An artificial neural network-based response surface method for reliability analyses of <Emphasis Type="Italic">c</Emphasis>-φ slopes with spatially variable soil

This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN)-based response surface method that can be used to predict the failure probability of c-φ slopes with spatially variable soil. In this method, the Latin hypercube sampling technique is adopted to generate input datasets for establishing an ANN model; the random finite element method is then utilized to calculate the corresponding output datasets considering the spatial variability of soil properties; and finally, an ANN model is trained to construct the response surface of failure probability and obtain an approximate function that incorporates the relevant variables. The results of the illustrated example indicate that the proposed method provides credible and accurate estimations of failure probability. As a result, the obtained approximate function can be used as an alternative to the specific analysis process in c-φ slope reliability analyses.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">H-M</Emphasis> bearing capacity of a modified suction caisson determined by using load-/displacement-controlled methods

This paper presents a series of monotonically combined lateral loading tests to investigate the bearing capacity of the MSCs (modified suction caissons) in the saturated marine fine sand. The lateral loads were applied under load- and displacement-controlled methods at the loading eccentricity ratios of 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5. Results show that, in the displacement-controlled test, the deflection-softening behavior of load-deflection curves for MSCs was observed, and the softening degree of the load-deflection response increased with the increasing external skirt length or the decreasing loading eccentricity. It was also found that the rotation center of the MSC at failure determined by the load-controlled method is slightly lower than that by the displacement-controlled method. The calculated MSC capacity based on the rotation center position in serviceability limit state is relatively conservative, compared with the calculated capacity based on the rotation center position in the ultimate limit state. In the limit state, the passive earth pressures opposite the loading direction under load- and displacement-controlled methods decrease by 46% and 74% corresponding to peak values, respectively; however, the passive earth pressures in the loading direction at failure only decrease by approximately 3% and 7%, compared with their peak values.     

Trend and dynamic cause of sediment particle size on the adjacent continental shelf of the Yangtze Estuary

Based on the measured data in recent 20 years, the variation trends of the median grain size of the surface sediment, the sand-silt boundary and the mud area on the adjacent continental shelf of the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed in depth, and the effects of natural mechanism and human activities were discussed. The results show that:(1) In recent years(2006-2013), the median grain size of sediment and the distribution pattern of grouped sediments in the adjacent continental shelf area to the Yangtze Estuary have presented no obvious change compared with those before 2006;(2) The median diameter of the surface sediment in the continental shelf area displayed a coarsening trend with the decrease of sediment discharge from the basin and the drop in suspended sediment concentration in the shore area;(3) In 2004-2007, the sand-silt boundary in the north part(31°30′N) of the continental shelf area presented no significant changes, while that in the south part(31°30′S) moved inwards; In 2008-2013, both the sand-silt boundaries in the north and south parts of the continental shelf area moved inwards, mainly due to the fact that in the dry season, a relatively enhanced hydrodynamic force of the tides was generated in the Yangtze River, as well as a decreased suspended sediment concentration and a flow along the banks in North Jiangsu;(4) The mud area where the maximum deposition rate is found in the Yangtze Estuary, tends to shrink due to the drop in sediment discharge from the basin, and the decrease in suspended sediment concentration in the shore area and erosion in the delta. Moreover, it tended to shift to the south at the same time because the implement of the training works on the deep-water channel of the North Passage changed the split ratio between the North and South Passages with an increase in the power of the discharged runoff in the South Passage.     

Segmentation algorithm for long time series analysis

Time series analysis is an important issue in the earth science-related engineering applications such as hydrology, meteorology and environmetrics. Inconsistency and nonhomogeneity that might arise in a time series yield segments with different statistical characteristics. In this study, an algorithm based on the first order statistical moment (average) of a time series is developed and applied on five time series with length ranging from 84 items to nearly 1,300. Comparison to the existing segmentation algorithms proves the applicability and usefulness of the proposed algorithm in long hydrometeorological and geophysical time series analysis.     

