How Officers Create Guardianship: An Agent‐based Model of Policing

Crime is a complex phenomenon, emerging from the interactions of offenders, victims, and their environment, and in particular from the presence or absence of capable guardians. Researchers have historically struggled to understand how police officers create guardianship. This presents a challenge because, in order to understand how to advise the police, researchers must have an understanding of how the current system works. The work presents an agent‐based model that simulates the movement of police vehicles, using a record of real calls for service and real levels of police staffing in spatially explicit environments to emulate the demands on the police force. The GPS traces of the simulated officers are compared with real officer movement GPS data in order to assess the quality of the generated movement patterns. The model represents an improvement on existing standards of police simulation, and points the way toward more nuanced understandings of how police officers influence the criminological environment.     

An integrated approach for evaluating the effectiveness of landslide risk reduction in unplanned communities in the Caribbean

Despite the recognition of the need for mitigation approaches to landslide risk in developing countries, the delivery of ‘on-the-ground’ measures is rarely undertaken. With respect to other ‘natural’ hazards, it is widely reported that mitigation can pay. However, the lack of such an evidence base in relation to landslides in developing countries hinders advocacy amongst decision makers for expenditure on ex-ante measures. This research addresses these limitations directly by developing and applying an integrated risk assessment and cost–benefit analysis of physical landslide mitigation measures implemented in an unplanned community in the Eastern Caribbean. In order to quantify the level of landslide risk reduction achieved, landslide hazard and vulnerability were modelled (before and after the intervention), and project costs, direct and indirect benefits were monetised. It is shown that the probability of landslide occurrence has been substantially reduced by implementing surface-water drainage measures and that the benefits of the project outweigh the costs by a ratio of 2.7–1. This paper adds to the evidence base that ‘mitigation pays’ with respect to landslide risk in the most vulnerable communities—thus strengthening the argument for ex-ante measures. This integrated project evaluation methodology should be suitable for adoption as part of the community-based landslide mitigation project cycle, and it is hoped that this resource, and the results of this study, will stimulate further such programmes.     

Exploring the ‘ethical everyday’: An ethnography of the ethics of family consumption

Using ethnographic research with six families in the North West of England (2007–2009), this paper opens up the ‘black box’ of everyday ethical consumption by adding colour and form to these everyday experiences. While recent geographical literature has recognised the ethical considerations that are implicit in everyday consumption practices, there is a noticeable void of research that explores and fleshes out the everyday ethical actions of individuals and families as consumers. By exploring the everyday ethics of money, waste and health choices in family consumption practices, this paper makes the case for recognising the ethical nature of everyday practices and choices of consumption. It is argued that rather than consumers subscribing to a given set of ethics in consumption, there are multiple ways of recognising consumption as an ethically-embedded process.     

Paleoenvironmental records of water level and climatic changes from the middle to late Holocene at a Lake Erie coastal wetland, Ontario, Canada

Pollen and diatom assemblages, and peat stratigraphies, from a coastal wetland on the northern shore of Lake Erie were used to analyze water level and climatic changes since the middle Holocene and their effects on wetland plant communities. Peat deposition began 4700 cal yr B.P. during the Nipissing II transgression, which was driven by isostatic rebound. At that time, a diatom-rich wild rice marsh existed at the site. Water level dropped at the end of the Nipissing rise at least 2 m within 200 yr, leading to the development of shallower-water plant communities and an environment too dry for most diatoms to persist. The sharp decline in water level was probably driven primarily by outlet incision, but climate likely played some role. The paleoecological records provide evidence for post-Nipissing century-scale transgressions occurring around 2300, 1160, 700 and 450 cal yr B.P. The chronology for these transgressions correlates with other studies from the region and implies climatic forcing. Peat inception in shallow sloughs across part of the study area around 700 cal yr B.P. coincides with the Little Ice Age. These records, considered alongside others from the region, suggest that the Little Ice Age may have resulted in a wetter climate across the eastern Great Lakes region.     

The Green Revolution re-assessed: Insider perspectives on agrarian change in Bulandshahr District, Western Uttar Pradesh, India

In spite of raising Asian per capita food production by 27% and making India food self-sufficient, the Green Revolution has received much criticism for its environmental and socio-economic impacts. Taking on board post-development critiques of ‘speaking for’ Third World ‘others’, this paper seeks to examine the Green Revolution from the points of view of people directly affected by it. Comparative, historically-informed research in three villages for which 1972 baseline data exist reveal that the Green Revolution has ensured, in the words of one marginal farmer that ‘nobody sleeps with an empty stomach nowadays’. Most villagers associate the Green Revolution with increases in living standards and weakening community-based wealth hierarchies. Nevertheless, socio-economic inequalities between certain Scheduled Castes and other villagers are still very apparent.     

Temperature–composition–time (T–X–t) data from authigenic K-feldspar: An integrated methodology for dating fluid flow events

Integration of fluid inclusion analysis with high spatial resolution Ar–Ar dating of K-feldspar cements has been used to resolve and reconstruct palaeo-fluid flow. Fluid inclusion analysis allows discrimination of distinct cement phases, thereby identifying discrete episodes of fluid flow. Ar–Ar dating of the same cements via high spatial resolution laserprobe establishes absolute age constraints on the framework previously constructed. Integration of these two datasets yields temperature–composition–time data.     

Grassroots “flexible specialisation” in Brisbane’s West End: towards a politics of economic possibility

The focus on ‘flexible specialisation’ in the 1980s and 1990s marked an important turning point in framings of economic agency and diversity within economic geography. This article deconstructs the ways in which subjects were framed as ‘flexible’ in both the flexible specialisation literature and later work on the Diverse Economy (Gibson-Graham 1996, 2002, 2006), seeking out particular examples of the ways in which different projects of subjection appear to frame different views of economic possibility. Drawing richly on a case study of residents in an inner-city neighbourhood of West End, Brisbane (Australia), this paper uses resident’s articulations of their everyday practices to reinvigorate some of the ideas of the flexible specialisation literature and challenge, defamiliarise and rework existing ideas of economic life in “First World”, urban contexts.     

Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.     

A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.