viosca Knoll,Gulf of Mexico

The Lophelia pertusa community at Viosca Knoll (VK826) is the most extensive found to date in the Gulf of Mexico. As part of a multi-disciplinary study, the physical setting of this area was described using benthic landers, CTD transects and remotely operated vehicle observations. The site was broadly characterised into three main habitats: (1) dense coral cover that resembles biogenic reef complexes, (2) areas of sediment, and (3) authigenic carbonate blocks with sparse coral and chemosynthetic communities. The coral communities were dominated by L. pertusa but also contained numerous solitary coral species. Over areas that contained L. pertusa, the environmental conditions recorded were similar to those associated with communities in the north-eastern Atlantic, with temperature (8.5–10.6 °C) and salinity (～35) falling within the known species niche for L. pertusa. However, dissolved oxygen concentrations (2.7–2.8 ml l^?1) and density (σ_Θ, 27.1–27.2 kg m^?3) were lower and mass fluxes from sediment trap data appeared much higher (4002–4192 mg m^?2 d^?1). Yet, this species still appears to thrive in this region, suggesting that L. pertusa may not be as limited by lower dissolved oxygen concentrations as previously thought. The VK826 site experienced sustained eastward water flow of 10–30 cm s^?1 over the 5-day measurement period but was also subjected to significant short-term variability in current velocity and direction. In addition, two processes were observed that caused variability in salinity and temperature; the first was consistent with internal waves that caused temperature variations of 0.8 °C over 5–11 h periods. The second was high-frequency variability (20–30 min periods) in temperature recorded only at the ALBEX site. A further pattern observed over the coral habitat was the presence of a 24 h diel vertical migration of zooplankton that may form part of a food chain that eventually reaches the corals. The majority of detailed studies concerning local environmental conditions in L. pertusa habitats have been conducted within the north-eastern Atlantic, limiting most knowledge of the niche of this species to a single part of an ocean basin. Data presented here show that the corals at VK826 are subjected to similar conditions in temperature, salinity, and flow velocity as their counterparts in the north-east Atlantic, although values for dissolved oxygen and density (sigma-theta: σ_Θ) are different. Our data also highlight novel observations of short-term environmental variability in cold-water coral habitat.     

Geochemistry and mineralogy of laterites in the Sula Mountains greenstone belt, Lake Sonfon gold district, Sierra Leone

Geochemical and mineralogical investigations have been carried out on laterite profiles developed in the Lake Sonfon Au district of northern Sierra Leone. The area is underlain by Archean metavolcanics and constitutes part of the Sula Mountains greenstone belt, which is mineralized in Au. Extensive lateritization has affected the rocks of this region, resulting in a profile which from bottom to top consists typically of a decomposed bedrock zone, a pisolitic laterite layer and a duricrust layer. Both the pisolitic and duricrust layers of the laterite are sometimes punctuated by lenses of ironstones containing high amounts of Cu, Zn, Ni, Co and Ce. Gold occurs as small grains within the heavy mineral fraction recovered from the decomposed rock zones and pisolitic layers of the profiles and also in gravels of streams draining the area. The mineralogy of the duricrust and pisolitic layers is dominated by goethite, gibbsite and quartz, with minor amounts (<5% by volume) of ilmenite, magnetite, haematite, rutile and kaolinite. The kaolinite content increases towards the decomposed rock zone, where talc, vermiculite and other layer lattice silicates become abundant. The heavy-mineral fraction of stream sediments is composed essentially of ilmenite, magnetite, haematite, and traces of rutile, zircon, tourmaline and Au. The Au grains are often characterized by a 10–200-μm-wide rim having a much lower content of Ag (0.3 wt.% or lower) than the grain interior (about 5 wt.% on average). Dissolution effects are also observed on the grain surfaces. It is considered that Au derived from the amphibolite parent rock is dissolved, transported, and redeposited during laterization.The duricrust cover of the laterite profiles is characterized by high contents of Fe₂O₃ (ca. 60 wt.%) and Al₂O₃ (ca. 32wt.%) and low content of SiO₂ (ca. 9 wt.%). In comparison, the pisolitic layer is higher in SiO₂ (ca. 18 wt.%) as well as a slightly higher in Al₂O₃ (ca. 34 wt.%). Lateritic weathering has resulted in the removal of CaO, Na₂O, MgO and SiO₂, with relative enrichment of Fe₂O₃ and Al₂O₃. The geochemical distribution of the trace elements in the laterite profiles can be related to the occurrence of the auriferous mineralization. The significance of these observations is discussed in relation to the origin of the lateritic Au and the role of the associated trace elements as indicators of the mineralization.     

