The Maoxian landslide as seen from space: detecting precursors of failure with Sentinel-1 data

Post-event Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) analysis on a stack of 45 C-band SAR images acquired by the ESA Sentinel-1 satellites from 9 October 2014 to 19 June 2017 allowed the identification of a clear precursory deformation signal for the Maoxian landslide (Mao County, Sichuan Province, China). The landslide occurred in the early morning of 24 June 2017 and killed more than 100 people in the village of Xinmo. Sentinel-1 images have been processed through an advanced multi-interferogram analysis capable of maximising the density of measurement points, generating ground deformation maps and displacement time series for an area of 460 km² straddling the Minjiang River and the Songping Gully. InSAR data clearly show the precursors of the slope failure in the source area of the Maoxian landslide, with a maximum displacement rate detected of 27 mm/year along the line of sight of the satellite. Deformation time series of measurement points identified within the main scarp of the landslide exhibit an acceleration starting from April 2017. A detailed time series analysis leads to the classification of different deformation behaviours. The Fukuzono method for forecasting the time of failure appear to be applicable to the displacement data exhibiting progressive acceleration. Results suggest that satellite radar data, systematically acquired over large areas with short revisiting time, could be used not only as a tool for mapping unstable areas, but also for landslide monitoring, at least for some typologies of sliding phenomena.     

North Qorveh volcanic field,western Iran: eruption styles,petrology and geological setting

Mineralogy and Petrology - In the metamorphic Sanandaj-Sirjan Zone of western Iran, the “North Qorveh Volcanic Field” is constituted by Pleistocene scoria cones and associated deposits....     

Agricultural performance on marginal land in Eastern Inner Mongolia,China – Development in the pre- and post-1978 reform periods

Rapid economic development in the aftermath of the Chinese post-1978 reforms has resulted in a shrinking of grain grown area in the southern and eastern regions of the country which in turn is believed to have put the marginal northern regions under increased pressure. This paper examines key indicators of agricultural performance as well as cultivated land area development of the pre- and post-1978 reform periods focusing on the agro-pastoral Tongliao City Prefecture, eastern Inner Mongolia. The results are related to the village level development through a case study as well as to the provincial level. Average annual grain per capita production increased from about 400 kg in the late 1970s to more then 1000 kg in the late 1990s. This was achieved through a combination of intensification and reclamation of cropland, with the latter restricted to pastoral classified counties. Production variability, in particular for the low producing counties, has also increased possibly as an effect of the substitution of traditional mixed pattern of crops with HYV monocultures. Average living standards have improved but have been accompanied by widening income gaps. Poor farmers’ livelihoods continue to be insecure, particularly during dry years. Concern is raised regarding the sustainability of the rapid agricultural development; an increased use of costly fertilisers constrains poorer farmer’s economy and may lead to deteriorating water quality while increasing irrigation depletes water resources.     

Assessing the immediate and short-term impact of flooding on residential property participant behaviour

The past decade has seen an increase in the number of significant natural disasters that have caused considerable loss of life as well as damage to all property markets in the affected areas. In many cases, these natural disasters have not only caused significant property damage, but in numerous cases, have resulted in the total destruction of the property in the location. With these disasters attracting considerable media attention, the public are more aware of where these affected property markets are, as well as the overall damage to properties that have been damaged or destroyed. This heightened level of awareness has to have an impact on the participants in the property market, whether a developer, vendor seller or investor. To assess this issue, a residential property market that has been affected by a significant natural disaster over the past 2 years has been analysed to determine the overall impact of the disaster on buyer, renter and vendor behaviour, as well as prices in these residential markets. This paper is based on data from the Brisbane flood in January 2011. This natural disaster resulted in loss of life and partial and total devastation of considerable residential property sectors. Data for the research have been based on the residential sales and rental listings for each week of the study period to determine the level of activity in the specific property sectors, and these are also compared to the median house prices for the various suburbs for the same period based on suburbs being either flood affected or flood free. As there are 48 suburbs included in the study, it has been possible to group these suburbs on a socio-economic basis to determine possible differences due to location and value. Data were accessed from realestate.com.au, a free real estate site that provides details of current rental and sales listings on a suburb basis, RP Data a commercial property sales database and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The paper found that sales listings fell immediately after the flood in the affected areas, but there was no corresponding fall or increase in sales listings in the flood-free suburbs. There was a significant decrease in the number of rental listings follow the flood as affected parties sought alternate accommodation. The greatest fall in rental listings was in areas close to the flood-affected suburbs indicating the desire to be close to the flooded property during the repair period.     

