Volcanic hazards from Bezymianny- and Bandai-type eruptions

Major slope failures are a significant degradational process at volcanoes. Slope failures and associated explosive eruptions have resulted in more than 20 000 fatalities in the past 400 years; the historic record provides evidence for at least six of these events in the past century. Several historic debris avalanches exceed 1 km³ in volume. Holocene avalanches an order of magnitude larger have traveled 50–100 km from the source volcano and affected areas of 500–1500 km². Historic eruptions associated with major slope failures include those with a magmatic component (Bezymianny type) and those solely phreatic (Bandai type). The associated gravitational failures remove major segments of the volcanoes, creating massive horseshoe-shaped depressions commonly of caldera size. The paroxysmal phase of a Bezymianny-type eruption may include powerful lateral explosions and pumiceous pyroclastic flows; it is often followed by construction of lava dome or pyroclastic cone in the new crater. Bandai-type eruptions begin and end with the paroxysmal phase, during which slope failure removes a portion of the edifice. Massive volcanic landslides can also occur without related explosive eruptions, as at the Unzen volcano in 1792.The main potential hazards from these events derive from lateral blasts, the debris avalanche itself, and avalanche-induced tsunamis. Lateral blasts produced by sudden decompression of hydrothermal and/or magmatic systems can devastate areas in excess of 500km² at velocities exceeding 100 m s^–1. The ratio of area covered to distance traveled for the Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny lateral blasts exceeds that of many pyroclastic flows or surges of comparable volume. The potential for large-scale lateral blasts is likely related to the location of magma at the time of slope failure and appears highest when magma has intruded into the upper edifice, as at Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny.Debris avalanches can move faster than 100 ms^–1 and travel tens of kilometers. When not confined by valley walls, avalanches can affect wide areas beyond the volcano's flanks. Tsunamis from debris avalanches at coastal volcanoes have caused more fatalities than have the landslides themselves or associated eruptions. The probable travel distance (L) of avalanches can be estimated by considering the potential vertical drop (H). Data from a catalog of around 200 debris avalanches indicates that the H/L rations for avalanches with volumes of 0.1–1 km³ average 0.13 and range 0.09–0.18; for avalanches exceeding 1 km³, H/L ratios average 0.09 and range 0.5–0.13.Large-scale deformation of the volcanic edefice and intense local seismicity precede many slope failures and can indicate the likely failure direction and orientation of potential lateral blasts. The nature and duration of precursory activity vary widely, and the timing of slope faliure greatly affects the type of associated eruption. Bandai-type eruptions are particularly difficult to anticipate because they typically climax suddenly without precursory eruptions and may be preceded by only short periods of seismicity.     

Lake-ice collapse trenches in Wisconsin,U.S.A.

A series of trenches about a metre deep, 20 to 30 m wide, and as much as 2 km in length occurs in central Wisconsin, along the east shore of proglacial Lake Wisconsin. They are interpreted to be collapse trenches formed when shore ice melted after being buried beneath an expanding outwash plain.     

A chemical survey of the Mississippi estuary

A “snap shot” survey of the Mississippi estuary was made during a period of low river discharge, when the estuarine mixing zone was within the deltaic channels. Concentrations of H⁺, Ca²⁺, inorganic phosphorus and inorganic carbon suggest that the waters of the river and the low salinity (<5‰) portion of the estuary are near saturation with respect to calcite and sedimentary calcium phosphate. An input of oxidized nitrogen species and N₂O was observed in the estuary between 0 and 4‰ salinity. The concentrations of dissolved NH₄ ⁺ and O₂, over most of the estuary, appeared to be influenced by decomposition of terrestrial organic matter in bottom sediments. The estuarine bottom also appears to be a source of CH₄ which has been suggested to originate from petroleum shipping and refining operations. Estuarine mixing with offshore Gulf waters was the dominant influence on distributions of dissolved species over most of the estuary (i.e., from salinities >5‰). The phytoplankton abundance (measured as chlorophylla) increased as the depth of the mixed layer decreased in a manner consistent with that expected for a light-limited ecosystem. Fluxes of NO₃ ^?+NO₂ ^? and soluble inorganic phosphorus to the Gulf of Mexico were estimated to be 3.4±0.2×10³ g N s^?1 and 1.9±0.2 g P s^?1 respectively, at the time of this study.     

The granite problem as exposed in the southern Snake Range,Nevada

A geochemically and mineralogically diverse group of granitoids is present within an area of 900 km² in the southern Snake Range of eastern Nevada. The granitoids exposed range in age from Jurassic through Cretaceous to Oligocene and include two calcic intrusions, two different types of two-mica granites, and aplites. The younger intrusions appear to have been emplaced at progressively more shallow depths. All of these granitoid types are represented elsewhere in the eastern Great Basin, but the southern Snake Range is distinguished by the grouping of all these types within a relatively small area. The Jurassic calcic pluton of the Snake Creek-Williams Canyon area displays large and systematic chemical and mineralogical zonation over a horizontal distance of five km. Although major element variations in the pluton compare closely with Daly's average andesite-dacite-rhyolite over an SiO₂ range of 63 to 76 percent, trace element (Rb, Sr, Ba) variations show that the zonation is the result of in situ fractional crystallization, with the formation of relatively mafic cumulates on at least one wall of the magma chamber. Models of trace element and isotopic data indicate that relatively little assimilation took place at the level of crystallization. Nonetheless, an initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr value of 0.7071 and δ ¹⁸O values of 10.2 to 12.2 permil suggest a lower crustal magma that was contaminated by upper crustal clastic sedimentary rocks before crystallization. The involvement of mantle-derived magmas in its genesis is difficult to rule out. Two other Jurassic plutons show isotopic and chemical similarities to the Snake Creek-Williams Canyon pluton. Cretaceous granites from eastern Nevada that contain phenocrystic muscovite are strongly peraluminous, and have high initial Sr-isotope ratios and other features characteristic of S-type granitoids. They were probably derived from Proterozoic metasediments and granite gneisses that comprise the middle crust of this region. Another group of granitoids (including the Tertiary aplites) show chemical, mineralogic, and isotopic characteristics intermediate between the first two groups and may have been derived by contamination of magmas from the lower crust by the midcrustal metasediments.     

Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

Modeling forced pool–riffle hydraulics in a boulder-bed stream, southern California

The mechanisms which control the formation and maintenance of pool–riffles are fundamental aspects of channel form and process. Most of the previous investigations on pool–riffle sequences have focused on alluvial rivers, and relatively few exist on the maintenance of these bedforms in boulder-bed channels. Here, we use a high-resolution two-dimensional flow model to investigate the interactions among large roughness elements, channel hydraulics, and the maintenance of a forced pool–riffle sequence in a boulder-bed stream. Model output indicates that at low discharge, a peak zone of shear stress and velocity occurs over the riffle. At or near bankfull discharge, the peak in velocity and shear stress is found at the pool head because of strong flow convergence created by large roughness elements. The strength of flow convergence is enhanced during model simulations of bankfull flow, resulting in a narrow, high velocity core that is translated through the pool head and pool center. The jet is strengthened by a backwater effect upstream of the constriction and the development of an eddy zone on the lee side of the boulder. The extent of flow convergence and divergence is quantified by identifying the effective width, defined here as the width which conveys 90% of the highest modeled velocities. At low flow, the ratio of effective width between the pool and riffle is roughly 1:1, indicating little flow convergence or divergence. At bankfull discharge, the ratio of effective width is approximately 1:3 between the pool and downstream riffle, illustrating the strong flow convergence at the pool head. The effective width tends to equalize again with a ratio of 1:1 between the pool and riffle during a modeled discharge of a five-year flood, as the large roughness elements above the pool become drowned out. Results suggest that forced pool–riffle sequences in boulder-bed streams are maintained by flows at or near bankfull discharge because of stage-dependent variability in depth-averaged velocity and tractive force.     

Application and verification of fuzzy algebraic operators to landslide susceptibility mapping

The aim of this study was to apply and to verify the use of fuzzy logic to landslide susceptibility mapping in the Gangneung area, Korea, using a geographic information system (GIS). For this aim, in the study, a data-derived model (frequency ratio) and a knowledge-derived model (fuzzy operator) were combined. Landslide locations were identified by changing the detection technique of KOMPSAT-1 images and checked by field studies. For landslide susceptibility mapping, maps of the topography, lineaments, soil, forest, and land cover were extracted from the spatial data sets, and the eight factors influencing landslide occurrence were obtained from the database. Using the factors and the identified landslide, the fuzzy membership values were calculated. Then fuzzy algebraic operators were applied to the fuzzy membership values for landslide susceptibility mapping. Finally, the produced map was verified by comparing with existing landslide locations for calculating prediction accuracy. Among the fuzzy operators, in the case in which the gamma operator (λ = 0.975) showed the best accuracy (84.68%) while the case in which the fuzzy or operator was applied showed the worst accuracy (66.50%).     

Allocating local groundwater monitoring stations for South Korea using an analytic hierarchy process

A national groundwater-monitoring network consisting of 320 stations has been operated by the Ministry of Construction and Transportation and the Korea Water Resources Corporation since 1995. The network was established as a result of the Groundwater Act of Korea, and a supplementary local groundwater monitoring network containing 10,000 stations will be established throughout the country by the year 2011. A method of allocating stations and organizing the local monitoring network has been developed, based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), using pairwise comparison. Several evaluation criteria were selected for determining the required number of the monitoring stations at specific local districts. Weights of the selected criteria were assigned by the pairwise comparison, reflecting hydrogeological conditions and supported by pertinent questions to 93 groundwater experts. To evaluate appropriateness of this method, an example city, Jeonju, was selected where groundwater levels were monitored; seven stations were determined as to be required for the supplementary groundwater-monitoring network. The study demonstrated the usefulness of the AHP. The concepts of the development and the structure of the AHP model can be applied to site or well selections within a particular district.     

Determining the seasonality of groundwater recharge using water isotopes: a case study from the upper North Han River basin,Korea

The stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen were used to determine the seasonal contributions of precipitation to groundwater recharge at a forested catchment area in the upper North Han River basin, Korea. A comparison of the stable isotopic signatures of groundwater and precipitation indicates that the precipitations which occurred during both the dry and rainy seasons are the important source of groundwater recharge in this region. A stable isotopic signature shown in the stream waters at the upstream reaches is similar to that of groundwaters, indicating that stream waters are mostly fed by groundwater discharge. Reservoir waters in the downstream flood control dams have lower deuterium excess values or d-values compared with those of the upstream waters, indicating a secondary evaporative enrichment. These results can provide a basis for the effective management of groundwater and stream water resources in the North Han River basin.