Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change

Investigating the relationships between climate extremes and crop yield can help us understand how unfavourable climatic conditions affect crop production. In this study, two statistical models, multiple linear regression and random forest, were used to identify rainfall extremes indices affecting wheat yield in three different regions of the New South Wales wheat belt. The results show that the random forest model explained 41–67% of the year-to-year yield variation, whereas the multiple linear regression model explained 34–58%. In the two models, 3-month timescale standardized precipitation index of Jun.–Aug. (SPI_JJA), Sep.–Nov. (SPI_SON), and consecutive dry days (CDDs) were identified as the three most important indices which can explain yield variability for most of the wheat belt. Our results indicated that the inter-annual variability of rainfall in winter and spring was largely responsible for wheat yield variation, and pre-growing season rainfall played a secondary role. Frequent shortages of rainfall posed a greater threat to crop growth than excessive rainfall in eastern Australia. We concluded that the comparison between multiple linear regression and machine learning algorithm proposed in the present study would be useful to provide robust prediction of yields and new insights of the effects of various rainfall extremes, when suitable climate and yield datasets are available.     

Elastic and visco-elastic stress triggering in the South Iceland Seismic Zone due to large earthquakes since 1706

Damaging earthquakes in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) occur fairly regularly and often as a series of events with a few days only between individual events. Tolerably reliable information on epicentre locations and mechanisms are available for 13 M ≥ 6 events between 1706 and 2000. For these events, we computed the co- and post-seismic stress fields, hereby approximating the SISZ by a mixed elastic/visco-elastic layered half-space. The horizontal shear stress and the Coulomb stress changes were analysed to detect possible trigger mechanisms, which may aid future earthquake mitigation efforts. We tested several criteria but must conclude that the start of an earthquake series in the SISZ cannot be explained by triggering through previous events. Inside an individual series, however, one may infer triggering. Our results are in contradiction with the findings in other regions of the world. The reason might be related to the fact that the SISZ is not a mature fault zone, in which old faults are re-activated if a certain stress level threshold is passed. In addition, uncertainties in the model parameters as well as the neglect of horizontal variations in the model and of possible stress transfer due to volcanic activity further complicate the evaluation of our results and need to be taken into account in future studies.     

The provenance of Australian uranium ore concentrates by elemental and isotopic analysis

Elemental and isotopic ratio analyses of U ore concentrate samples, from the 3 operating U mining facilities in Australia, were carried out to determine if significant variations exist between their products, thereby allowing the U ore concentrate’s origin to be identified. Elemental analyses were conducted using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRF). Lead isotope ratios were measured using ICP-MS and U isotope analyses were conducted using thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (TIMS). Minute quantities of sample, such as that obtained from a swipe, were also examined for elemental concentrations using secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS). The results of multivariate statistical analysis show clear patterns in the trace elemental composition of the processed U ores, indicating that it is possible to use this feature as a unique identifier of an Australian U ore concentrate’s source. Secondary ion mass spectrometry analyses also allow individual particles to be differentiated using this ‘fingerprinting’ technique. Isotope ratios determined using TIMS reveal that there is a significant difference in the n(²³⁴U)/n(²³⁸U) isotope ratio between the U ore concentrate from each mine.     

Magnesium isotope fractionation in silicate melts by chemical and thermal diffusion

Two types of laboratory experiments were used to quantify magnesium isotopic fractionations associated with chemical and thermal (Soret) diffusion in silicate liquids. Chemical diffusion couples juxtaposing a molten natural basalt (SUNY MORB) and a molten natural rhyolite (Lake County Obsidian) were run in a piston cylinder apparatus and used to determine the isotopic fractionation of magnesium as it diffused from molten basalt to molten rhyolite. The thermal diffusion experiments were also run in a piston cylinder apparatus but with a sample made entirely of molten SUNY MORB displaced from the hotspot of the assembly furnace so that the sample would have a temperature difference of about 100-200 °C from one end to the other. The chemical diffusion experiments showed fractionations of ²⁶Mg/²⁴Mg by as much as 7‰, which resulted in an estimate for the mass dependence of the self-diffusion coefficients of the magnesium isotopes corresponding to D_26Mg/D_24Mg=(24/26)^β with β = 0.05. The thermal diffusion experiments showed that a temperature difference of about 100 °C resulted in the MgO, CaO, and FeO components of the basalt becoming slightly enriched by about 1 wt% in the colder end while SiO₂ was enriched by several wt% in the hotter end. The temperature gradient also fractionated the magnesium isotopes. A temperature difference of about 150 °C produced an 8‰ enrichment of ²⁶Mg/²⁴Mg at the colder end relative to the hotter end. The magnesium isotopic fractionation as a function of temperature in molten basalt corresponds to 3.6 × 10⁻²‰/°C/amu.     

