Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In this study, the performance of the Generalized LInear Modelling of daily CLImate sequence (GLIMCLIM) statistical downscaling model was assessed to simulate...     

Implementation of Sugeno: ANFIS for forecasting the seismic moment of large earthquakes over Indo-Himalayan region

The earthquake is known to be an unpredictable geophysical phenomenon. Only few seismic indicators and assumptions of earthquakes can be predicted with probable certainty. This study attempts to analyze the earthquakes over the Indo-Himalayan Border region including Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal, China and India during the period from 1995 to 2015. Bangladesh, Bhutan and China borders experience fewer earthquakes than Nepal and India border regions. However, Indo-China rim has inconsistency and vast range in its magnitude. Bangladesh though is a small country with respect to others, but it experiences earthquakes comparable to Bhutan. Nepal experiences highest number of earthquakes. In the last 20 years around 800 records have been observed with moment magnitude > 4.0 Richter scale, while very few records (around 10–12) have been observed for large earthquakes having moment magnitude > 6.0 Richter scale over the region. In this study adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system has been implemented to assess the predictability of seismic moment associated with large earthquakes having the moment magnitude between 6.0 and 8.0 Richter scales using different combination of epochs, technique and membership functions. The Gaussian membership function with hybrid technique and 40 epochs is observed to be the reasonable model on the basis of the selected spatial and temporal scale. The forecast error in terms of root-mean-square error with the stopping criterion 0.001 has been observed to be 0.006 in case of large earthquakes (> 6.5 Richter scale), that is, forecast accuracy of 99.4%. The model bias of 0.6% may be due to inadequate number of large earthquakes having moment magnitude > 6.5 Richter scale over the region.     

Characterization of hydrogeochemical process and evaluation of water quality of seven geothermal springs,Bakreswar, India

A study was conducted in seven geothermal springs located in Bakreswar, District Birbhum, West Bengal, India, in order to assess numerous geochemical processes which were responsible for chemical composition of thermal and mineralized water. The study area lies over the Sone, Narmada, and Tapti lineament of Precambrian Chotanagpur Gneissic Complex. Water chemistry has been carried out based on reaction stoichiometry and geo-statistical tools to identify geochemical process. Piper and Gibbs diagram suggest that the spring water belongs to Ca²⁺-Mg²⁺-HCO₃^??+?CO₃^2? water type and are controlled by rock dominance. Dissolution and precipitation of calcite, dolomite, gypsum, and fluorite minerals were identified as principle source of major ions in seven geothermal spring water. Principle component analyses revealed that major ions of spring water are derived from geogenic processes such as weathering, dissolution, and precipitation of various minerals. Overall results suggest that major ions of the spring’s water are derived from natural origin because no evidence of anthropogenic sources was observed during the study period. This study has also revealed that water quality of spring’s water is not suitable for drinking purposes and quite suitable for irrigation because of high abundance of Na⁺, K⁺, Cl^?, and HCO₃^? ions.     

Delineation of Ground Water Flow in Fractured Rock in the Southwestern Part of Manhattan, New York, Through Use of Advanced Borehole Geophysical Methods

Advanced borehole-geophysical methods were used to assess the geohydrology of fractured crystalline bedrock at five test boreholes in southwestern Manhattan Island, New York, in preparation for construction of a third water tunnel for New York City. The boreholes penetrated gneiss and other crystalline bedrock that has an overall southwest to northwest dipping foliation with a 60° dip. Most of the fractures encountered are either nearly horizontal or have moderate northwest dip azimuths. Fracture indexes range from 0.25 to 0.44 fracture per foot (0.3 m) of borehole.
Electromagnetic (EM) and heat-pulse flowmeter logs obtained under ambient and pumping conditions, together with other geophysical logs, indicate transmissive fracture zones in each borehole. Pumping tests of each borehole indicated transmissivity ranges from <2 to 360 ft²/day (0.2 to 33 m²/day). Ground water appears to flow within an interconnected fracture network toward the south and west within the study area. No correlation was indicated between the fracture index and the total borehole transmissivity.     

Hydrochemistry and origin of salinity in groundwater in parts of Lower Tista Floodplain,northwest Bangladesh

Hydrochemistry in parts of the Lower Tista Floodplain in northwest Bangladesh is dominated by alkalies and weakly acid, having highest concentration of sodium cations and bicarbonate anions respectively. Groundwater is characterized by sodium-calcium and sodium-potassium cation and bicarbonate-chloride-sulphate anion facies, and genetically ‘normal chloride’, ‘normal sulphate’, and ‘normal carbonated’ type, and soft to saline. Based on electrical conductivity values, the area is divided into northern fresh and southern saline groundwater zone, and values like salinity, Na%, SAR, and RSC and a good correlation between Na⁺ and Cl^?, and Cl^? and salinity reveals increasing salinity with depth indicating a mixing of fresh and saline bodies due to marine transgression (?) during Holocene period in the Bengal delta. The rock weathering is likely to affect the groundwater quality by dolomite dissolution and calcium precipitation, representing reverse softening process and is brine seawater. Water extracted from shallow zone (from 20 to 30 m) has suitability for drinking purpose, livestock consumption and irrigation purposes, and partially suitable for industrial use, but that from deeper zone (from 30 to 50 m) is generally poor and unsuitable especially for irrigation purposes with low alkali and moderate to high salinity hazard. So groundwater can be used for irrigation in the area of fine textured soil with proper management practices.     

Use of remote sensing-derived variables in developing a forest fire danger forecasting system

Our aim was to develop a remote sensing-based forest fire danger forecasting system (FFDFS) and its implementation in forecasting 2011 fire season in the Canadian province of Alberta. The FFDFS used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived 8-day composites of surface temperature, normalized multiband drought index, and normalized difference vegetation index as input variables. In order to eliminate the data gaps in the input variables, we propose a gap-filling technique by considering both of the spatial and temporal dimensions. These input variables were calculated during the i period and then integrated to forecast the fire danger conditions into four categories (i.e., very high, high, moderate, and low) during the i + 1 period. It was observed that 98.19 % of the fire fell under “very high” to “moderate” danger classes. The performance of this system was also demonstrated its ability to forecast the worst fires occurred in Slave Lake and Fort McMurray region during mid-May 2011. For example, 100 and 94.0 % of the fire spots fell under “very high” to “high” danger categories for Slave Lake and Fort McMurray regions, respectively.