Pre‐Cenomanian vs. Cenozoic folding in the High Atlas revealed by palaeomagnetic data

Palaeomagnetic data, and specifically remagnetizations, are used to constrain the geometric reconstruction at 100 Ma of three anticlines cored by gabbroic intrusions and Triassic shales in the Central High Atlas, Morocco. Previous palaeomagnetic results have revealed that the Mesozoic sediments of this region acquired a pervasive remagnetization at the end of the Early Cretaceous. The restoration of palaeomagnetic vectors to the remagnetization stage (100 Ma) allows us to determine the dip of the beds during this period and, thereby, to reconstruct structures during that time and determine the relative contributions of Mesozoic magmatic/diapiric uplift vs. Cenozoic compression to the present‐day dip. Our results indicate that three major anticlines in the Central High Atlas (Tasraft, Tassent and Tissila) were initiated to different degrees before the Late Cretaceous and were reactivated during Cenozoic compression to acquire their present‐day geometry. We also discuss the origin of these structures.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at a strategic site in the Bay of Bengal

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) along the route of an offshore pipeline for the transport of oil in the Bay of Bengal has been performed, in order to set up design parameters and identify possible geohazards. The complexity of geological and seismotectonic setting of the region where the pipeline is planned to be installed is the result of the interaction of the Indian, Eurasian and Burmese tectonic plates. In order to properly account for the intricate way by which these plates interact, a large area extending 450 km from the pipeline route has been considered for the compilation of a comprehensive earthquake catalogue, spanning the period 1663–2012 AD. Differently from earlier PSHA analyses conducted in the region based on assuming two-dimensional polygons as seismogenic provinces, this study adopted a seismotectonic source model which also includes for the first time a linear tectonic lineament representing the northward extension of the Sunda mega thrust, responsible for the large Sumatra–Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004. Hazard computations have been performed over a grid of sites spaced 0.045° covering a rectangular area which contains the pipeline. Epistemic uncertainty in the hazard computations has been taken into account by a logic tree framework, incorporating different seismotectonic source models, maximum cut-off magnitude and ground-motion prediction equations. Horizontal median uniform hazard spectra and median uniform hazard spectra plus and minus one sigma on stiff ground have been calculated at the selected sites for different return periods. Peak ground acceleration with 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years has been compared with values from previous hazard studies available for Bangladesh.     

Structure and Stability of Non-Transform Discontinuities on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge between 24° N and 30° N

Observations of the median valley within the 24–30° N area ofthe Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR), using the IOSDL high resolutionside-scan sonar instrument TOBI, image four separate areas of themedian valley, containing part or all of nine spreading segments, and fivenon-transform discontinuities between spreading segments (NTDs).These high resolution side scan images were interpreted in parallel withmultibeam bathymetry (Purdy et al., 1990), giving a greater degree ofstructural precision than is possible with the multibeam data alone. Threedistinct types of NTD were identified, corresponding in part to typespreviously identified from the multibeam bathymetric survey of the area.Type 1 NTDs are termed septal offsets, and are marked by a topographic ridgeseparating the two spreading segments. The offset between the spreadingsegments ranges from 9 to 14 km. These can be further subdivided into Type1A in which the septa run parallel to the overall trend of the MAR and Type1B in which the septa lie at a high angle to the bulk ridge trend. Type 1ANTDs are characterised by overlap of the neovolcanic zones of the segmentson each side, and strong offaxis traces, while Type 1B NTDs show no overlapof neovolcanic zones, and weak offaxis traces. Type 2 NTDs arebrittle/ductile extensional shear zones, marked by oblique extensionalfractures, and associated with rotation of tectonic and volcanic structuresaway from the overall trend of the MAR. Type 3 NTDs are associated withoffsets of less than 5 km, and show no sign of any accommodating structure.In this type of NTD, the offset zone is covered with undeformed volcanics.The type of NTD developed at any locality along the ridge axis appears todepend on the amount of segment offset and segment overlap, the overalltrend of the mid-ocean ridge, the width of the zone of discontinuity, themedian valley offset and the longevity of the offset. These factorsinfluence the mechanical properties of the lithosphere across thediscontinuity, and ultimately the tectonic style of the NTD that can besupported. Thus brittle/ductile extensional shear zones are long-livedstructures favoured by large segment offsets, and small or negative segmentoverlaps. Septa can be short or long lived, and are associated with largesegment offsets. Segment overlaps vary from negative (an along axis gap) tozero, for Type 1B septal offsets, or positive to zero for Type 1A septaloffsets. Non-tectonised NTDs are generally short lived structures,characterised by small segment offsets and zero or positive overlaps.     