Channel avulsion and river metamorphosis: The case of the Thomson River,Victoria, Australia

Channel avulsion occurred on the Thomson River in Victoria, Australia, in 1952 along a 12 km length of the valley. A comparison of the old and new channels reveals considerable differences in channel characteristics. The old channel was perched above the floodplain on an alluvial ridge such that when bankfull capacity was exceeded, floodwaters concentrated on the lowest part of the floodplain some distance away. This is where the new channel formed. It is an incised channel with larger capacity and longer meander wavelength than the old channel and is also shorter and steeper. The new channel is subject to larger floodflows and a more variable flood regime than the old course because of the differences in the channel/floodplain relationship and channel capacity. The resulting concentration of stream power along the new course is responsible for the contrast in channel characteristics and for the more rapid meander migration. This example shows that river metamorphosis can occur without major environmental changes. Measures of channel geometry such as gradient, sinuosity, and meander wavelength therefore cannot be used in palaeohydrological work to infer climatic or other environmental changes without independent supporting evidence. Differences in channel geometry can arise simply from changes in the relationship between the channel and its loodplain.     

Talc-chlorite-amphibole felses of the KTB pilot hole,Oberpfalz, Bavaria: Protolith characteristics and phase relationships

Summary The metagabbro-amphibolite sequences in the KTB pilot hole contain intercalations of talc-chlorite-amphibole felses (or hosbachites), which show transitional contacts to the adjacent metagabbros. The hosbachites are characterized by relics of a primary igneous texture and still contain igneous minerals like clinopyroxene, biotite and pseudomorphs after olivine, while brown Ca-amphibole was presumably formed in a late-magmatic stage. The geological, textural, mineralogical and geochemical evidence indicates that the hösbachites were derived from ultramafic cumulates, differentiated from a basaltic magma, either in the inner parts of dolerite sills or in small gabbro intrusions. A pervasive metamorphic overprint under medium-pressure, amphibolite-facies conditions which was accompanied by penetrative deformation led to assemblages with green Ca-amphibole ± anthophyllite ± cummingtonite ± tremolite/actinolite + clinochlore + talc + olivine + ilmenite ± Cr-bearing spinel + sulfides. Phase relationships are consistent with a prograde P-T path leading to the formation of anthophyllite from olivine + talc at peak metamorphic temperatures of 640–700°C, at assumed pressures of 8-10 kbar, similar to those derived from mineral assemblages in the adjacent metabasites and metasediments. High-pressure relics locally present in coronitic metagabbros and retrograded eclogites of the KTB pilot hole were not recognized in the hosbachites. A retrograde overprint under greenschist-facies conditions led to the total replacement of igneous or metamorphic olivine by aggregates of antigorite + magnetite, chloritization of biotite and the formation of late tremolite/ actinolite.

