Spit and Inlet Morphodynamics of a Tropical Coastal Lagoon

The morphological changes of spits and inlets of the Chilika lagoon, the largest brackish water tropical coastal lagoon in Asia, are investigated using real-time kinematic GPS observation and numerical models during 2009–2013. The seasonal/interannual variations of the spit and inlet cross-sectional areas with varying widths and depths are recorded in association with different physical processes. The results show significant changes in spit morphology: particularly, the south spit accreted continuously, while the middle and north spits eroded. The cross-sectional depth of inlets becomes narrower and deeper during summer and winter seasons, while they are wider and shallower during the monsoon. The model results show that sediment transport rate is larger during monsoon and summer, while it is relatively less during the winter. Alongshore, sediment transport is predominantly northward throughout the study period. The result shows that gain/loss of the spits and closure/opening of inlets are significantly controlled by the high wave power, longshore drifts, and river discharge. The study demonstrates that the combined use of observational and numerical models is very effective to understand the changes of spit and inlet morphology and their impact on ecological conditions of the lagoon environment.     

Geodynamic Implications for the 8 October 2005 North Pakistan Earthquake

We propose here that the 8 October 2005 North Pakistan earthquake occurred beneath the wedge-top of Balakot Formation in the Hazara-Kashmir syntaxial area. Slip occurred along the Muzaffarabad thrust, a southeast extended part of the Indus-Kohistan seismic zone. Tectonic loading of the high-density wedge/thrust sheet between the wedge-top and the descending Indian lithosphere coupled with continued flexural tectonics provoked this earthquake. The obliquely converging Indian plate along with block rotations led to development of a pinned zone around Northwestern Syntaxis of the Himalayas. Strain adjustment related to the rotational deformation processes resulted in the buckling of the more competent rock-units sandwiched between the less competent rock-units around the Hazara-Kashmir syntaxis. The western limb of the buckled unit gave rise to the development of thrusts and associated oblique slip in the inner arc of the competent rock-unit. The observations demonstrate reactivated tectonic movement along the growing fracture-tip of the buried Riasi thrust.     

Internal waves over the shelf in the western Bay of Bengal: a case study

Generation and propagation of internal waves (IWs) in the coastal waters of the extended shelf of the western Bay of Bengal are investigated for late winter by using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm). The model is forced with astronomical tides and daily winds. Monthly climatological temperature and salinity fields are used as initial conditions. The simulations are compared with time series observations of temperature and currents from acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) moored at three locations south of Gopalpur: two at a local depth of 100 m and another at 400-m depth during 19–21 February 2012. The comparison of the spectral estimates for the time series of temperature from the model and observations are in reasonable agreement for the near-tidal frequency waves. The peak of temperature spectra is always found near the shelf break region which steadily lost its intensity over the continental shelf. The calculation of Richardson number reflected the presence of local mixing due to density overturning in the shelf region. To understand further the generation and propagation of internal tides in the region, energy flux and conversion of barotropic-to-baroclinic M₂ tidal energy are examined. The model simulations suggest that the internal tide is generated all along the shelf slope. The energy flux analysis shows that the internal tides propagate to either side of the generation sites.     

Bioindicator role of tintinnid (Protozoa: Ciliophora) for water quality monitoring in Kalpakkam,Tamil Nadu,south east coast of India

The feasibility of a potential bioindicator based on functional groups of microzooplankton tintinnids for bioassessments of water quality status was studied during southwest monsoon (June to September) along the coastal waters of Kalpakkam, India during 2012–2015. The work highlights the following features (1) tintinnid community composed of 28 species belonging to 11 genera and 9 families, revealed significant differences among the four study sites (2) maximum numerical abundance (2224 ± 90 ind. l^? 1) and species diversity (H′ = 2.66) of tintinnid were recorded towards Bay of Bengal whereas minimum abundance (720 ± 35 ind. l^? 1) and diversity (H′ = 1.74) were encountered in the backwater sites, (3) multivariate analyses [RELATE, Biota-environment (BIOENV) and canonical analysis of principal coordinates (CAP)] reveal that chl a, nitrate and phosphate were the potential causative factors for tintinnid distribution. Based on the results, we suggest that tintinnids may be used as a potential bioindicator of water quality status in marine ecosystem.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Kakrapar atomic power station, Gujarat, India

Seismic ground motion caused by earthquakes mainly affects the constructions and structures around its area of influence. In this context, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a scientific step towards the safety analysis of any major construction such as nuclear power plant. Thus, the present study focused to estimate seismic hazard level at different probabilities for Kakrapar nuclear power plant located in the Western India. The hazard curves for the study area are developed following the procedure of PSHA suggested by Cornell–McGuire. Three source zones, Narmada-Tapti zone (NTZ), Rann of Kuchchh (ROK), and west passive margin (WPM), are classified on the basis of seismicity and tectonic setting of the study area. The estimated maximum magnitude (m _max) for NTZ, ROK, and WPM are 6.9 ± 0.57, 6.5 ± 0.64, and 6.1 ± 0.64, respectively. Logic tree approach has been used for the development of hazard curves to account the epistemic uncertainties associated with the analysis. For maximum credible earthquake [MCE, i.e., the probability of exceedance of 2 % in 50 years (return period of ~2,500 years)], the peak spectral acceleration (i.e., PSA at 0.2 s) expected around 5 km of the Kakrapar nuclear power plant (site) is 0.23 g from all source zones; however, at exact site location, it is 0.18 g. The PSA values due to NTZ, ROK, and WPM based on MCE are 0.22, 0.065, and 0.052 g, respectively. In case of design-based earthquake (DBE, i.e., 50 % probability in 50 years (return period of ~110 years)), the calculated maximum spectral acceleration (SA) from all source zones is about 0.045 g. The PSA distribution for the DBE from the NTZ has reached a maximum value of 0.042 g; however, PSA for ROK and WPM is considerably low with a maximum value of 0.022 and 0.021 g, respectively. Considering the MCE and DBE, the estimated PSA at 0.2 s has a highest value of ~0.23 g from all source zones. Spectral accelerations (SAs) correspond to different periods are presented, and SA plots for NTZ zone can be considered as response spectra for the KAPS site. Deaggregation of PSHA in the present study is also discussed. PGA values reported in seismic zonation map and global seismic hazard analysis program around the present study area range from 0.05 to 0.2 g which is slightly lower than the peak acceleration obtained in this study. The results of this study would facilitate in the performance of the site-specific seismic probabilistic safety analysis.     