Impact of ancient metal smelting on arsenic pollution in the Pecora River Valley,Southern Tuscany,Italy

A significant As anomaly has been reported in the literature for stream sediments and unlithified Quaternary deposits of the Pecora River valley in Southern Tuscany, extending from the “Colline Metallifere” pyrite-base metals district to the Tyrrhenian Sea. The As anomaly spreads over several square kilometers around a core that exceeds 500 ppm. Several source contributions (from natural to anthropogenic) have been invoked to explain the observed As distribution in the Pecora Valley, including the metal-working industry which was active in this area, particularly in Etrusco-Roman times and in the Middle Ages. In order to evaluate the contribution of ancient mining and metallurgical activities in the Pecora Valley to elevated As concentrations in the environment, a detailed mineralogical and geochemical survey of metallurgical slags and smelted ore minerals was undertaken from six different sites through the Pecora Valley: Poggio Butelli (Etrusco-Roman iron slags); Sata Creek, Arialla, Marsiliana, Forra and Cascata sites (all Medieval base metals slags). The As content of Etrusco-Roman slags is relatively low (few tens of ppm), whereas Medieval slags show variable, but higher amounts of base metals (±Ag) (ranging from tens to tens of thousands ppm) and As (up to 267 ppm, with average contents of about 40 ppm). Arsenic is mostly partitioned in sulfides disseminated through the glassy groundmass rather than in solid solution with the glassy matrix. Remnants of the ore used for base metal and Ag smelting during the Middle Ages had the highest As contents (up to about 1000 ppm).     

The Bulgheria canyon-fan: a small-scale proximal system in the eastern Tyrrhenian Sea (Italy)

The Bulgheria canyon-fan system in the eastern Tyrrhenian Sea displays well-developed, small-scale, fluvial-like features and has formed alongside the northern slope of the Sapri peri-Tyrrhenian basin. This study reveals, for the first time, the morphology and course of the present-day system as well as the buried elements based on a Digital Terrain Model and high-resolution seismic profiles interpretation. Two adjacent canyons (Infreschi and Luna) originate in the Cilento outer shelf at a short distance from each other and feed an intraslope basin fan through two main sub-parallel channels that run about 12 and 8 km, respectively. Channel and levee development seems to be controlled primarily by the local slope gradient and by Coriolis forces that induce a faster vertical growth of the right-side features, as is often observed in the Northern Hemisphere. Centrifugal forces, on the other hand, have induced episodic flow-stripping at the meander loops and bends, causing local destruction of the main channel levees rather than new levee growth at the outer bends. Overbank deposits are associated with overspill turbidite deposition in the mid fan where a topographic constraint occurs, whereas large-sediment, low-angle wave fields are mainly developed on the outer fan. Buried features and relict morphologies suggest that the Infreschi channel experienced at least two phases of re-incision since the final stages of the middle Pleistocene. Local re-adjustment of outer lobe growth due to channel avulsion and meander abandonment is possibly a consequence of relative base-level fluctuations. The sedimentary record of the mid and outer fan includes outrun mass wasting deposits from extensive failures of the Sapri slope. Indeed, a marked scar is present on the eastern side of the modern outer lobe that indicates the persistency of mass flow passages up to recent times. In addition to the environmental factors that are currently considered to cause canyon formation on the shelf margin, this study proposes the possibility that the head canyon branch close to the mainland was incised by massive and persistent underground freshwater flow from the adjacent aquifer when the sea-level was lower than at present.     

Empirical nonergodic shaking scenarios based on spatial correlation models: An application to central Italy

This paper provides a new methodological framework to generate empirical ground shaking scenarios, designed for engineering applications and civil protection planning. The methodology is useful both to reconstruct the ground motion pattern of past events and to generate future shaking scenarios, in regions where strong‐motion datasets from multiple events and multiple stations are available. The proposed methodology combines (1) an ad‐hoc nonergodic ground motion model (GMM) with (2) a spatial correlation model for the source region‐, site‐, and path‐systematic residual terms, and (3) a model of the remaining aleatory error to take into account for directivity effects. The associated variability is a function of the type of scenario generated (bedrock or site, past or future event) and it is minimal for source areas where several events have occurred and for sites where recordings are available. In order to develop the region‐specific fully nonergodic GMM and to compute robust estimation of the residual terms, the approach is calibrated on a highly dense dataset compiled for the area of central Italy. Example tests demonstrate the validity of the approach, which allows to simulate acceleration response spectra at unsampled sites, as well as to capture peculiar physical features of ground motion patterns in the region. The proposed approach could be usefully adopted for data‐driven simulations of ground shaking maps, as alternative or complementary tool to physic‐based and stochastic‐based approaches.