Assessment of three temperature reconstruction methods in the virtual reality of a climate simulation

The performance of statistical climate reconstruction methods in the pre-instrumental period is uncertain, as they are calibrated in a short instrumental period but applied to much longer reconstructions time spans. Here, the virtual reality created by a climate simulation of the past millennium with the model ECHO-G is used as a test bed of three methods to reconstruct the annual Northern Hemisphere temperature. The methods are Composite plus Scaling, the inverse regression method of Mann et al. (Nature 392:779–787, 1998) and a direct principal-components regression method. The testing methodology is based on the construction of pseudo-proxies derived from the climate model output, the application of each of these methods to pseudo-proxy timeseries, and the comparison of their result with the simulated mean temperature. Different structures of the noise have been used to construct pseudo-proxies, ranging from the simulated grid-point precipitation. Also, one sparse and one denser pseudo-proxy network, co-located with two real networks, have been considered. All three methods underestimate the simulated variations of the Northern Hemisphere temperature, but the Composite plus Scaling method clearly displays a better performance and is robust against the different noise models and network size. The most relevant factor determining the skill of the reconstruction appears to be the network size, whereas the different noise models tend to yield similar results.     

Impact of satellite observed microwave SST on the simulation of tropical cyclones

The impact of realistic representation of sea surface temperature (SST) on the numerical simulation of track and intensity of tropical cyclones formed over the north Indian Ocean is studied using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. We have selected two intense tropical cyclones formed over the Bay of Bengal for studying the SST impact. Two different sets of SSTs were used in this study: one from TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) satellite and other is the weekly averaged Reynold’s SST analysis from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). WRF simulations were conducted using the Reynold’s and TMI SST as model boundary condition for the two cyclone cases selected. The TMI SST which has a better temporal and spatial resolution showed sharper gradient when compared to the Reynold’s SST. The use of TMI SST improved the WRF cyclone intensity prediction when compared to that using Reynold’s SST for both the cases studied. The improvements in intensity were mainly due to the improved prediction of surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. The use of TMI SST in place of Reynold’s SST improved cyclone track prediction for Orissa super cyclone but slightly degraded track prediction for cyclone Mala. The present modeling study supports the well established notion that the horizontal SST gradient is one of the major driving forces for the intensification and movement of tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean.     

Colloidal Stability and Toxicity of Gold Nanoparticles and Gold Chloride on <Emphasis Type="Italic">Chlamydomonas reinhardtii</Emphasis>

Here we have examined interactions of gold nanoparticles differing in primary particle size and coating with the green algae Chlamydomonas reinhardtii as function of the colloidal stability of the particles in the experimental media used for toxicity studies. Interactions of dissolved Au³⁺ ions with algae were also examined. Included endpoints were photosynthetic yield and algal growth. Morphological and structural effects were examined microscopically and by flow cytometry. The results indicate no significant toxicity of gold nanoparticles to C. reinhardtii. Analysis of published data suggests toxicity of gold nanoparticles on algal growth to relate rather to particular coatings than to the gold core.     

Hydrochemical and Multivariate Statistical Evaluation of Heavy Metals in Shallow Alluvial Aquifers of North Brahmaputra Plain,India

The aim of this study was to display distribution and relationships of heavy elements in the unconfined, shallow alluvial aquifers of the lower Jia Bharali catchment and adjoining areas in central part of North Brahmaputra Plain (NBP), India using hydrochemical as well as multivariate statistical techniques such as principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis. The original matrix was made up of 10 trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Co, Cr, Fe, Mn, Pb, Ni and Zn) estimated from 50 shallow alluvial dug wells in both the wet and the dry season for a duration of 3 hydrological years (2008–2011). Except As, Cu and Zn all the other toxic metals in the shallow aquifers were found exceeding the WHO maximum permissible limits for drinking water. PCA extracted five varimax factors as geogenic, agricultural and anthropogenic explaining about 71.2% of the total variance in the wet season and 69.3% total variance in the dry season. Hierarchical cluster analysis classified the dug wells into two groups in the wet season and three groups in the dry season with respect to the heavy elements. The results emphasized the need for routine monitoring and management in order to avoid contamination of groundwater sources in the NBP with respect to the dissolved trace elements.     

