Changes of precipitation extremes over South Korea projected by the 5 RCMs under RCP scenarios

The change of extreme precipitation is assessed with the HadGEM2-AO - 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) chain, which is a national downscaling project undertaken cooperatively by several South Korean institutes aimed at producing regional climate change projection with fine resolution (12.5 km) around the Korean Peninsula. The downscaling domain, resolution and lateral boundary conditions are held the same among the 5 RCMs to minimize the uncertainties from model configuration. Climatological changes reveal a statistically significant increase in the mid-21st century (2046- 2070; Fut1) and the late-21st century (2076-2100; Fut2) precipitation properties related to extreme precipitation, such as precipitation intensity and average of upper 5 percentile daily precipitation, with respect to the reference period (1981-2005). Changes depending on the intensity categories also present a clear trend of decreasing light rain and increasing heavy rain. In accordance with these results, the change of 1-in-50 year maximum precipitation intensity over South Korea is estimated by the GEV method. The result suggests that the 50-year return value (RV50) will change from -32.69% to 72.7% and from -31.6% to 96.32% in Fut1 and from -31.97% to 86.25% and from -19.45% to 134.88% in Fut2 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the 90% confidence level. This study suggests that multi-RCMs can be used to reduce uncertainties and assess the future change of extreme precipitation more reliably. Moreover, future projection of the regional climate change contains uncertainties evoked from not only driving GCM but also RCM. Therefore, multi-GCM and multi-RCM studies are expected to provide more robust projection.     

一个海气耦合模式对东亚夏季气候预测潜力的评估

利用一个具有较高分辨率的海气耦合模式SINTEX-F(Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change coupled GCM)的多年回报结果,评估了该海气耦合模式对东亚区域,尤其是中国地区气候异常的预测潜力.与观测实况的比较结果表明:SINTEX-F模式对夏季降水、500 hPa高度场和地表气温都有一定的预测技巧,但是相比而言降水与高度场的回报技巧要高于地表气温;而且耦合模式对东亚地区气候异常的主要空间分布和年际变化特征也有较好的预测潜力,对500 hPa高度场效果较好;对降水异常的年际变化也有一定的预测潜力,尤其是我国中部地区效果较好,但是模式预测的降水异常的幅值较观测相对偏弱;此外对我国西部的极端气候也有一定的预测潜力.     

峨眉山大火成岩省太和花岗岩的成因及构造意义

攀西地区的太和花岗质岩体和赋存超大型钒钛磁铁矿矿床的辉长岩体在空间上共生,成因上均与峨眉山地幔柱头的上升密切相关.太和花岗质岩体主要由超碱质花岗岩和石英正长岩及少量正长岩组成;富含高场强元素并具高Ga/Al值(3.74～5.63),显示典型A型花岗岩的特征.花岗岩、正长岩和辉长岩的Nb/Ta和Zr/Hf值与洋岛玄武岩(OIB)的相应比值近似.花岗质岩石具较低的87Sr/86Sr初始值(0.7025～0.7049)和正的εNd(t)值(1.9～3.5),与辉长岩的值相近[(87Sr/86Sr)i =0.7049～0.7052; εNd(t) =2.4～3.3].太和花岗质岩体的εNd(t)为正值,显示地幔柱来源的底侵玄武质岩浆对其形成起主要作用.辉长质和花岗质岩石具相似的钕同位素组成,表明其母岩浆来自于同一源区.我们认为太和花岗质侵入体主要由底侵于下地壳的玄武质岩浆分异出的花岗质熔体侵位及随后经结晶分异而形成.因此,晚古生代时幔源岩浆底侵造成的地壳增生在峨眉山大火成岩省中表现极为显著.     

涡北河网区三维地震采集技术

涡北勘探区属于河网地带,难以进行正常的地震施工。为此,本文提出了一种以规则束状观测为基础和特殊观测系统相结合的数据采集方法。该方法适应了这种复杂的地表条件,获得了"空白区"的地震资料,为今后类似地表条件地区的三维地震勘探提供了经验。      

龙门山山前地带的地震活动

对于龙门山山前地带的地震活动,还很少有人进行研究,似乎至今尚未见到有公开发表的文献.但是,龙门山山前地带是人口稠密、经济发达的地区,又紧邻特大城市--成都市,在汶川大地震后,人们对于龙门山山前地带的地震活动给予了更多的关注,研究这一问题具有极为重大的意义.笔者认为,龙门山山前地带既应当包括著名的龙门山山前隐伏断裂带,也应当包括主要在邛崃市境内的天台山一出江雁列带.     

水库泥沙淤积量风险分析

水库泥沙淤积是水库工程较为重要的问题，由于水库泥沙淤积受到来水、来沙和水库运行情况等不确定性因素的影响，水库实际淤积量存在超过设计标准的风险性。本文以来水，来沙为主要的不确定性因素，通过对来水、来沙序列的随机模拟和水库冲淤计算，分析水库冲淤积量的风险度，为水库的风险决策提供依据。     

Alentiana palinpoda,a new commensal polynoid species from a seamount in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

Alentiana has only one member, A. aurantiaca(Verrill, 1885), commensal with sea anemone(Bolocera tuediae).Here, Alentiana palinpoda sp. nov., a second member in the genus Alentiana(subfamily Lepidastheniinae), a new commensal polynoid is described, based on a specimen collected from a deep-water seamount in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The new species is characterized by large elytra that completely cover the dorsum and are present in every third segment in the posterior regions. Neuropodia are ...     

浅谈人力资源管理在社会发展中的重要作用

本文就如何开发利用人力资源做了深入的探讨,论述了人力资源管理在社会发展中的重要作用。     

准噶尔盆地滴南凸起-阜北斜坡区原油地球化学特征及来源

滴南凸起-阜北斜坡区位于准噶尔盆地中央隆起带东段,其周缘地区有多个生烃凹陷,发育四套烃源岩,具复杂的油源关系。为厘清该区中上侏罗统油源关系,利用多项地化指标进行油源对比,结果表明:A类原油具轻碳同位素,植烷优势明显,高伽马蜡烷指数,表现出了湖相母质输入的特点,与二叠系泥岩具良好亲缘关系;B类原油具重碳同位素,姥鲛烷优势,几乎不含伽马蜡烷等特征,反映了原油母质形成于强氧化的沉积环境,与侏罗系泥岩同源;C类原油各项指标介于以上两类原油之间,是二叠系与侏罗系烃源岩的混源。     

地震反演技术在辽河兴隆台地区沙三段储层预测中的应用

地震反演是储层预测三大技术系列的核心,其充分利用地震资料在横向分辨率、测井资料在纵向分辨率上的优势,对储层的空间分布特征进行合理的预测。在对辽河兴隆台地区沙三段地层特征、储层难点分析的基础上,通过地震资料品质的研究与正演分析、测井曲线标准化处理、子波提取与精细合成记录标定等前期处理工作,优选反演参数,并应用约束稀疏脉冲反演技术对沙三段进行了储层预测,精细地刻画了储层的空间展布特征,并落实和优选了2个有利圈闭,部署探井2口,为该区的井位部署及储量上报提供了地质依据。