Unsupervised hydrologic classification of rivers: Watershed controls on natural and anthropogenic flow regimes,Alabama, USA

Watershed hydrology has often focused on modelling studies of individual watersheds, which consider each river system as unique. Classification is an alternative approach that instead focuses on the similarities among different watersheds. Although both supervised and unsupervised hydrologic classifications have been developed, few previous studies have used classification to assess the degree of anthropogenic modification of hydrologic regime. Here, we conducted an unsupervised hydrologic classification of 189 U.S. Geological Survey gages, including 41 minimally impacted gages from the Hydro‐Climatic Data Network (HCDN), in the five major interstate river basins in the U.S. state of Alabama. For the natural classification, the most significant predictor variables for cluster membership were related to compressive strength of bedrock, bedrock depth, hydraulic conductivity, elevation, temperature, and soil texture, and several land‐cover variables were also significant in the anthropogenic classification. We then developed two random‐forest models: one based on all 189 gages using both natural and anthropogenic variables from the Stream‐Catchment (StreamCat) dataset and one based on the 41 HCDN gages using natural StreamCat variables only. We used the random‐forest models to predict natural and anthropogenic normative hydrologic class for over 158,000 National Hydrography Dataset Plus catchments in the study area. Catchments that changed their class between the natural and anthropogenic classifications can be identified as those that have a large amount of anthropogenic influences on their hydrologic regime, including many catchments on the coast, in the north‐western Coastal Plain, in the Interior Low Plateaus, and in the Piedmont. Using unsupervised hydrologic classifications is a promising approach for uncovering the physical processes that affect hydrologic regime. There are also potential applications in river management, including predicting the hydrologic behaviour of ungaged watersheds, identifying relatively unimpaired rivers to serve as conservation and restoration targets, and regionalization of environmental instream flow standards and climate‐change impacts.     

The daily‐scale entrance dynamics of intermittently open/closed estuaries

Intermittently open/closed estuaries (IOCE) are a dynamic form of estuary characterised by periodic entrance closure to the ocean. Entrance closure is a function of the relative balance between on and offshore sediment transport with closures occurring during periods of low fluvial discharge whereby the estuary ebb‐tidal prism is reduced. Although the broad scale processes of entrance closure are becoming better understood, there remains limited knowledge on channel morphodynamics during an individual closure event. In this study, the entrance dynamics of three IOCE on the coast of Victoria, Australia, were monitored over a daily timescale following both artificial and natural openings. The influence of changing marine and fluvial conditions on the relative sedimentation rate within the entrance channel was examined. IOCE in Victoria showed two distinct modes of entrance closure: (a) lateral accretion, whereby the estuary gradually closes by longshore drift‐driven spit growth during low river flows; and (b) vertical accretion, where the channel rapidly aggrades under high (> 2 m), near‐normal waves. During storms, when fluvial discharge and wave heights simultaneously increase, large swells will not always close the mouth due to an increase in the ebb‐tidal prism. The estuary water depth and the maximum channel dimensions following opening were not proportional to the opening duration, with this being a function of the wave and fluvial conditions occurring following lagoon drainage. Based on the findings of this work, implementing a successful artificial entrance opening is dependent on reduced onshore sedimentation rates which occur when wave energy is low (< 2 m Hs) relative to river flow. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian maximum entropy and data fusion for processing qualitative data: theory and application for crowdsourced cropland occurrences in Ethiopia

