Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nations

Southwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and by El Niño conditions (particularly over the eastern southwest Pacific region); this enhancement is primarily attributed to increased TC activity during these event periods. There are also indications of increasing intensities of TC-induced extreme rainfall events over the past few decades. A key part of this work involves development of sophisticated Bayesian regression models for individual island nations in order to better understand the synergistic relationships between TC-induced extreme rainfall and combinations of various climatic drivers that modulate the relationship. Such models are found to be very useful for not only assessing probabilities of TC- and non-TC induced extreme rainfall events but also evaluating probabilities of extreme rainfall for cases with different underlying climatic conditions. For example, TC-induced extreme rainfall probability over Samoa can vary from ~ 95 to ~ 75% during a La Niña period, if it coincides with an active or inactive phase of the MJO, and can be reduced to ~ 30% during a combination of El Niño period and inactive phase of the MJO. Several other such cases have been assessed for different island nations, providing information that have potentially important implications for planning and preparing for TC risks in vulnerable Pacific Island nations.

     

The twentieth century contiguous US temperature changes indicated by daily data and higher statistical moments

The daily surface air temperature data are used to assess the climate changes of the contiguous United States during the period of 1901 to 2000. The assessment is made through the first four statistical moments of the daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperature anomalies, the linear trends of the moments, and the changes of the anomalies?? probability density functions. The results on the first moment, i.e., the mean, are compared with the existing ones in terms of intra-annual means and their linear trends. Our first moment results agree with known ones and demonstrate a decrease from the 1930s to the 1960s and an increase from the 1970s to 2000. The temperature fluctuation is the smallest in the 1960s among the decades from 1931 to 2000. The trends of the higher (second-, third- and fourth-order) moments of the mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures are calculated for the periods 1901?C2000, 1910?C1945, 1946?C1975, and 1976?C2000. The results show a decreasing trend of the second- and third-order moments of all the temperatures. The fourth-order moments of the mean and maximum surface air temperatures have increasing trends, but that of the minimum surface air temperature has a decreasing trend. The seasonal histograms of the mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures are calculated for the three periods 1910?C1945, 1946?C1975, and 1976?C2000 for the stations which have the largest trend of maximum daily surface air temperature. An obvious change has been identified in the probability density functions. Among the changes of statistical parameters, the ones for the minimum temperature are larger than those for the maximum and mean temperatures.     

Australian east coast rainfall decline related to large scale climate drivers

Rainfall on the subtropical east coast of Australia has declined at up to 50?mm per decade since 1970. Wavelet analysis is used to investigate eight station and four station-averaged rainfall distributions along Australia??s subtropical east coast with respect to the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and the southern annular mode (SAM). The relationships are examined further using composite atmospheric circulation anomalies. Here we show that the greatest rainfall variability occurs in the 15?C30?year periodicity of the 1948?C1975 or ??cool?? phase of the IPO when the subtropical ridge is located sufficiently poleward for anomalous moist onshore airflow to occur together with high ENSO rainfall variability and high, negative phase, SAM variability. Thus, the mid-latitude westerlies are located at their most equatorward position in the Australian region. This maximizes tropospheric interaction of warm, moist tropical air with enhanced local baroclinicity over the east coast, and hence rainfall.     

Cytochrome P4501A biomarker indication of the timeline of chronic exposure of Barrow's goldeneyes to residual Exxon Valdez oil

We examined hepatic EROD activity, as an indicator of CYP1A induction, in Barrow’s goldeneyes captured in areas oiled during the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill and those from nearby unoiled areas. We found that average EROD activity differed between areas during 2005, although the magnitude of the difference was reduced relative to a previous study from 1996/1997, and we found that areas did not differ by 2009. Similarly, we found that the proportion of individuals captured from oiled areas with elevated EROD activity (?2 times unoiled average) declined from 41% in winter 1996/1997 to 10% in 2005 and 15% in 2009. This work adds to a body of literature describing the timelines over which vertebrates were exposed to residual Exxon Valdez oil and indicates that, for Barrow’s goldeneyes in Prince William Sound, exposure persisted for many years with evidence of substantially reduced exposure by 2 decades after the spill.     

Anticipating ubiquitous computing: Logics to forecast technological futures

Visions of the future predict spaces apparently teaming with ever more novel and pervasive technologies. Significant amongst such forecasts is the notion of ‘ubiquitous computing’ (ubicomp), understood as an affordance or capacity tied (in)to people, places and things. This article stages an encounter between the futurity of ubicomp and recent debates in geography around anticipation. So, first, the future orientation in ubicomp research and development (R&D) is investigated as a mode of anticipation. ‘Knowledges’, and ‘logics’ of anticipation are subsequently, and second, discussed as the conceptual apparatus that constructs and perpetuates the ‘proximate future’ of ubicomp. This analysis connects recent discussion about ‘anticipation’ in social sciences research with the methods of ubicomp research, which fits with an emergent agenda around futurity in human geography. Third, the conceptual articulation of ‘anticipatory logic’ is applied to the analysis of empirical investigations of ubicomp R&D to identify the specific logics of anticipation at play. This article accordingly examines the logics of anticipation that both support and destabilise the certainty with which the future is imagined within ubicomp. In conclusion, the multiple ways of anticipating a future world and the ways in which they discipline understandings of futurity are framed as a politics of anticipation.     