Dissolved oxygen variations in alpine glacial meltwaters

Recent models of chemical weathering in alpine glacial meltwaters suggest that sulphide oxidation is a major source of solute in the distributed component of the subglacial hydrological system. This reaction requires O₂, and may lower dissolved oxygen levels to below saturation with respect to the atmosphere. This should result in an inverse association between SO₇^2- and dissolved oxygen saturation. However, measurements of O₂ saturation in bulk meltwaters draining the Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland, show that there is a positive association between SO₄^2- and O₂ saturation. The O₂ content of glacial meltwaters depends on the initial content of snow and icemelt, which may be controlled by the rate of melting, and the kinetic balance between O₂ losses (e.g. sulphide oxidation, microbial respiration) and gains (e.g. diffusion of O₂ into solution).     

Estimation of sector roughness lengths and the effect on prediction of the vertical wind speed profile

An estimate of roughness length is required by some atmospheric models and is also used in the logarithmic profile to determine the increase of wind speed with height under neutral conditions. The choice of technique for determining roughness lengths is generally constrained by the available input data. Here, we compare sets of roughness lengths derived by different methods for the same site and evaluate their impact on the prediction of the vertical wind speed profile.Wind speed and direction data have been collected at four heights over a three-year period at the North Norfolk Wind Monitoring Site. Wind speed profiles were used to generate sector roughness lengths based on the logarithmic profile formula. This is the only direct way of determining roughness lengths. The simplest and cheapest method is to use maps with published tables giving roughness length estimates for different terrain types. Alternatively Wieringa (1976, 1986) and Beljaars (1987) give formulae for determining roughness lengths from wind speed gusts or standard deviations.The four sets of estimated roughness lengths vary considerably. They were used to estimate 34 m wind speeds from 12.7 m observations. The profile-derived roughnesses are used simply as a check on the prediction of the wind speed profiles. The terrain-derived roughness lengths give reasonable results. Gust-derived and standard deviation roughnesses both predict wind speeds which are lower than the observed ones. The error is greater in the case of standard deviation roughnesses. If stability corrections are applied in the prediction of the vertical wind speed profile, the results are considerably improved.     

Lagging mantle convection,the geoid and mantle structure

In numerical models of convection incorporating migration of a simulated subduction zone, the main descending flow lags far behind the migrating trench, and a geoid low is associated with the main descending flow. This provides physical plausibility for the suggestion by Chase and Sprowl that present very long-wavelength (degree 2–4) geoid lows are associated with Mesozoic trench locations, and suggests further that the present long-wavelength geoid, deep mantle structure and hotspot distribution may be straightforward consequences of plate evolution since the Upper Paleozoic.     

The polarization of Pc5 ULF waves around dawn: A possible ionospheric conductivity gradient effect

In this study over 100 Pc5 events observed on the SAMNET magnetometer array have been catalogued. The ground horizontal polarization of these waves has been investigated and it has been shown that there are large differences between the polarization azimuth distributions on either side of noon. In the morning the azimuth distributions are spread evenly across all possible orientations whereas in the afternoon they are predominantly in a North-South orientation. The difference appears to be the result of a specific polarization pattern that occurred across the SAMNET array for 31 of the Pc5 events. These 31 Pc5 events all occurred in the morning sector, close to the dawn terminator. It is suggested that this special polarization pattern is a consequence of ionospheric conductivity gradients that occur at around dawn. This theory is reinforced by the comparison of the local times of these polarization variations with the local time of sunrise. By employing ionospheric conductivity data from the EISCAT radar for two of these Pc5 events, this connection has been studied in more detail.