Shoshonite and sub-alkaline magmas from an ultrapotassic volcano: Sr–Nd–Pb isotope data on the Roccamonfina volcanic rocks,Roman Magmatic Province,Southern Italy

The Roccamonfina volcano is characterised by two stages of volcanic activity that are separated by volcano-tectonic caldera collapses. Ultrapotassic leucite-bearing rocks are confined to the pre-caldera stage and display geochemical characteristics similar to those of other volcanoes in the Roman Province. After the major sector collapse of the volcano, occurred at ca. 400 ka, shoshonitic rocks erupted from cinder cones and domes both within the caldera and on the external flanks of the pre-caldera Roccamonfina volcano. On the basis of new trace element and Sr–Nd–Pb isotope data, we show that the Roccamonfina shoshonitic rocks are distinct from shoshonites of the Northern Roman Province, but are very similar to those of the Neapolitan volcanoes. The last phases of volcanic activity erupted sub-alkaline magmas as enclaves in trachytic domes, and as lavas within the Monte Santa Croce dome. Ultrapotassic rocks of the pre-caldera composite volcano are plagioclase-bearing leucitites characterised by high levels of incompatible trace elements with an orogenic signature having troughs at Ba, Ta, Nb, and Ti, and peaks at Cs, K, Th, U, and Pb. Initial values of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr range from 0.70926 to 0.70999, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ranges from 0.51213 to 0.51217, while the lead isotope rations vary between 18.788–18.851 for ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, 15.685–15.701 for ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, and 39.048–39.076 for ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb. Shoshonites show a similar pattern of trace element depletions and enrichments to the earlier ultrapotassic leucite-bearing rocks but have a larger degree of differentiation and lower concentrations of incompatible trace elements. On the other hand, shoshonitic rocks have Sr, Nd, and Pb isotopes consistently different than pre-caldera ultrapotassic leucite-bearing rocks. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ranges from 0.70665 to 0.70745, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ranges from 0.51234 to 0.51238, ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ranges from 18.924 to 19.153, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ranges from 15.661 to 15.694, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ranges from 39.084 to 39.212. High-K calc-alkaline samples have intermediate isotopic values between ultrapotassic plagioclase leucitites and shoshonites, but the lowest levels of incompatible trace element contents. It is argued that ultrapotassic magmas were generated in a modified lithospheric mantle after crustal-derived metasomatism. Interaction between the metasomatic agent and lithospheric upper mantle produced a low-melting point metasomatised veined network. The partial melting of the veins alone produced pre-caldera leucite-bearing ultrapotassic magmas. It was possibly triggered by either post-collisional isotherms relaxation or increasing T°C due increasing heat flow through slab tears. Shoshonitic magmas were generated by further melting, at higher temperature, of the same metasomatic assemblage with addition 10–20% of OIB-like astenospheric mantle material. We suggest that addition of astenospheric upper mantle material from foreland mantle, flowing through slab tearing after collision was achieved. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Response surface-based robust geotechnical design of supported excavation – spreadsheet-based solution

ABSTRACT

The robust geotechnical design (RGD) approach which involves optimization to obtain a design that is safe, cost-efficient, and robust in the face of uncertainties, can be computationally challenging for complex geotechnical structures. In this study, the RGD approach has become practical by introducing a response surface as a surrogate to finite element- or finite difference-based computer code that is used for analyzing the system, and developing a fast algorithm for the optimization process. For demonstration purposes, a real-world supported excavation project is designed using this modified RGD approach and it is compared with the one designed by a local expert.     