Efficient Cable Shovel Excavation in Surface Mines

The cable shovel is widely used in surface mining. High operating and ownership costs necessitate efficient use of the cable shovel. Operator practices have long been suspected to contribute towards the inefficient use of the shovel. Crowd arm and hoist rope speeds are key measures of operator practices. The objective of this work is to find the crowd arm and hoist rope speeds for optimal shovel performance for given initial conditions and material properties. Shovel kinematics and dynamic modeling, using shovel geometry and the simultaneous constraint method, respectively, have been employed to build models of the excavation process. Dynamic models of the shovel payload and the material cutting resistance have also been developed using geometric simulation and passive soil pressures techniques, respectively. These models are solved numerically by combining Runge–Kutta and Gaussian elimination algorithms to compute the work done and the resistive forces during shovel excavation. The algorithms have been combined into a shovel simulator. The simulator has been used to simulate the P&H 2100BL shovel. The simulation results indicate that input energy and digging time increase with increasing crowd arm and decreasing hoist rope speeds. The input energy per unit loading rate is proposed as an appropriate measure of shovel performance. High energy per unit loading rate occurs for high crowd speeds and low hoist rope speeds. For the simulated conditions and crowd arm and hoist rope speeds ranging from 0.25 to 0.5 ms⁻¹ and 0.5 to 0.7 ms⁻¹, respectively, the optimal crowd arm and hoist rope speeds were found to be 0.25 ms⁻¹ and 0.7 ms⁻¹, respectively, and the objective function value was 0.21 KJs/kg. This work establishes, theoretically, the fact that operator practices have an effect on shovel performance and is useful in establishing optimum practices. The results are the initial steps towards full automation of the excavation process.     

A conceptual framework of groundwater flow in some crystalline aquifers in Southeastern Ghana

A conceptual groundwater flow model was developed for the crystalline aquifers in southeastern part of the Eastern region, Ghana. The objective was to determine approximate levels of groundwater recharge, estimate aquifer hydraulic parameters, and then test various scenarios of groundwater extraction under the current conditions of recharge. A steady state groundwater flow model has been calibrated against measured water levels of 19 wells in the area. The resulting recharge is estimated to range from 8.97 × 10^?5 m/d to 7.14 × 10^?4 m/d resulting in a basin wide average recharge of about 9.6% of total annual precipitation, which results in a basin wide quantitative recharge of about 2.4 million m³/d in the area. This compares to recharge estimated from the chloride mass balance of 7.6% of precipitation determined in this study. The general groundwater flow in the area has also been determined to conform to the general northeast–southwest structural grain of the country. The implication is that the general hydrogeology is controlled by post genetic structural entities imposed on the rocks to create ingresses for sufficient groundwater storage and transport. Calibrated aquifer hydraulic conductivities range between 0.99 m/d and over 19.4 m/d. There is a significant contribution of groundwater discharge to stream flow in the study area. Increasing groundwater extraction will have an effect on stream flow. This study finds that the current groundwater extraction levels represent only 0.17% of the annual recharge from precipitation, and that groundwater can sustain future increased groundwater demands from population growth and industrialization.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Scombroclupea occidentalis</Emphasis> sp. nov. (Clupeiformes,Teleostei) from the Cenomanian (Cretaceous) Plattenkalk deposits of NE Mexico

A new species of the clupeid genus Scombroclupea is described from the Upper Cretaceous (Cenomanian) Plattenkalk locality “Loma la Mula” in Coahuila, northeastern Mexico. The material provides new osteological data for the genus, which clarify its systematic position. The Mexican Scombroclupea points to an occurrence of the genus in the western Tethys and indicates a vicariant event between S. macrophthalma from Lebanon and Croatia and the new species described herein. The analysis of the functional morphology of Scombroclupea supports the reconstruction of an oscillatory locomotion mode in this genus.     

Response of juvenile lemon sharks, Negaprion brevirostris, to a magnetic barrier simulating a beach net

Beach nets are preventative devices used to minimize interactions between potentially harmful sharks and unsuspecting swimmers. Quantitative studies demonstrated that beach nets drastically reduced local elasmobranch populations, as well as caused considerable bycatch mortality. For this experiment, a beach net-like device was constructed and the behaviors of six juvenile lemon sharks (Negaprion brevirostris) were analyzed. Induced by olfactory and gustatory cues, sharks were given the choice to swim through a magnetic or control opening in the net. In the first trial, all six sharks avoided the magnetic region and significantly preferred to swim through the control region of the fence. The magnetic stimulus no longer affected the swimming behavior of three sharks retested after resting 24 h. Results from the retested sharks were correlated with those from repeated tonic immobility trials, which demonstrated a linear decrease in sensitivity to repeated magnetic stimulation. This study serves as a baseline experiment demonstrating that permanent magnets may substantially decrease elasmobranch mortality within beach nets.     

Examining locally driven climate change policy efforts in three Pacific states

Local jurisdictions play a critical role in climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study analyzes the theoretical framework of locally driven climate change actions and uses geographic information system (GIS) to map local jurisdictions’ climate change policy efforts in three Pacific states - California, Oregon, and Washington. The results of our study indicate statistically significant differences in geographic clusters and variations across jurisdictions. An Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model was used to examine climate risk, emission stress, and socioeconomic context variables to detect influence on local climate change policy efforts. The explanatory results indicate that coastal proximity, population density, vehicles emission, and education variables significantly influence local jurisdictions’ climate change actions. The findings contribute to local organizational decision model research and can help local communities to develop more effective climate change policies.