Recycling of Organic Matter in the Sediments of Santa Monica Basin,California Borderland

Geochemical and isotopic data for the uppermost 1.2 m of the sediments of the central Santa Monica Basin plain were examined to better understand organic matter deposition and recycling at this site. Isotopic signatures (Δ¹⁴C and δ¹³C) of methane (CH₄) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) indicate the occurrence of anaerobic oxidation of CH₄ that is fueled by CH₄ supplied from a relict reservoir that is decoupled from local organic carbon (C_org) degradation and methanogenesis. This finding was corroborated by a flux budget of pore-water solutes across the basal horizon of the profile. Together these results provide a plausible explanation for the anomalously low ratio between alkalinity production and sulfate consumption reported for these sediments over two decades ago. Shifts in Δ¹⁴C and δ¹³C signatures of C_org have previously been reported across the 20-cm depth horizon for this site and attributed to a transition from oxic to anoxic bottom water that occurred ~350 years BP. However, we show that this horizon also coincides with a boundary between the base of a hemipelagic mud section and the top of a turbidite interval, complicating the interpretation of organic geochemical data across this boundary. Radiocarbon signatures of DIC diffusing upward into surface sediments indicate that remineralization at depth is supported by relatively ¹⁴C-enriched C_org within the sedimentary matrix. While the exact nature of this C_org is unclear, possible sources are hemipelagic mud sections that were buried rapidly under thick turbidites, and ¹⁴C-rich moieties dispersed within C_org-poor turbidite sections.     

Ilmenite composition in the Tellnes Fe–Ti deposit,SW Norway: fractional crystallization,postcumulus evolution and ilmenite–zircon relation

Major and trace element XRF and in situ LA-ICP-MS analyses of ilmenite in the Tellnes ilmenite deposit, Rogaland Anorthosite Province, SW Norway, constrains a two stage fractional crystallization model of a ferrodioritic Fe-Ti-P rich melt. Stage 1 is characterized by ilmenite-plagioclase cumulates, partly stored in the lower part of the ore body (Lower Central Zone, LCZ), and stage 2 by ilmenite-plagioclase-orthopyroxene-olivine cumulates (Upper Central Zone, UCZ). The concentration of V and Cr in ilmenite, corrected for the trapped liquid effect, (1) defines the cotectic proportion of ilmenite to be 17.5 wt% during stage 1, and (2) implies an increase of D _V^Ilm during stage 2, most likely related to a shift in fO₂. The proportion of 17.5 wt% is lower than the modal proportion of ilmenite (ca. 50 wt%) in the ore body, implying accumulation of ilmenite and flotation of plagioclase. The fraction of residual liquid left after crystallization of Tellnes cumulates is estimated at 0.6 and the flotation of plagioclase at 26 wt% of the initial melt mass. The increasing content of intercumulus magnetite with stratigraphic height, from 0 to ca. 3 wt%, results from differentiation of the trapped liquid towards magnetite saturation. The MgO content of ilmenite (1.4–4.4 wt%) is much lower than the expected cumulus composition. It shows extensive postcumulus re-equilibration with trapped liquid and ferromagnesian silicates, correlated with distance to the host anorthosite. The Zr content of ilmenite, provided by in situ analyses, is low (<114 ppm) and uncorrelated with stratigraphy or Cr content. The data demonstrate that zircon coronas observed around ilmenite formed by subsolidus exsolution of ZrO₂ from ilmenite. The U-Pb zircon age of 920 ± 3 Ma probably records this exsolution process. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.