Categorical data play an important role in a wide variety of spatial applications, while modeling and predicting this type of statistical variable has proved to be complex in many cases. Among other possible approaches, the Bayesian maximum entropy methodology has been developed and advocated for this goal and has been successfully applied in various spatial prediction problems. This approach aims at building a multivariate probability table from bivariate probability functions used as constraints that need to be fulfilled, in order to compute a posterior conditional distribution that accounts for hard or soft information sources. In this paper, our goal is to generalize further the theoretical results in order to account for a much wider type of information source, such as probability inequalities. We first show how the maximum entropy principle can be implemented efficiently using a linear iterative approximation based on a minimum norm criterion, where the minimum norm solution is obtained at each step from simple matrix operations that converges to the requested maximum entropy solution. Based on this result, we show then how the maximum entropy problem can be related to the more general minimum divergence problem, which might involve equality and inequality constraints and which can be solved based on iterated minimum norm solutions. This allows us to account for a much larger panel of information types, where more qualitative information, such as probability inequalities can be used. When combined with a Bayesian data fusion approach, this approach deals with the case of potentially conflicting information that is available. Although the theoretical results presented in this paper can be applied to any study (spatial or non-spatial) involving categorical data in general, the results are illustrated in a spatial context where the goal is to predict at best the occurrence of cultivated land in Ethiopia based on crowdsourced information. The results emphasize the benefit of the methodology, which integrates conflicting information and provides a spatially exhaustive map of these occurrence classes over the whole country.     

Delineation of precipitation regions using location and atmospheric variables in two Canadian climate regions: the role of attribute selection

The identification of homogeneous precipitation regions is essential in the planning, design and management of water resources systems. Regions are identified using a technique that partitions climate sites into groups based on the similarity of their attributes; the procedure is known as regionalization. In this paper the ability of four attribute sets to form large, coherent precipitation zones is assessed in terms of the regional homogeneity of precipitation statistics and computational efficiency. The outcomes provide guidance for effective attribute selection for future studies in Canada. The attributes under consideration include location parameters (latitude, longitude), distance to major water bodies, site elevation and atmospheric variables modelled at different pressure levels. The analysis is conducted in two diverse climate regions within Canada including the Prairie and the Great Lakes–St Lawrence lowlands regions. The method consists of four main steps: (i) formation of the attribute sets; (ii) determination of the preferred number of regions (selection of the c-value) into which the sites are partitioned; (iii) regionalization of climate sites using the fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm; and (iv) validation of regional homogeneity using L-moment statistics. The results of the attribute formation, c-value selection, regionalization and validation processes are presented and discussed in a comparative analysis. Based on the results it is recommended for both regions to use location parameters including latitude, longitude and distance to water bodies (in the Great Lakes region) to form precipitation regions and to consider atmospheric variables for future (climate change) applications of the regionalization procedure.     

Quantifying long-term post-fire sediment delivery and erosion mitigation effectiveness

Large wildfires can have profound and lasting impacts not only from direct consumption of vegetation but also longer-term effects such as persistent soil erosion. The 2002 Hayman Fire burned in one of the watersheds supplying water to the Denver metropolitan area; thus there was concern regarding hillslope erosion and sedimentation in the reservoirs. The efficacy of various treatments for reducing erosion was tested, including hand scarification on contour, agricultural straw mulch, wood mulch, burned controls and unburned reference plots. Simulated rill erosion experiments were used both immediately after the fire and again 10 years post fire. To better understand untreated recovery, the same experiments were applied to control plots in post-fire years 1, 2, 3 and 4, and in unburned reference plots in years 4 and 10. Results indicate that control and scarified plots produced significantly greater sediment flux rates – 1.9 and 2.8 g s⁻¹ respectively – than the straw and wood mulch treatments – 0.9 and 1.1 g s⁻¹ – immediately after the fire. Mulch treatments reduced runoff rate, runoff velocity, and sediment concentration and flux rate. The straw mulch cover was no longer present, whereas the wood mulch was still there in year 10. Vegetation regrowth was slow and mulch treatments provided effective cover to reduce sediment right after the fire. In post-fire year 10, there were no significant differences in sediment flux rates across treatments; it is notable, however, that the wood mulch treatment (0.09 g s⁻¹) most closely approached the unburned condition (0.07 g s⁻¹). The burned control plots had high sediment flux rates until post-fire year 3, when flux rates significantly decreased and were statistically no longer higher than the unburned levels from year 4 and 10. These results will inform managers of the longer-term post-fire sediment delivery rates and of the ability of post-fire emergency hillslope treatments to mitigate erosion rates. Published 2019. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Simulation of debris flow on an instrumented test slope using an updated Lagrangian continuum particle method