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Zusammenfassung Talk- Chlorit-Amphibol-Felse der KTB-Vorbohrung, Oberpfalz: Eduktcharakteristik und Phasenbeziehungen Die Metagabbro-Amphibolit-Folge in der KTB-Vorbohrung enthält Einschaltungen von Talk-Chlorit-Amphibol-Felsen (Hosbachite), die graduelle Übergänge zu den benachbarten Metagabbros aufweisen. Die Hosbachite sind durch Relikte von primären magmatischen Gefügen gekennzeichnet and führen noch magmatische Mineralrelikte wie Klinopyroxen, Biotit and Pseudomorphosen nach Olivin, während brauner CaAmphibol wahrscheinlich spdtmagmatisch gebildet wurde. Verbandsverhältnisse, Reliktgefüge und Reliktminerale sowie Haupt- und Spurenelement-Geochemie sprechen dafür, daß die Hosbachite auf ultramafische Kumulate zurückgehen, die aus einem basischen Magma differenziert wurden, and zwar entweder im Innern von doleritischen Lagergängen oder in kleinen Gabbro-Intrusionen.Eine durchgreifende metamorphe Überprägung unter Bedingungen der Mitteldruck Amphibolitfazies, die von einer penetrativen Deformation begleitet war, fuhrte zu Mineralparagenesen mit grünern Ca-Amphibol ± Anthophyllit ± Cummingtonit + Tremolit/Aktinolith + Klinochlor + Talk + Olivin + Ilmenit + Cr-haltigem Spinell + Sulfiden.Die Phasenbeziehungen weisen darauf hin, daß sich im Zuge eines prograden P-TPfades Anthophyllit aus der Paragenese Olivin + Talk bildete. Als P-T-Bedingungen beim Hbhepunkt der Metamorphose können Temperaturen von 640–700°C in einem angenommenen Druckbereich von 8-10 kbar abgeschätzt wurden, ähnlich wie sie auch aus den Mineralparagenesen in den angrenzenden Metabasiten and Metasedimenten der KTB-Vorbohrung ableitbar sind. Hochdruckrelikte, die gelegentlich in koronitischen Metagabbros and retrograd überprägten Eklogiten der KTB-Vorbohrung auftreten, wurden in den Hösbachiten nicht gefunden. Eine retrograde Überprägung unter grünschieferfaziellen Bedingungen führte zu einer vollständigen Verdrängung von magmatischem und metamorphem Olivin durch Aggregate von Antigorit + Magnetit, zur Chloritisierung von Biotit und zur Bildung einer späten Generation von Tremolit/ Aktinolith.

     

Balanced Sediment Fluxes in Southern California’s Mediterranean-Climate Zone Salt Marshes

Salt marsh elevation and geomorphic stability depends on mineral sedimentation. Many Mediterranean-climate salt marshes along southern California, USA coast import sediment during El Niño storm events, but sediment fluxes and mechanisms during dry weather are potentially important for marsh stability. We calculated tidal creek sediment fluxes within a highly modified, sediment-starved, 1.5-km² salt marsh (Seal Beach) and a less modified 1-km² marsh (Mugu) with fluvial sediment supply. We measured salt marsh plain suspended sediment concentration and vertical accretion using single stage samplers and marker horizons. At Seal Beach, a 2014 storm yielded 39 and 28 g/s mean sediment fluxes and imported 12,000 and 8800 kg in a western and eastern channel. Western channel storm imports offset 8700 kg exported during 2 months of dry weather, while eastern channel storm imports augmented 9200 kg imported during dry weather. During the storm at Mugu, suspended sediment concentrations on the marsh plain increased by a factor of four; accretion was 1–2 mm near creek levees. An exceptionally high tide sequence yielded 4.4 g/s mean sediment flux, importing 1700 kg: 20 % of Mugu’s dry weather fluxes. Overall, low sediment fluxes were observed, suggesting that these salt marshes are geomorphically stable during dry weather conditions. Results suggest storms and high lunar tides may play large roles, importing sediment and maintaining dry weather sediment flux balances for southern California salt marshes. However, under future climate change and sea level rise scenarios, results suggest that balanced sediment fluxes lead to marsh elevational instability based on estimated mineral sediment deficits.     

Geochemical mobility of arsenic in the surficial waters from Argentina

The presence of arsenic (As) in surface water constitutes an important environmental risk, where mobility and adsorption processes are responsible for its behavior in the sediment–water interface. Therefore, the assessment of adsorption, mobility and water availability of arsenic in freshwater sediments, with agricultural, livestock and urban soil uses was performed. Arsenic concentrations in sediments ranged from 5.4 to 15.9 mg kg^?1 (total) and 2.8 to 6.5 mg kg^?1 (labile), and those of iron and manganese were 11,563–23,500 and 140.6–662.1 mg kg^?1, respectively. The As levels in water were significantly lower than those of sediments. Results would suggest that As co-precipitation and adsorption on Fe oxides are probably the major route of immobilization, determining its low lability. Manganese did not present an outstanding contribution to the retention, and cation-exchange capacity, pH and organic matter of sediments did not show an influence on the mobility of As.