Probabilistic multi-model ensemble prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using general circulation models: A non-parametric approach

Probabilistic prediction has the ability to convey the intrinsic uncertainty of forecast that helps the decision makers to manage the climate risk more efficiently than deterministic forecasts. In recent times, probabilistic predictions obtained from the products from General Circulation Models (GCMs) have gained considerable attention. The probabilistic forecast can be generated in parametric (assuming Gaussian distribution) as well as non-parametric (counting method) ways. The present study deals with the non-parametric approach that requires no assumption about the form of the forecast distribution for the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) based on the hindcast run of seven general circulation models from 1982 to 2008. Probabilistic prediction from each of the GCM products has been generated by non-parametric methods for tercile categories (viz. below normal (BN), near-normal (NN), and above normal (AN)) and evaluation of their skill is assessed against observed data. Five different types of PMME schemes have been used for combining probabilities from each GCM to improve the forecast skill as compared to the individual GCMs. These schemes are different in nature of assigning the weights for combining probabilities. After a rigorous analysis through Rank Probability Skill Score (RPSS) and relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the superiority of PMME has been established over climatological probability. It is also found that, the performances of PMME1 and PMME3 are better than all the other methods whereas PMME3 has showed more improvement over PMME1.     

Imaging of sand lens at a barrage site in the Indian Himalaya — a case study using cross-hole seismic tomography

Drilling at the barrage site of a hydropower project usually gives a reasonable picture of the sub-surface rock mass condition. However, when the overburden (OB) comprising river borne materials is very thick and the basement rock is deep, the drilling results become unreliable. In the present case, the depth to the granitic gneiss basement is 45m from the river level and the height of the proposed diversion barrage is only 24.5 m. For this reason, stripping of the overburden up to the basement is not considered feasible. Cross-borehole seismic tomography (CST) was carried out at the barrage site to investigate the inclusions and structure of the OB material in order to facilitate a foundation design suitable for permeable formation. Three sets of CST surveys were carried out up to a depth of 30 m between the three vertical boreholes that were prepared at the vertices of an equilateral triangle with a separation of 17.8 m. The tomograms precisely imaged the nature and disposition of the different constituents of the overburden material. A lens shaped low velocity layer (LVL) with seismic velocity V_p=2000–2500 ms^?1 was mapped at a depth of 14.5m from the surface. Hence, it was recommended to shift the barrage axis by 50 m towards the downstream side of the proposed axis. The outcome of this study proved valuable for the designer who finalised the foundation design. Successful application of CST in OB characterisation has reiterated the need of such studies for barrage site investigations particularly in the Himalayan terrain.     

Massive scalar field in the Bianchi Type I space time

A class of exact solutions of Eistein's field equations with attractive massive scalar field in LRS Bianchi type I space time is obtained. It is shown that how the dynamical importance of the scalar field and the shear change in the course of evolution. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Bianchi type-I cosmological effective stiff fluid model in Saez and Ballester theory

The problem of viscous fluid distribution in Bianchi type I space-time is considered here in a new scalar tensor theory of gravitation proposed by Saez and Ballester (1986). Particular solutions of the field equations are derived assuming the viscous coefficient to be the power functions of energy density. Some physical and geometrical properties of the solutions are also discussed. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

An observational perspective on tropical cyclone activity over Indian seas in a warming environment

The genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs) over Indian seas comprising of Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS) is highly seasonal with primary maximum in postmonsoon season (mid-September to December) and secondary maximum during premonsoon season (April and May). The present study is focused to demonstrate changes in genesis and intensity of TCs over Indian seas in warming environment. For this purpose, observational data of TCs, obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), are analyzed. The sea surface temperature (SST), surface wind speed, and potential evaporation factor (PEF), obtained from the International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS), are also analyzed to examine the possible linkage with variations in TC activities over Indian seas. The study period has been divided into two epochs: past cooling period (PCP, period up to 1950) and current warming period (CWP, period after 1950) based on SST anomaly (became positive from 1950) over the BoB and AS. The study reveals that the number of severe cyclones (SCS) increases significantly (statistically significant at 99% confidence level) by about 41% during CWP though no such significant change is observed in cyclonic disturbances (CDs) and cyclones (CS) over Indian seas. It is also observed that the rate of dissipation of CS and SCS over Indian seas has been decreasing considerably by about 63 and 71%, respectively, during CWP. The analysis shows that the BoB contributes about 75% in each category of TCs and remaining 25% by the AS towards total of Indian seas. A detailed examination on genesis and intensity of TC over both the basins and the seasons illustrates that significant enhancement of SCS by about 65% during CWP is confined to the postmonsoon season of the BoB. Further, the BoB is sub-divided into northern, central, and southern sectors and the AS into western and eastern sectors based on genesis of TCs and SST gradient. Results show that in postmonsoon season during CWP, the number of SCS increases significantly by about 71% in southern BoB and 300% over western AS.     

Incompatibility of five dimensional LRS Bianchi type-V string and mesonic string cosmological models in general relativity

In this paper, we constructed some cosmological models in five dimensional LRS Bianchi type-V space time based on general theory of relativity. Further, it is shown that source density of the meson field does not survive either in massive scalar field or in mass less scalar field. Some physical and geometrical properties of the models are discussed.     

Effect of seasonal and cyclonic winds on internal tides over the Bay of Bengal

The influence of seasonal and cyclonic winds is studied on the characteristics of internal waves (IWs) over the western Bay of Bengal (BoB) by using MITgcm model. As the BoB experiences reversal of seasonal winds and also tropical cyclones during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon months, its effect is seen through the computation of spectral estimates of the IWs. It is seen that the peak estimate is associated with the semidiurnal frequency at all the depths and is found higher in May compared to November. This is attributed to the presence of shallow mixed layer depth and deep thermocline due to the upwelling favorable winds. The computation of isopycnal displacement infers that the internal tides are present from 40 to 120 m depth in case of upwelling favorable winds of May, whereas, the presence of internal tides is restricted between 90 and 120 m for the downwelling favorable winds of November. During May, the available potential energy is also seen in a narrow coastal stretch, whilst it is absent in November. During the Hudhud cyclone period of October 7–14, 2014, it is noticed from the spectral estimates that the IWs of tidal frequency are replaced by inertial frequency with a periodicity of about 2 days as a consequence of strong cyclonic winds. The progressive vector diagram shows the mean current is initially westward up to October 17, 2014 and then northeastward with well-defined clockwise circulation. The maximum radius of inertial oscillation of 15 km is observed. After the cyclone ceases, the estimate associated with inertial frequency slowly diminishes and enhances the estimates related to internal tides. The simulations also suggest that the internal tides are absent for about 6 weeks as a response of the cyclonic winds.

     

Alongshore Sediment Transport Near Tidal Inlets of Chilika Lagoon; East Coast of India

ABSTRACT

Chilika, a lagoon along the east coast of India, is undergoing transformation due to frequent shoreline change near inlet(s). Shoreline change near inlet includes change in position and shape of inlet, inlet channel length, and spit growth/erosion. These variable features of lagoon inlet(s) critically depend on alongshore sediment transport (LST) and discharge (water and sediment) from the lagoon to the sea. The LST and the processes responsible for sand spit growth/erosion, considered as important attributes of inlet stability, are the subject matter of the present investigation and hence the study assumes importance. The study includes integration of observational and modeling framework. Observations include nearshore wave, bathymetry, beach profile, shoreline and sediment grain size of spits while numerical modeling includes simulation of the wave using MIKE 21 Spectral Wave model and LST simulation using LITtoral DRIFT. The results indicate that the predominant wave directions as S and SSE, which induces round the year south to north alongshore transport with significant seasonal variation in magnitude. The estimated LST closely matches with previous studies near Chilika inlet and for other locations along the Odisha coast. Besides temporal variability, the study reveals spatial variability in alongshore transport near Chilika inlet and considers it as one of the important attributes along with northward spit growth for inlet migration/closure/opening.