We present an updated Lagrangian continuum particle method based on smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) for simulating debris flow on an instrumented test slope. The site is a deforested area near the village of Ruedlingen, a community in the canton of Schaffhausen in Switzerland. Artificial rainfall experiments were conducted on the slope that led to failure of the sediment in the form of a debris flow. We develop a 3D mechanistic model for this test slope and conduct numerical simulations of the flow kinematics using an SPH formulation that captures large deformation, material nonlinearity, and the complex post-failure movement of the sediment. Two main simulations explore the impact of changes in the mechanical properties of the sediment on the ensuing kinematics of the flow. The first simulation models the sediment as a granular homogeneous material, while the second simulation models the sediment as a heterogeneous material with spatially varying cohesion. The variable cohesion is meant to represent the effects of root reinforcement from vegetation. By comparing the numerical solutions with the observed failure surfaces and final free-surface geometries of the debris deposit, as well as with the observed flow velocity, flow duration, and hot spots of strain concentration, we provide insights into the accuracy and robustness of the SPH framework for modeling debris flows.

     

From marine bands to hybrid flows: Sedimentology of a Mississippian black shale

Organic-rich mudstones have long been of interest as conventional and unconventional source rocks and are an important organic carbon sink. Yet the processes that deposited organic-rich muds in epicontinental seaways are poorly understood, partly because few modern analogues exist. This study investigates the processes that transported and deposited sediment and organic matter through part of the Bowland Shale Formation, from the Mississippian Rheic–Tethys seaway. Field to micron-scale sedimentological analysis reveals a heterogeneous succession of carbonate-rich, siliceous, and siliciclastic, argillaceous muds. Deposition of these facies at basinal and slope locations was moderated by progradation of the nearby Pendle delta system, fourth-order eustatic sea-level fluctuation and localized block and basin tectonism. Marine transgressions deposited bioclastic ‘marine band’ (hemi)pelagic packages. These include abundant euhaline macrofaunal tests, and phosphatic concretions of organic matter and radiolarian tests interpreted as faecal pellets sourced from a productive water column. Lens-rich (lenticular) mudstones, hybrid, debrite and turbidite beds successively overlie marine band packages and suggest reducing basin accommodation promoted sediment deposition via laminar and hybrid flows sourced from the basin margins. Mud lenses in lenticular mudstones lack organic linings and bioclasts and are equant in early-cemented lenses and in plan-view, and are largest and most abundant in mudstones overlying marine band packages. Thus, lenses likely represent partially consolidated mud clasts that were scoured and transported in bedload from the shelf or proximal slope, as a ‘shelf to basin’ conveyor, during periods of reduced basin accommodation. Candidate in situ microbial mats in strongly lenticular mudstones, and as rip-up fragments in the down-dip hybrid beds, suggest that these were potentially key biostabilizers of mud. Deltaic mud export was fast, despite the intrabasinal complexity, likely an order of magnitude higher than similar successions deposited in North America. Epicontinental basins remotely linked to delta systems were therefore capable of rapidly accumulating both sediment and organic matter.     

Effective flood risk visualisation

Natural Hazards - The effective communication of flood risk offers the opportunity to ensure communities can adapt and respond appropriately to changing local conditions. At a time of diminishing...     

A comparison of biological trends from four marine ecosystems: Synchronies, differences, and commonalities

Major features of four marine ecosystems were analyzed based on a broad range of fisheries-associated datasets and a suite of oceanographic surveys. The ecosystems analyzed included the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean, the Norwegian/Barents Seas in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, and the eastern Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. We examined survey trends in major fish abundances, total system fish biomass, and zooplankton biomasses. We standardized each time series and examined trends and anomalies over time, using both time series and cross-correlational statistical methods. We compared dynamics of functionally analogous species from each of these four ecosystems. Major commonalities among ecosystems included a relatively stable amount of total fish biomass and the importance of large calanoid copepods, small pelagic fishes and gadids. Some of the changes in these components were synchronous across ecosystems. Major differences between ecosystems included gradients in the magnitude of total fish biomass, commercial fish biomass, and the timing of major detected events. This work demonstrates the value of comparative analysis across a wide range of marine ecosystems, suggestive of very few but none-the-less detectable common features across all northern hemisphere ocean systems.