Performance of Multi Model Canonical Correlation Analysis (MMCCA) for prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using GCMs output

The emerging advances in the field of dynamical prediction of monsoon using state-of-the-art General Circulation Models (GCMs) have led to the development of various multi model ensemble techniques (MMEs). In the present study, the concept of Canonical Correlation Analysis is used for making MME (referred as Multi Model Canonical Correlation Analysis or MMCCA) for the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) during June-July-August-September (JJAS). This method has been employed on the rainfall outputs of six different GCMs for the period 1982 to 2008. The prediction skill of ISMR by MMCCA is compared with the simple composite method (SCM) (i.e. arithmetic mean of all GCMs), which is taken as a benchmark. After a rigorous analysis through different skill metrics such as correlation coefficient and index of agreement, the superiority of MMCCA over SCM is illustrated. Performance of both models is also evaluated during six typical monsoon years and the results indicate the potential of MMCCA over SCM in capturing the spatial pattern during extreme years.     

Geochemistry and petrogenesis of pyrophyllite deposit of Madrangjodi,Keonjhar district,Orissa

Pyrophyllite deposit at Madrangjodi is a large lensoidal massif overlain unconformably by Dhanjori quartzite and underlain by the parent Singhbhum granite (Phase — II). Pyrophyllite and quartz are the major minerals with minor to trace amounts of muscovite, chloritoid opaques and tourmaline. It is broadly divisible into lamellar, granular and schistose varieties. SiO₂ (66.90–74.36%) and Al₂O₃ (20.80–27.54%) are the major oxides. The major elements data indicate its derivation from Singhbhum granite with depletion of SiO₂ and increment of Al₂O₃. Trace and REE data are discussed to corroborate its genesis.     

Performance of nested WRF model in typhoon simulations over West Pacific and South China Sea

Forecasting skill of weather research and forecasting (WRF) model in simulating typhoons over the West Pacific and South China Sea with different trajectories has been studied in terms of track direction and intensity. Four distinct types of typhoons are chosen for this study in such a way that one of them turns toward left during its motion and had landfall, while the second took a right turn before landfall. The third typhoon followed almost a straight line path during its course of motion, while the fourth typhoon tracked toward the coast and just before landfall, ceased its motion and travelled in reverse direction. WRF model has been nested in one way with a coarse resolution of 9?km and a fine resolution of 3?km for this study, and the experiments are performed with National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecasting System (NCEP-GFS) analyses and forecast fields. The model has been integrated up to 96?h and the simulation results are compared with observed and analyzed fields. The results show that the WRF model could satisfactorily simulate the typhoons in terms of time and location of landfall, mean sea-level pressure, maximum wind speed, etc. Results also show that the sensitivity of model resolution is less in predicting the track, while the fine-resolution model component predicted slightly better in terms of central pressure drop and maximum wind. In the case of typhoon motion speed, the coarse-resolution component of the model predicted the landfall time ahead of the actual, whereas the finer one produced either very close to the best track or lagging little behind the best track though the difference in forecast between the model components is minimal. The general tendency of track error forecast is that it increases almost linearly up to 48?h of model simulations and then it diverges quickly. The results also show that the salient features of typhoons such as warm central core, radial increase of wind speed, etc. are simulated well by both the coarse and fine domains of the WRF model.     

Prediction of severe tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during 2007–2010 using high-resolution mesoscale model

In this paper, the performance of a high-resolution mesoscale model for the prediction of severe tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during 2007?C2010 (Sidr, Nargis, Aila, and Laila) is discussed. The advanced Weather Research Forecast (WRF) modeling system (ARW core) is used with a combination of Yonsei University PBL schemes, Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization, and Ferrier cloud microphysics schemes for the simulations. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations are derived from global operational analysis and forecast products of the National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) available at 1°lon/lat resolution. The simulation results of the extreme weather parameters such as heavy rainfall, strong wind and track of those four severe cyclones, are critically evaluated and discussed by comparing with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated values. The simulations of the cyclones reveal that the cyclone track, intensity, and time of landfall are reasonably well simulated by the model. The mean track error at the time of landfall of the cyclone is 98?km, in which the minimum error was found to be for the cyclone Nargis (22?km) and maximum error for the cyclone Laila (304?km). The landfall time of all the cyclones is also fairly simulated by the model. The distribution and intensity of rainfall are well simulated by the model as well and were comparable with the TRMM estimates.