Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.     

Assessment of flow–ecology relationships for environmental flow standards: a synthesis focused on the southeast USA

ABSTRACT

Environmental flow standards are a management tool that can help to protect the ecosystem services sustained by rivers. Although environmental flow requirements can be assessed using a variety of methods, most of these methods require establishing relationships between flow and habitat of species of concern. Here, we conducted a synthesis of past flow–ecology studies in the southeast USA. For each state or interstate river basin, we used the published data to determine the flow metrics that resulted in the greatest changes in ecological metrics, and the ecological metrics that were most sensitive to hydrologic alteration. The flow metrics that were most important in preserving ecological metrics were high-flow duration and frequency, 3-day maximum and minimum, and number of reversals. The ecological metrics most sensitive to hydrologic alteration were mostly related to presence or absence of key indicator species.     

Surveillance for previously unmonitored organic contaminants in the San Francisco Estuary

The San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program initiated surveillance monitoring to identify previously unmonitored synthetic organic contaminants in the San Francisco Estuary. Organic extracts of water samples were analyzed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry in full scan mode. The major contaminant classes identified in the samples were fire retardants, pesticides, personal care product ingredients, and plasticizers. Evidence from the literature suggests that some of these contaminants can persist in the environment, induce toxicity, and accumulate in marine biota and in higher food chain consumers. The major sources of these contaminants into the marine environment are the discharge of municipal and industrial wastewater effluents, urban stormwater, and agricultural runoff. As a proactive effort, it is suggested that surveillance studies be used routinely in monitoring programs to identify and prevent potential problem contaminants from harming the marine environment.     

Evolutionary Timescale of the Pulsating White Dwarf G117-B15A: The Most Stable Optical Clock Known

We observe G117-B15A, the most precise optical clock known, to measure the rate of change of the main pulsation period of this blue-edge DAV white dwarf. Even though the obtained value is only within 1 sigma, P&d2;=&parl0;2.3+/-1.4&parr0;x10-15 s s-1, it is already constraining the evolutionary timescale of this cooling white dwarf star.     

Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium

We present and describe in detail the advantages and limitations of a technique that combines in an optimal way model results and proxy-data time series in order to obtain states of the climate system consistent with model physics, reconstruction of past radiative forcing and proxy records. To achieve this goal, we select among an ensemble of simulations covering the last millennium performed with a low-resolution 3-D climate model the ones that minimise a cost function. This cost function measures the misfit between model results and proxy records. In the framework of the tests performed here, an ensemble of 30 to 40 simulations appears sufficient to reach reasonable correlations between model results and reconstructions, in configurations for which a small amount of data is available as well as in data-rich areas. Preliminary applications of the technique show that it can be used to provide reconstructions of past large-scale temperature changes, complementary to the ones obtained by statistical methods. Furthermore, as model results include a representation of atmospheric and oceanic circulations, it can be used to provide insights into some amplification mechanisms responsible for past temperature changes. On the other hand, if the number of proxy records is too low, it could not be used to provide reconstructions of past changes at a regional scale.     

Burning issues: Whiteness, rurality and the politics of difference

In the past decade geographers have critiqued the exclusivity of idyllic representations of rurality and sought to explore the diverse experiences of Other social groups in the countryside. This paper builds upon that small but significant strand of research which has highlighted the whiteness of representations of rurality and the consequences of this for racialised minorities. These debates have been crucially important in forwarding our understanding of racially-exclusive constructions of idyllic country living; however, it is important that academics neither assume that such ideas are forever fixed, nor that they affect all minority ethnic groups in the same ways. This paper takes both the potential power and frailty of these ideas seriously, as it examines how the concepts of race, racism and rurality are deployed by different commentators as they debate the place of one specific minority ethnic group in the English countryside. The route taken into this is a consideration of print-media reporting of events in Firle, Sussex, where, in 2003, some white rural residents symbolically purged their village of Gypsy-Travellers by burning a mock caravan complete with effigies at their annual bonfire celebrations. In conclusion, the paper challenges the relative lack of attention to these issues within the white-dominated discipline of geography, and argues that it is imperative to trace the dynamic ways in which the whiteness of idyllic understandings of the rural are reinforced and challenged through contemporary social practice.     

The Green Revolution re-assessed: Insider perspectives on agrarian change in Bulandshahr District, Western Uttar Pradesh, India

In spite of raising Asian per capita food production by 27% and making India food self-sufficient, the Green Revolution has received much criticism for its environmental and socio-economic impacts. Taking on board post-development critiques of ‘speaking for’ Third World ‘others’, this paper seeks to examine the Green Revolution from the points of view of people directly affected by it. Comparative, historically-informed research in three villages for which 1972 baseline data exist reveal that the Green Revolution has ensured, in the words of one marginal farmer that ‘nobody sleeps with an empty stomach nowadays’. Most villagers associate the Green Revolution with increases in living standards and weakening community-based wealth hierarchies. Nevertheless, socio-economic inequalities between certain Scheduled Castes and other villagers are still very apparent.     

Generalisation of a Nonlinear Dynamo Model

In order to gain a better understanding of the physical processes underlying fast dynamo action it is instructive to investigate the structure of both the magnetic field and the velocity field after the dynamo saturates. Previously, computational results have been presented (Cattaneo, Hughes and Kim, 1996) that indicate, in particular, that Lagrangian chaos is suppressed in the dynamical regime of the dynamo. Here we extend their model by removing the assumption of neglecting the inertial term. This allows for an investigation into the effect of this term on the evolution of the dynamo via a comparison of the two models. Our results indicate that this term plays a crucial role in the physics of the dynamo.     

Chlorinated cooling waters in the marine environment: Development of effluent guidelines

The effects of free chlorine and chloramine on stage I lobster larvae and juvenile killifish were investigated in continuous flow bioassay units. In comparing mortality and changes in standard respiration rates during and after exposure to either chlorine form, significant respiratory stress was observed with exposure to sublethal levels. Sublethal responses to free and combined chlorine should be considered when establishing regulations for chlorine residuals in cooling waters.