Policy options to streamline the carbon market for agricultural nitrous oxide emissions

The majority of emissions of nitrous oxide – a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) – are from agricultural sources, particularly nitrogen fertilizer applications. A growing focus on these emission sources has led to the development in the United States of GHG offset protocols that could enable payment to farmers for reducing fertilizer use or implementing other nitrogen management strategies. Despite the development of several protocols, the current regional scope is narrow, adoption by farmers is low, and policy implementation of protocols has a significant time lag. Here we utilize existing research and policy structures to propose an ‘umbrella’ approach for nitrogen management GHG emissions protocols that has the potential to streamline the policy implementation and acceptance of such protocols. We suggest that the umbrella protocol could set forth standard definitions common across multiple protocol options, and then modules could be further developed as scientific evidence advances. Modules could be developed for specific crops, regions, and practices. We identify a policy process that could facilitate this development in concert with emerging scientific research and conclude by acknowledging potential benefits and limitations of the approach.

Key policy insights

• Agricultural greenhouse gas market options are growing, but are still underutilized

• Streamlining protocol development through an umbrella process could enable quicker development of protocols across new crops, regions, and practices

• Effective protocol development must not compromise best available science and should follow a rigorous pathway to ensure appropriate implementation

     

Perceived fairness and public acceptability of carbon pricing: a review of the literature

While carbon pricing is widely seen as a crucial element of climate policy and has been implemented in many countries, it also has met with strong resistance. We provide a comprehensive overview of public perceptions of the fairness of carbon pricing and how these affect policy acceptability. To this end, we review evidence from empirical studies on how individuals judge personal, distributional and procedural aspects of carbon taxes and cap-and-trade. In addition, we examine preferences for particular redistributive and other uses of revenues generated by carbon pricing and their role in instrument acceptability. Our results indicate a high concern over distributional effects, particularly in relation to policy impacts on poor people, in turn reducing policy acceptability. In addition, people show little trust in the capacities of governments to put the revenues of carbon pricing to good use. Somewhat surprisingly, most studies do not indicate clear public preferences for using revenues to ensure fairer policy outcomes, notably by reducing its regressive effects. Instead, many people prefer using revenues for ‘environmental projects’ of various kinds. We end by providing recommendations for improving public acceptability of carbon pricing. One suggestion to increase policy acceptability is combining the redistribution of revenue to vulnerable groups with the funding for environmental projects, such as on renewable energy.

Key policy insights

• If people perceive carbon pricing instruments as fair, this increases policy acceptability and support.

• People’s satisfaction with information provided by the government about the policy instrument increases acceptability.

• While people express high concern over uneven distribution of the policy burden, they often prefer using carbon pricing revenues for environmental projects instead of compensation for inequitable outcomes.

• Recent studies find that people’s preferences shift to using revenues for making policy fairer if they better understand the functioning of carbon pricing, notably that relatively high prices of CO₂-intensive goods and services reduce their consumption.

• Combining the redistribution of revenue to support both vulnerable groups and environmental projects, such as on renewable energy, seems to most increase policy acceptability.

     

The nexus between nationally determined contributions and technology needs assessments: a global analysis

The role of technology in combatting climate change through mitigation and adaptation to its inevitable impacts has been acknowledged and highlighted by the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In the developing world, this has received particular attention through the technology needs assessment (TNA) process. As Parties put forward their national pledges to combat climate change, the scarcity of resources makes it important to assess (i) whether national processes designed to tackle climate change are working together and (ii) whether existing national processes should be terminated with the initiation of new ones. This study presents an assessment of the existing TNA process and its linkages to the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. The conclusions stem from an assessment of the TNAs completed to date, as well as 71 NDCs from developing countries at various stages of the TNA process. The analyses show that further developing the TNAs could play a vital role in filling gaps in the existing NDCs, specifically those relating to identifying appropriate technologies, their required enabling framework conditions and preparing implementation plans for their transfer and diffusion.

Key policy insights

• The full potential of the TNAs has still to be rolled out in many countries.

• Developing countries can maximize the potential of their TNAs by further developing them to explicitly analyse what is needed to implement existing NDCs, including by better aligning their focus, scope and up-to-dateness with the priority sectors included in the NDCs.

• Requests of developing countries for international assistance, through technology transfer, will be better guided by the completion of the TNA process.

