Impact of satellite observed microwave SST on the simulation of tropical cyclones

The impact of realistic representation of sea surface temperature (SST) on the numerical simulation of track and intensity of tropical cyclones formed over the north Indian Ocean is studied using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. We have selected two intense tropical cyclones formed over the Bay of Bengal for studying the SST impact. Two different sets of SSTs were used in this study: one from TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) satellite and other is the weekly averaged Reynold’s SST analysis from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). WRF simulations were conducted using the Reynold’s and TMI SST as model boundary condition for the two cyclone cases selected. The TMI SST which has a better temporal and spatial resolution showed sharper gradient when compared to the Reynold’s SST. The use of TMI SST improved the WRF cyclone intensity prediction when compared to that using Reynold’s SST for both the cases studied. The improvements in intensity were mainly due to the improved prediction of surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. The use of TMI SST in place of Reynold’s SST improved cyclone track prediction for Orissa super cyclone but slightly degraded track prediction for cyclone Mala. The present modeling study supports the well established notion that the horizontal SST gradient is one of the major driving forces for the intensification and movement of tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean.     

Past and future sea-level rise along the coast of North Carolina,USA

We evaluate relative sea level (RSL) trajectories for North Carolina, USA, in the context of tide-gauge measurements and geological sea-level reconstructions spanning the last ~11,000 years. RSL rise was fastest (~7 mm/yr) during the early Holocene and slowed over time with the end of the deglaciation. During the pre-Industrial Common Era (i.e., 0–1800 CE), RSL rise (~0.7 to 1.1 mm/yr) was driven primarily by glacio-isostatic adjustment, though dampened by tectonic uplift along the Cape Fear Arch. Ocean/atmosphere dynamics caused centennial variability of up to ~0.6 mm/yr around the long-term rate. It is extremely likely (probability P=0.95) that 20th century RSL rise at Sand Point, NC, (2.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr) was faster than during any other century in at least 2,900 years. Projections based on a fusion of process models, statistical models, expert elicitation, and expert assessment indicate that RSL at Wilmington, NC, is very likely (P=0.90) to rise by 42–132 cm between 2000 and 2100 under the high-emissions RCP 8.5 pathway. Under all emission pathways, 21st century RSL rise is very likely (P>0.90) to be faster than during the 20th century. Due to RSL rise, under RCP 8.5, the current ‘1-in-100 year’ flood is expected at Wilmington in ~30 of the 50 years between 2050-2100.     

Influence of Environmental Factors on Spawning of the American Horseshoe Crab (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Limulus polyphemus</Emphasis>) in the Great Bay Estuary,New Hampshire,USA

The Great Bay Estuary, New Hampshire, USA is near the northern distribution limit of the American horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus). This estuary has few ideal beaches for spawning, yet it supports a modest population of horseshoe crabs. There is no organized monitoring program in the Great Bay Estuary, so it is unclear when and where spawning occurs. In this 2-year study (May through June, 2012 and 2013), >5,000 adult horseshoe crabs were counted at four sites in the estuary. The greatest densities of horseshoe crabs were observed at Great Bay sites in the upper, warmer reaches of the estuary. Peaks of spawning activity were not strongly correlated with the times of the new or full moons, and similar numbers of horseshoe crabs were observed mating during daytime and nighttime high tides. While many environmental factors are likely to influence the temporal and spatial patterns of spawning in this estuary, temperature appears to have the most profound impact.     

The variation patterns and correlations of total phosphorus, organic phosphorus and phosphate in the Changjiang Estuary

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Molecular ecological study of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Siganus spinus</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">S. guttatus</Emphasis> from Okinawan waters based on mitochondrial DNA control region sequences

The mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region was sequenced to examine the genetic variability and gene flow of juvenile Siganus spinus and S. guttatus. In total, 461 nucleotide sequences were obtained from 69 specimens of juvenile S. spinus from Okinawa Island and Ishigaki Island, in which 17 variable sites and 22 haplotypes were identified. Haplotype diversity (h) was high (0.9244 in Okinawa and 0.8984 in Ishigaki), whereas nucleotide diversity (π) was low (0.0063 in Okinawa and 0.0059 in Ishigaki). The two populations were not genetically distinct. Siganus guttatus, which do not form large schools at recruitment, in contrast S. spinus, were also analyzed by studying 152 individuals collected off Okinawa Island, Miyako Island, and Ishigaki Island. Of 476 nucleotide sequences, 50 were variable, and 42 haplotypes were identified. Genetic variability values were high (h = 0.8766 and π = 0.0151 in Okinawa; h = 0.9640 and π = 0.0192 in Miyako; h = 0.9161 and π = 0.0199 in Ishigaki). The Okinawa population was genetically isolated from the Miyako and Ishigaki populations. As a result, genetic diversity was high for each of these siganid populations despite their being target species for fisheries; however, the degree of inter-population gene flow was higher for S. spinus than S. guttatus, suggesting that these species exhibit different dispersal strategies.     

Discrimination of spurious self-correlation in nondimensionalized analyses of fluid dynamical data

Nondimensionalization of variables enables us to treat experiment data much more simply and efficiently by decreasing the number of variables. In some cases, trivial conclusions (which Kenney, 1982, called spurious self-correlation) result from a formal application of dimensional analyses. In contrast, in some cases fully significant conclusions can be derived. We first discuss how to construct nondimensional variables retaining the physical meanings of variables. We then propose simple and efficient methods, especially the use of “spurious triangle (SpT)”, to discriminate between significant conclusions and spurious self-correlations in the analysis of nondimensionalized variables.     

Seasonal variations of the surface currents in the Tsushima Strait

Seasonal variations of the surface currents in the Tsushima Strait were investigated by analyzing the monthly mean surface currents measured with HF radar. Several new features of the surface currents have been found. One notable feature is the large, complicated seasonal variation in the current structure in the eastern channel of the strait. For example, in the southeastern and northwestern regions of the channel, southwestward countercurrents are found in summer while southeastward acrossshore currents are found in autumn and winter. The wind-driven flow (Ekman flow) as well as surface geostrophic currents are responsible for these complicated variations of the surface currents. To quantify each variation of the flow and current, the wind-driven flow was calculated from the monthly wind (more precisely, the friction velocity) using the monthly speed factor and deflection angle estimated in our previous study, and the surface geostrophic currents were then estimated by subtracting the wind-driven flow from the measured surface currents. It was found that the acrossshore currents are the wind-driven flow, and that the surface geostrophic currents flow almost in the along-shore direction, indicating the validity of the decomposition of the surface velocity into the wind-driven flow and the geostrophic currents using the speed factor and deflection angle. A real-vector empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the surface geostrophic currents shows a pair of eddies in the lee of Tsushima and Iki Islands as the first mode, which indicates that the southwestward countercurrents in the eastern channel are formed primarily by the incoming Tsushima Warm Current.     

Crossing Filaments

Solar filaments show the position of large-scale polarity-inversion lines and are used for the reconstruction of large-scale solar magnetic field structure on the basis of Hα synoptic charts for the periods that magnetographic measurements are not available. Sometimes crossing filaments are seen in Hα filtergrams. We analyze daily Hα filtergrams from the archive of Big Bear Solar Observatory for the period of 1999 – 2003 to find crossing and interacting filaments. A number of examples are presented and filament patterns are compared with photospheric magnetic field distributions. We have found that all crossing filaments reveal quadrupolar magnetic configurations of the photospheric field and presume the presence of null points in the corona.     

Chlorine-36 in groundwater of the United States: empirical data

Natural production of the radionuclide chlorine-36 (³⁶Cl) has provided a valuable tracer for groundwater studies. The nuclear industry, especially the testing of thermonuclear weapons, has also produced large amounts of ³⁶Cl that can be detected in many samples of groundwater. In order to be most useful in hydrologic studies, the natural production prior to 1952 should be distinguished from more recent artificial sources. The object of this study was to reconstruct the probable preanthropogenic levels of ³⁶Cl in groundwater in the United States. Although significant local variations exist, they are superimposed on a broad regional pattern of ³⁶Cl/Cl ratios in the United States. Owing to the influence of atmospherically transported ocean salt, natural ratios of ³⁶Cl/total Cl are lowest near the coast and increase to a maximum in the central Rocky Mountains of the United States. Electronic Publication