• Policies for strengthening the NDCs will benefit from the results of completed, ongoing and future TNA processes.

     

Species loss in the brown world: are heterotrophic systems inherently stable?

Determining the effects of species loss on ecosystems has received considerable attention given the current threats many ecosystems are facing. A significant body of research has yielded many insights to this question, but this work has been limited by a focus on ecosystems where primary production plays a significant role in energy transfer. As many ecosystems rely on energy sources that are not derived from in situ production, there is a need to better understand how species loss will affect ecosystems of varying trophic states. To examine the effects of species loss on an ecosystem that is not reliant on in situ primary production, we manipulated the larval amphibian community of temporary forest ponds. These ponds are heterotrophic systems that rely on allochthonous inputs of detritus as a basal energy source. The larvae of two amphibian species that are prone to local extinction, wood frogs (Lithobates sylvatica) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum), were removed from ponds and net ecosystem production was monitored. We found no effects of the removal of these top consumers on ecosystem functioning or on lower trophic groups (i.e., zooplankton, algae, bacteria). While amphibians can influence food web dynamics in other systems, their influence on system processes in temporary forest ponds appears to be limited. We hypothesize that the lack of any effects is due to the microbial degradation of detritus ??swamping?? the system, providing more than enough energy to maintain the food web, and/or due to omnivory dampening species interactions. These data indicate that the functioning of heterotrophic systems may be inherently stable due to internal dynamics that minimize interaction strengths among trophic groups.     

Informal networks and resilience to climate change impacts: A collective approach to index insurance

This article contributes to the understanding of how to proceed with the development of index-insurance in order to reach extended population coverage with the insurance. The approach is applied to an example from a region in Tanzania. One of the main coping strategies that resource-poor households rely on to manage risks related to fluctuations in income flows is risk-sharing in informal networks. An informal network is an ideal way of managing idiosyncratic shocks, but once such shocks become covariate and affect whole communities, as is the case with most climate change impacts, informal networks become insufficient since the majority of risk-sharers will be affected by the shock at the same time. This paper proposes a collective approach to index-insurance in which the members of an informal network will be insured as one insurance taker. The paper raises a conceptual argument that targeting households through existing informal networks will remove a number of prevailing barriers to the take-up of insurance and consequently the approach has the potential to increase households’ resilience to climate change impacts. The policy implications of the conclusions are significant since the number of covariate shocks is predicted to increase with climate change.     

A reanalysis of the relationship between strong westerlies and precipitation in the Great Plains and Midwest regions of North America

A conceptual model relating expanded or strengthened mid-latitude summer westerlies with summer precipitation patterns has been used to explain past drought events in the Great Plains and Midwest of North America, including drought between 1200 and 1400 AD. However, this relationship was originally described using 20 years of instrumental data from the mid 20{th} century, and has not been verified with modern datasets. We reinvestigated the relationship between July westerlies and precipitation in the United States using instrumental records of the last 55 years. We also investigated whether changes in summer zonal flow patterns associated with precipitation anomalies represent a shift in the latitude of peak westerly winds or an increase in wind speed, or a combination of both.Finally, we briefly compare the pattern of precipitation anomalies to paleoclimatic records of drought between 1200 and 1400 AD. Results confirm that strong westerlies are associated with a band of decreased precipitation extending from the northern Rockies into the Midwest. Changes in summer westerlies associated with these patterns are characterized by a strengthening of mean westerly winds, with only a slight southward shift of peak winds over the Atlantic. Changes in the strength of the westerlies over both the Pacific and Atlantic appear to be important to precipitation deficits in the Midwest. Proxy-climate records from 1200 to 1400 AD indicate widespread drought in the Great Plains and Midwest, consistent with the hypothesis of stronger westerlies at this time. However, drought conditions also extended to other regions of North America, indicating a more detailed understanding of the potential causes and synoptic climatology is needed.